All Forums | Other

AFL Rd 8

...
Participants:
Search
Views: 349
Posts: 25
 
Banned
Participation Meter
Joined: Jul, 2007
Posts: 2501
Posted: #1
Record: Normal 4-3 (with one silly bet on the Hall of Fame Game!)
             POW 4-0
 
Looking Looking Looking...found one I believe, a gem!
 
POW Adel -38.5
 
Only conern is 'maybe' the weather, but it should be 18, drizzell, partly cloudy and 1mm of rain as per 'weather.com.au/sa/adelaide', so it's all good.
 
Reasons for the pick:
 
- Always love sides that are playing interstate, simply means a fade against these sides, and you will find I very rarely take sides that play interstate (West Coast Vs Port where I had Port was the only time this year was the only time I when against this). Let's not forget that Melb (and now Ess) are the worst sides in the comp, ave losing margin for Melb is 60.30 and Ess is 60.40, and now they are playing Adel at AMMI where the Crows are 4-0.
- We are looking at sides that are heading in opposite directions, Adel is looking at setting up their season in the next 4 games against Melb (AAMI), West Coast (Subi), Ess (AAMI) and Rich (Melb).  After this they play Haw (AAMI), Bris (Gabba) & Geel (AMMI), thus this game plays even more significance to their top 4 chances at the end of the year.  And then we look at Melb....well what do you say, they have used 34 players to date, and only Ess has used more players in 35, thus this week and all coming weeks are decision time for the coaching staff at Melb, and thus more than likely a 'clean out' at the end of the year.
- As I mentioned before I have my inside sources when it comes to Adel sides, and word is that they trained hard last week, had Thurs, Fri & Sat off, but trained again on Sun (and remember this week is a Sun game...coincidence I think not), and again reasonably hard training this week also, so the Crows actually used this week to try and gain 'extra' fitness on sides  scary considering that IMO they are one of the most professional sides in the comp at work rate and overall fitness.
- This brings me to my next point.  According to the AFL website Melb haven't won a 1st or 2nd Quarter all year , not a good sign when you consider they are playing Adel at AMMI and up against a side that has lost only two games to Bulldogs & Haw (2 undefeated sides in the comp so far and both sides sitting 2nd & 3rd). 
- Then we put in Adelaide that have won 2 1st Quarters, and 6 2nd Quarters, now only Geel & Haw are the other two sides that have won 6 2nd Quarters (and both of those sides are sitting 1st & 2nd). And just for the record Melb have won 1 3rd Quarter & 4 4th Quarters, while Adel have won 3 3rd Quarters & 4 4th Quarters.
-  Adelaide's ave winning margin over Melb at AMMI is 64.25 points, and throw in the fact that Adel is in the top 3 defence, I really don't see where Melb will get any scoring power from
 
There you have it gentleman, only one play for the week, but I believe it is a gem.  My only other lean for this week was the Western Bulldogs, but as they are playing interstate (and as mentioned above I really don't like playing sides who are travelling interstate). 
 
And just to let you guys know Josh Carr (from Freo) sent Chad Cornes a text message after they lost to Melb a couple of weeks ago saying that he is very unhappy with things at Docker land, just a bit of info you guys might use this weekend, or def in the coming weeks when they simply give up on playing finals later in the year!
 
GL this week, and remember that 'all' sports are played 90% above the shoulders
 
Banned
Participation Meter
Joined: Jul, 2007
Posts: 2501
Posted: #2
Interesting to note that both Saturday games (Haw Vs Port in Tas & Geel Vs Rich at MCG) 'should' be played in very tough conditions...just some food for thought
 
All-Star
Participation Meter
Joined: May, 2005
Posts: 12254
Posted: #3
 
Captain
Participation Meter
Joined: Dec, 2003
Posts: 7174
Posted: #4
That is a pretty big call not just for a team that is sitting lower on the table but for a ground / state where low totals are the norm. GL though.
 
Captain
Participation Meter
Joined: Dec, 2003
Posts: 7174
Posted: #5
Miracle sorry mate not sure if you are aware they are playing at Aurora in Tasmania not in SA.
 
Banned
Participation Meter
Joined: Jul, 2007
Posts: 2501
Posted: #6
Quote Originally Posted by ecoute:

That is a pretty big call not just for a team that is sitting lower on the table but for a ground / state where low totals are the norm. GL though.

Which game are you talking about, as I already stated that the Port game is in Tas? It is just food for thought as that game will be wet and windy...like it is in Adel at the moment.

And my Adel pick is in Adel on Sun at 1pm approx.

 
Hall of Fame
Participation Meter
Joined: Nov, 2007
Posts: 22502
Posted: #7
Miracle........was Carr's text message meaning that the players were unhappy (low morale) currently at the club?
 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: Apr, 2007
Posts: 1378
Posted: #8
Good luck mate.
 
For myself, I'd be weary of laying big chalk until I know how wet its going to be.
 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: Apr, 2007
Posts: 1252
Posted: #9
Good of cornes to share the message.
 
