AFL Round 4

Western Bulldogs -12.5
Was liking the bulldogs already before lloyd named out, and wow has the line jumped... was -6.5 and now -12.5 on average.  This will be similar for Essendon to where they played Geelong, their new fast paced running game will break down when against a superior midfield who play the same game better.  Bulldogs have a fast midfield and a lot of skilled players who dispose of the ball more cleanly than the bombers.  Essendon now also have their two best forward targets out as Lloyd is joining Lucas (injury round 1) on the sidelines.  I'm thinking the dogs cover the line quite comfortably here with a 30-40 point win.  Get on it soon, as I think the line will only get higher... I'm grading this as -12.5 which is about average on the market, -10.5 available at some shops.


3-0 Last week brings us to 9-4 for the season against the spread, hopefully can continue for a season similar to last year.

Lets do this shit

Help me out guys......my bloody vanilla book still has a crazy line up for grabs (no details right now) and it is better than anything posted on this site by far.

Was going in on the Bombers anyway, but now am absolutely tempted to pound the shit outta this unbelievable line.

How sure, 60%, 70%, 85%+, are you that the Bombers win by at least a goal and a couple behinds?

Cheers!  Get back quick....I am fearful of that line jumping! 

FARQUE!  Sorry, meant I was going in on the BULLDOGS.  Bloody so giddy at this line I got momentarily confused!!! 

Yes they should do it, but you need to realise that in australian football the line per point doesn't have as much value as it does in NFL or most other US sports.  The result of a game is rarely at or abouts the set line... of course always good to shop around. 

Perhaps bet a little larger than normal, but don't pound the shit out of it to extreme.

Yes, I know the lines are usually way off as to the final result, but it is about value.  When the line jumps massively and my book hasn't moved.....it is a huge sign that I am on the right side.

Ex.: I got 6.5 with Penrith even after Farah was ruled out and OZ and Europe had moved to 3. 

If the books are moving the Dogs anywhere from -12 to -13.5, etc., (my main book has them at -13.5), then the line I have is surely value.

Tempted to pound this.  No Jetta, Lylod, Lucas........how do the Bombers do this?  I can't see it....

Any other thoughts?

OK, jumped in.

Bulldogs -7.5 @ 1.87

and

Bulldogs -7.5 @1.77 after I saw the vig shake.....

All good signs!

Let's get this done!

FINAL PICKS

Western Bulldogs -12.5
Geelong -24.5     (going to this game)
Sydney -25.5
Hawthorn -15.5
Collingwood -24.5


No Dogs this week :)  Good luck.
Might be some brief comments on the games to come.

mercurial, yep, I fully understand the difference between the NRL and AFL and the importance of points in both leagues....however, big line jumps in the NRL and AFL rarely happen week-in and week-out.  The book set the line on Tuesday or Wednesday, they come out and usually stay that way, give a half-point or so in one direction.  I am not talking about getting a couple extra points here so that I will be 2 or 3 times are likely to win....it is the mentality of the books and how they play/move the line which flashes their hand...and shows the true value on a certain side.


For example, when the opening line is at -7.5, I expect it to stay thereabouts.  I also know that that line has been fully figured with the thought of Lloyd playing.  Lloyd is subsequently ruled out.....and bam, the books jump by a full goal (!) to -12.5 or 13.5.    Now, yes, while a few times out of some, that goal difference might be the difference between winning and losing your wager, that isn't what I am concerned about, though it is definitely nice.  The fact that the line is immediately taken offline and then returns, jumping a whopping six points tells me that the books feel that Lloyd is detrimental to the Bombers success in this game.  Now, that might seem like common sense to any AFL fan, but you tell me what other Bomber that would be ruled out could affect a line like that?  Now, at my book, I get the line and vig at a price pre-ruled out Lloyd and have the full advantage of getting to barrack a side that will play against him.

Same with Penrith this past Monday.  +6.5 with Farah in for Wests...seems about right considering Campbelltown's history and the Penrith's recent form against the Tigers.  Farah is ruled out, books go offline ............books return at +4.5 then down to +3 at gametime.....I can still get +6.5 @ 1.83.  A great number now that I know what the book feel Farah's value will be to his side if they are willing to cut more than 50% off the head-start.  The 3.5 points may or may not actually determine the win/loss of the wager, but it is the ability to see the shifting of the line and the reaction of the books that make the value of such a bet much more sharp.

OK, off of my soapbox. 



I am sure you understand all of that, but just wanted to make my original point clear.

Cheers and let's get this done!

Also, my book had closed down the ML wagering on the Ess/WB game a little while after Lloyd was ruled out...........while keeping open all MLs on the other remaining matches.  This is a dead give-away that themselves tip the Bulldogs to come away with the win.  Otherwise, they would keep it open at an attractive price to lure in wagers.

Additionally, strangely enough, the movement at my book has not changed on the line (-7.5, post-Lloyd) after early morning wagering, but the vig has dropped considerably from 1.87 to 1.77.  Usually, books here will drop a line to 1.83 or 1.80 at the most and then re-shift the line and re-adjust the vig.  -7.5 @ 1.87 then goes to -8.5 @1.91, etc.  My book decided not to do that, tipping me off that they feel the Bulldogs would win and cover this match by more than 9 or 10.  By leaving the vig at 30 cents off the dollar instead of adding in an extra point or two, they ultimately pay less out to Bulldogs backers than they would with an adjusted line-shift.

Good of you to share your thoughts HeadOverHeart.

Thanks gmanea....this is a great forum and an even better bunch of guys we have on it.  We always share our tips and picks and wagers, but I just wanted to share a little at how I approach each round, apart from the statistical route.

Yeah I think we take pride in this forum of covers, much better place to post than the NBA and other main forums.  That's why when some dick head comes in here talking shit we are usually quick to jump on it.

By the way guys, I'll be there at the game to make sure Geelong win and cover the line so don't you worry about that bet :)

wow!!!! What a HUGE last qtr from the bulldogs

Dogs get it done!!! 

That 4th Quarter was brilliant to say the least, although the Don injuries helped.  Still think a WB fightback would have been on the cards though as they are a much-fitter side than people have caught onto yet and would have out-paced the young Bombers anyway.  They were able to keep up with the Crows when the Crows had them one foot in, poured in most of their goals against Melbourne in the 2nd Half, and were able to come back against a defensively stout Saints side by just out-running and out-gunning.  The stamina of this team is well worth noting. 

That's what we like to see, lots of people winning.

No pity on the books here mate.  My local is now moving the line mere minutes after I place mine in....I am starting to get suspicious.  In a good way...

Let's keep working together to make it happen.  We make a good team on this and the Rugby forum. 

Cover's crew was brutal last night. Lets keep it going Gents.

gmanea.....let's get it going buddy for the Cats! 

Thanks gmanea for getting it done at Telstra for us today!  Would be lying if I said I wasn't sweating for a bit though...har har...