AFL Rd 10

Hi everyone.  This the period during the year when things get very tough, thus you won't see too many POW's from me unless of course something special pops up...but the lines makers' are getting very sharp IMO.

 

Ok, enough of the pleasantries and on to my record:

 

 

Silly multi last week that cost me a perfect round, not silly because of the teams that I picked, but more due to the fact that multi's are bad for you when it comes to a long term punter... I should have learnt by now not to do them  

 

On to the games, well just one game for this week...

 

Normal Play - Kangaroo's +24.5 Vs Bris and I am breaking one of my rules in that I have gone for a sie playing interstate...but only time will tell if I am correct.  Reasons for the pick:

 

-  Brisbane's wins really haven't been against much, Coll (2), Port (20), Mel (52), Carl (32) & St Kilda (46).  Apart from Coll the rest might not even make the 8, or if they do will just make up the numbers as they certainly won't finish in the top 4 which is where you need to be in modern day AFL footy to have a realistic chance of winning the flag IMO

 

- On the other hand the Kangaroo's wins have been against Rich (41), Melb (48), Coll (7), West Coast (6), Bulldogs (3) and with a draw against Syd.  I just think that comparing the sides they both have beaten that the Kangaroo's look better placed, and while I haven't stated who both side's have lost to I believe that the Roo's again have played the much better sides.

 

- Both sides match up very well here, the Roo's backline is much more equiped with the bigger bodies to handle the Bris forwards, plus the added fact that they help each other very well.  Neither side has the added advantage of pace, and I believe this game wil turn into a fight all the way to the end.

 

- Playing in Bris isn't as huge an advantage as it would normally be due to the Kangaroo's playing enough games in the suuny state over the past year or so, and also the heat factor shouldn't be an issue as this game is played at night. Add the fact that the Kangarro's have headed interstate twice this year against Adel for a loss, and against West Coast at the Gold Coast for a win... why is important to state those two games??  In my view they got touched up in Adel because Adel are a very very good side at home, should finish in the top 5 as a bear minimum, and the Roo's had distrations that week due to the issues regarding the draw they played out in against Syd the week before. As for the other game, put that down to experience in that now matter how we look at everything we do in life, everything comes back to experience and learning, and thus I think that as the Kangaroo's have been behind the last few weeks at half time only to come back, therefore IMO one of their main focus will be on starting well in this game, and as such I would rather be 'hopefully' on the right side of a team that starts well, and with the plus points then be behind and play catch-up footy to try and cover the spread.

 

GL to everyone and let's hope we have some winners this week.. but tread carefully.    

 

P.S. Going to the game tomorrow Adel Vs Ess.... wonder what I will get from the Bomber's in the Friday night footy spot light... should be interesting

L-O-V-E this game and will 99% most likely be on the Roos as well.

 

GL Miracle,

 

+24.5 is very enticing to take the kangas. I won't be given their huge injury list and Wells being out. I hope you get the money.

You don't rate Wells?

Will the weather play a part in that game? Apparently it has been piss pooring the last two days.

Hey Guys,

I know that there is a lot of other matches and opportunities this weekend but I love the saints. I can see them blowing out the dees. Firstly they have shown glimpses of being a good side this year and certainly have the playing list. However the main reason is the fact that their integrity and effort has been under attack all week from the media and even the coach. This can only mean a huge increase in effort. And we all saw what greater effort and intensity equates last week in the pies/cats match, where the better side lost to a group with much more intensity.

 

I loaded up a for a decent chunk of change on the saints at -22.5

 

Thoughts???

GL Mate

good luck miracle

 

kelz the pick looks good not rock solid cause the saints havent been playing well this year while the last couple of weeks melb have played fired up as they need wins on the board to avoid that wooden spoon so wouldnt be surprised if melb covered or saints won comfortably by 30 or more.

rod crows won by 138 at AAMI in a night game in 2006.

 

that said i am thinking about taking essendon. crows don't often score much over 100 (none over 110 from 6 in 2007) in night games at AAMI. If Essendon toughen up they might be able to keep them to less than 20 goals and score a few with Lucas back.

 

essendon may fire up given they beat crows twice last year.

why has the hawthorn v WB line moved so much? is mitchell out for Hawthorn?

i sort of like kangas given forecast is wet and windy.

 

few teams appeared to have faded in the fourth quarter after playing the late sunday game.

 

seems to be money for kangas.

Thanks HoH. A goal movement for Crawford suprises me even though he has been playing well.

 

I played WB 1-39 $2.85 seems better value to me.

Hi guys, sorry I haven't posted 'all' day, but had a training day at work....and just got back from watching the Crows Vs Bombers game...we nearly pinched it, 5 points

 

Upgrading my play to a POW due to the weather.  When I was typing this game in last night I was seriously considering it as a POW anyway, only fact that scared me off was that North are playing interstate...and you all should know my thoughts on this fact when capping games. The points spread is now 20.5, and I suggest if you are going to play this game, then take it now as this game 'will' get ugly....and this will suit the Kangroo's down to a tee.  I have often said to many people that coaches like to have sides play the way 'they' used to play, and this game is exactly the same way that Laidley used to play!!!!

 

binomial - very good bet with the Bulldogs 1-39 because 'if' they win then this simply won't be by much especially as they are playing this game in Tassie...might even throw a couple of bucks on this game also, shit loads of money for the Dog's.

 

tozer - I think that Wells is a better than average player, but not the star that alot of people say he is simply because he is too inconsistant, and also due to lack of work rate which allows him to be a factor in games if things aren't going his way.

 

Kelz - Just be a little careful with the Saints game due to 2 reasons, their game last week was in hot conditions and interstate and also IMO sides that cop a bake during the week tend to play 'only ok' the next week, it is more the 2-3 weeks after the bake that they 'tend' to get on a roll i.e. Coll over the last week or so after Mick gave his players a good old fashioned rocket. The reason for this could be that during the week sides could spend alot of physical & mental energy due to the critism over the week and 'not' have the normal preparation they would otherwise have.

 

HOH - Crawford wasn't in doubt, he simply wasn't going to play this round and will more than likely miss the following 2-3 games as well.

 

Rod Steel - Very interesting fact is that 'I think' (and not exactly remembering the lines per each game) only Bris, Rich & Port have covered the spread after coming back from playing in Subiaco the week before...that's 3-6 if you count tonights game also, with one game played between Freo & West Coast in Rd 3 which obviously doesn't count, that's why the 3-6 record mentioned above doesn't total 10 as we have played 10 rounds.

 

GL gentelman...and let the God's open up the rain gates directly over the Gabba tomorrow night  

P.S. Going to throw some money on the Cat's at -39.5

Silly Silly Silly...backing sides that are playing interstate, and the weather factor, simply got to watch it before making a bet. Fuck it, cost me my perfect record on the POW's.

 

Going to go with one more play...taking Freo (Pk) as a normal play, and I haven't got time for a write up but one of the main sticking points is that after seeing footage only a couple of days ago I really don't think that Chad Cornes is any where near 100% fit with what looks like a quad compliant, but as this is Kane Cornes 150th game he will more than likely play....and also their training this week was anything but unconventional to say the least! Also add in the fact that Josh Carr is back and I don't think any defender on Port's list will be able to handle Pav...

 

GL, and I hope this round doesn't come back and bite me on the arse as I have stated many times this week that it wasn't a good week to try and pick winners.

 nice pick miracle i dont see why anyone would take port away at subiaco against a near full strength freo squad who is in much need of a win i dont mean to make the 8 but just like melb has done the last couple of weeks to show they have some pride so time for freo to get another win. its either freo or no play in this one.