Reilley in for Adelaide, assuming he plays listed on extended bench, is a big plus, he is a cut above their other young mid fielders excluding porplyzia.
 
They were saying on fox footy teams last night that Adelaide practice half time at training.
 
Weather is a concern for most games it seems. Wet and windy forecast for Sydney on Sunday.
 
 
Captain
Participation Meter
Joined: Dec, 2003
Posts: 7174
Posted: #10
Quote Originally Posted by Miracle1976:

Which game are you talking about, as I already stated that the Port game is in Tas? It is just food for thought as that game will be wet and windy...like it is in Adel at the moment.

And my Adel pick is in Adel on Sun at 1pm approx.

Sorry mate I didn't read your post properly. I only caught this paragraph

POW Adel -38.5
 
Only conern is 'maybe' the weather, but it should be 18, drizzell, partly cloudy and 1mm of rain as per 'weather.com.au/sa/adelaide', so it's all good.
 
Captain
Participation Meter
Joined: Dec, 2003
Posts: 7174
Posted: #11
GL this week, and remember that 'all' sports are played 90% above the shoulders
 
Unless you are John Hopoate
 
Banned
Participation Meter
Joined: Jul, 2007
Posts: 2501
Posted: #12
HOH - Yes Carr was referring to bad moral at the club at the moment.

ecourte - rather back Adel's ability to score, than back Melb as the Adel defence works very well together.  No drama's about mis-reading my post, and weather here isn't good today, but by Sun as the game goes on it should be a good day. And poor old Hopoate...WTF was he thinking
 
binomial - was good of Cornes to share the message, the boys and I at training don't understand why he did...maybe his dad Graham wants him to say 'interesting' things on radio for ratings purpose. I can tell you for sure that as per the extended bench on the AFL website that Jacky, McGregor & Jericho won't play, can't reveal my source, but to say that it run's deep. You are correct, Adel has been practising half time now for a couple of weeks, and since then they have won 'all' 3rd quarters, and this week they practised the new 'inter change' rules that Malthouse was upset about yesterday.  And as for your weather comment in Syd on Sun, looks like being true as by then this weather front will have made it to the East coast.
 
tozer - not worried as much as anyone would be worried backing Melb with the plus points if the weather conditions are not flash, but by Sun it will be 'ok' and besides, the grounds these days hold up very well when we get rain when compared to 20 years ago.
 
GL everyone, and more thoughts still welcome. 
 
Banned
Participation Meter
Joined: Jul, 2007
Posts: 2501
Posted: #13
And while I'm in a typing mod, I'll throw in a prediction.....Peter Bell to retire mid season
 
Banned
Participation Meter
Joined: Jul, 2007
Posts: 2501
Posted: #14
After some thought...going to play the Siants as a normal play +10.5
 
Would like to put more thoughts to allow discussion but main reason is that Collingwood wins this year have been against Freo (in Melb), Rich, North Melb and Ess with their three loses against Bris (at Gabba), Carl & Haw, and in their two night meeting they have lost both.
 
The Siants have beaten Syd (in Melb), Carl, Ess and Rich with loses to Bulldogs (3rd), Geel (1st) and Port (in Adel) who are a top 8 side...so I'll take my chances with the +10.5, and they start very well the Siants (won 5 out of 7 1st Quarters), and I firmly believe they have a great advantage in the Ruck and big forwards against Collingwoods smaller defenders. And the Siants are 4-2 at night, thus playing 6 out of the possible 7 games to date at night.
 
GL, and read into those comments as you wish
 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: Apr, 2007
Posts: 1252
Posted: #15
I liked Collingwood earlier in the week but have lost my enthusiasm.
 
Another factor is Collingwood lost 3/3 at the TD last season. Decent teams WB, Hawthorn and Adelaide but still suggests they don't play the ground well.
 
Thinking about Collingwood 1-40.
 
Banned
Participation Meter
Joined: Jul, 2007
Posts: 2501
Posted: #16
Thankyou Birss, and nice hit binomial if you took Coll 1-40 
 
Banned
Participation Meter
Joined: Jul, 2007
Posts: 2501
Posted: #17
And just letting everyone know that Reilly is out and Jericho is in, as they just wanted to give Reilly another weeks rest. 
 
 
Hall of Fame
Participation Meter
Joined: Nov, 2007
Posts: 22502
Posted: #18
So, Miracle, if per Carr's message, then I'd reckon you'd be having a bit of the Bulldogs this round, no?

What's your take on that match?
 
Banned
Participation Meter
Joined: Jul, 2007
Posts: 2501
Posted: #19

Quote Originally Posted by HeadOverHeart:

So, Miracle, if per Carr's message, then I'd reckon you'd be having a bit of the Bulldogs this round, no?

What's your take on that match?

Not just yet I won't take backing against Freo as IMO they are still in with a chance of making the finals (even though they are 1-6)only because it is early in the season and that's what the players will be thinking, as I have been there before with sides as a player....therefore later in the season you will find that Freo will get smashed 'if' finals are not in contention...and more than likely it will be a game interstate, and thus I will wiat and be patient for the 'right' time.

Ok...I just looked at their draw and Freo have some 'fairly' easy games when you compare to a lot of other sides, and still plenty of games at home.  Therefore, it might be a little wait until about after half way when they are struggling just that little more, they do play Geel in Geel Rd15 (which is a long way off I know, but can't do much about that).  If you look at the draw you will see what I mean.

I won't be playing this game.  'The more games that a team wins (Bulldogs 6 if you take out the draw) in a row...the closer they are to defeat'.  That's how the saying goes, and that's the way I'm looking at this game, and the fact that I really don't like picking  teams that are playing interstate, and also the fact that Freo were more than competitive against Geel 2 weeks ago. 

Too risky for me, but GL if you play it  

 
Hall of Fame
Participation Meter
Joined: Nov, 2007
Posts: 22502
Posted: #20
Quote Originally Posted by Miracle1976:

Not just yet I won't take backing against Freo as IMO they are still in with a chance of making the finals (even though they are 1-6)only because it is early in the season and that's what the players will be thinking, as I have been there before with sides as a player....therefore later in the season you will find that Freo will get smashed 'if' finals are not in contention...and more than likely it will be a game interstate, and thus I will wiat and be patient for the 'right' time.

Ok...I just looked at their draw and Freo have some 'fairly' easy games when you compare to a lot of other sides, and still plenty of games at home.  Therefore, it might be a little wait until about after half way when they are struggling just that little more, they do play Geel in Geel Rd15 (which is a long way off I know, but can't do much about that).  If you look at the draw you will see what I mean.

I won't be playing this game.  'The more games that a team wins (Bulldogs 6 if you take out the draw) in a row...the closer they are to defeat'.  That's how the saying goes, and that's the way I'm looking at this game, and the fact that I really don't like picking  teams that are playing interstate, and also the fact that Freo were more than competitive against Geel 2 weeks ago. 

Too risky for me, but GL if you play it  



Thank you for the great insight.  That is just what I wanted to hear.  Good stuff.  Will definitely back off plunking down huge on the Dogs, and if I do, will be light.

Thank you again, and I swear, this forum is the most intelligent bunch of punters on this entire site.  Imagine if the rest of the forums had this level of insight and understanding of their games.  Wow.


 
Legend
Participation Meter
Joined: Feb, 2005
Posts: 102561
Posted: #21

Might tail you here Miracle with the Crows, are they your favourite team?

good luck

 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: Apr, 2007
Posts: 1378
Posted: #22
Me too, better weather toady in Adelaide, can't see how the Dees will score more than just a few goals.
 
Legend
Participation Meter
Joined: Feb, 2005
Posts: 102561
Posted: #23
Nice one Miracle, easy win for the Crows 
 
Banned
Participation Meter
Joined: Jul, 2007
Posts: 2501
Posted: #24
Quote Originally Posted by rod_steel:

Might tail you here Miracle with the Crows, are they your favourite team?

good luck

They are not the team I follow, that is Essendon...but any teams that I pick and they 'cover' are my favourite

I tend to look more at the Adel based sides simply because I live here, and thus find more info on them plus the fact I have a few sources within the clubs that help with my capping.

As for the 'easy' cover...I would have felt even better if Adel had of converted more in the third quarter, 3 goals 9 points is not good, but they got the job done

 
 
Hall of Fame
Participation Meter
Joined: Nov, 2007
Posts: 22502
Posted: #25
All Forums | Other
About Us
Contact Us
Careers
Our Team
Brand
Testimonials
Betting Guides
Sportsbook Reviews
Betting News
Podcasts
Responsible Gambling
Betting Sites
US Betting Sites
Canada Betting Sites
Canada Casinos
Best Betting Apps
Contests
Streak Survivor
King of Covers
Ultimate Race
Office Pools
The Covers community has
810,221
lifetime members worldwide
Covers 30 Years Logo Established in 1995,
Covers is the world
leader in sports
betting information.
21+
Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER
Help Privacy Privacy Choices Terms of Service Cookies Sitemap Forum
Covers is verified safe by:
Evalon Logo Logo GPWA Logo GDPR logo Logo GeoTrust logo Logo
Covers Logo
Copyright © 1995 - 2026 Genius Sports. All Rights Reserved.
If you choose to make use of any information on this website including online sports betting services from any websites that may be featured on this website, we strongly recommend that you carefully check your local laws before doing so.It is your sole responsibility to understand your local laws and observe them strictly.Covers does not provide any advice or guidance as to the legality of online sports betting or other online gambling activities within your jurisdiction and you are responsible for complying with laws that are applicable to you in your relevant locality.Covers disclaims all liability associated with your use of this website and use of any information contained on it.As a condition of using this website, you agree to hold the owner of this website harmless from any claims arising from your use of any services on any third party website that may be featured by Covers.