Hey guys, how's it going. Been awhile since I have been on here, but wanted your thoughts. My book just started doing regulation bets with +/- .5 goals and want to know if you generally like these more then just the money lines.
My thinking is if you do the regulation select the team with the + .5 goals, since a good amount of ties do happen as we all know.
You guys have more experience with this, stuff so wanted to get your feedback.
Thanks in advance
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To remove first post, remove entire topic.
Hey guys, how's it going. Been awhile since I have been on here, but wanted your thoughts. My book just started doing regulation bets with +/- .5 goals and want to know if you generally like these more then just the money lines.
My thinking is if you do the regulation select the team with the + .5 goals, since a good amount of ties do happen as we all know.
You guys have more experience with this, stuff so wanted to get your feedback.
I love the regulation bets. You get better odds then playing full time. Sure your going to get screwed when one of your games goes to ot every now and then but I'll take the better odds over the full time any day. If a game goes to extra time theres no guarantee the favourite will still win the game, its really 50/50 now. Last weekends game between the flames and cannots went to a shootout and luongo gave up 3 goals in the shootout. Even with one of the best goalies in the world in net he failed to make a single save. If you take the fav in regualtion and the game goes to extra time any advantage you had at the beginning of the game is now gone and your basically coin flipping now.
Playing the +0.5 I play this when I think the game will be close but not sure enough that the dog will win. The game just has to get to ot and you win your bet. Usually you have to pay a little bit of juice and you can even get some take back on a big dog. I don't like laying more then 30 cents with this type of bet, if I do then its just better to take the dog straight up and get the plus money.
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I love the regulation bets. You get better odds then playing full time. Sure your going to get screwed when one of your games goes to ot every now and then but I'll take the better odds over the full time any day. If a game goes to extra time theres no guarantee the favourite will still win the game, its really 50/50 now. Last weekends game between the flames and cannots went to a shootout and luongo gave up 3 goals in the shootout. Even with one of the best goalies in the world in net he failed to make a single save. If you take the fav in regualtion and the game goes to extra time any advantage you had at the beginning of the game is now gone and your basically coin flipping now.
Playing the +0.5 I play this when I think the game will be close but not sure enough that the dog will win. The game just has to get to ot and you win your bet. Usually you have to pay a little bit of juice and you can even get some take back on a big dog. I don't like laying more then 30 cents with this type of bet, if I do then its just better to take the dog straight up and get the plus money.
I love the regulation bets. You get better odds then playing full time. Sure your going to get screwed when one of your games goes to ot every now and then but I'll take the better odds over the full time any day. If a game goes to extra time theres no guarantee the favourite will still win the game, its really 50/50 now.
Pittsburgh is 9-1 after regulation off hand. Haven't looked into others but I know some teams struggle in overtime/shootout. Recall the Islanders being decent. Look into it.
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Quote Originally Posted by bet4value:
I love the regulation bets. You get better odds then playing full time. Sure your going to get screwed when one of your games goes to ot every now and then but I'll take the better odds over the full time any day. If a game goes to extra time theres no guarantee the favourite will still win the game, its really 50/50 now.
Pittsburgh is 9-1 after regulation off hand. Haven't looked into others but I know some teams struggle in overtime/shootout. Recall the Islanders being decent. Look into it.
Isles 9-8 in extra time. Isles are usually a dog anyways and aren't a favourite too much and I wouldn't play them as a regulation favourite anyways. +0.5 puck the way to go with the isles.
Pens are usually a big fav. You give good insight into your picks and that is much appreciated. Also quite sharp with your bets but I doubt even you would lay a big price with the pens. Puckline or reg. bets seem to be the way to go with them when there favoured.
And yes not all teams do well with the extra time. Some people feel more confident in playing the ml they have that added security of ot/shootout if they need it. Im more comfortable in taking the favourites in regulation with the better odds.
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@depressed
You make a good point.
Isles 9-8 in extra time. Isles are usually a dog anyways and aren't a favourite too much and I wouldn't play them as a regulation favourite anyways. +0.5 puck the way to go with the isles.
Pens are usually a big fav. You give good insight into your picks and that is much appreciated. Also quite sharp with your bets but I doubt even you would lay a big price with the pens. Puckline or reg. bets seem to be the way to go with them when there favoured.
And yes not all teams do well with the extra time. Some people feel more confident in playing the ml they have that added security of ot/shootout if they need it. Im more comfortable in taking the favourites in regulation with the better odds.
If a game is -140 or more I will play the regulation or the -1 line. You should take a look at -1 lines also. If your book doesn't offer them you can make them yourself
Do not play the +.5 lines, the juice will kill ya.
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Dallas horrible in extra time.
If a game is -140 or more I will play the regulation or the -1 line. You should take a look at -1 lines also. If your book doesn't offer them you can make them yourself
Do not play the +.5 lines, the juice will kill ya.
I think the reg play by itself is better when you are betting a dog. My reasoning is that you are already betting on an "upset" so if that comes true you maximize value because you are only trying to hit on a small percentage of these anyway so a loss because a game goes to OT doesn't hurt that much.
When you bet on favorites if you are just betting a ML or a reg line I would pay the extra juice and take the ML because you really can't risk losing a game that went to OT that you could have won with the ML bet. You need to many wins when laying juice so just a few losses will kill you.
Listen to some of the guys on here about creating your own line, this is probably the best course of action. Essetially you can hedge your reg. bet with a ML bet. So for instance if you were to bet 10 units on a game you have different possible outcomes.
10 ML and your team wins outright say +7u
7 ML and 3 reg line and your team wins say + 8u(because the reg bet reduced your juice)
10 reg and an OT you lose -10u
7 ML and 3 reg line and an OT win you lose 3u but win the ML for say 5 u netting 2u
Very hypothetical numbers but play around with some real games and you'll get the idea
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I think the reg play by itself is better when you are betting a dog. My reasoning is that you are already betting on an "upset" so if that comes true you maximize value because you are only trying to hit on a small percentage of these anyway so a loss because a game goes to OT doesn't hurt that much.
When you bet on favorites if you are just betting a ML or a reg line I would pay the extra juice and take the ML because you really can't risk losing a game that went to OT that you could have won with the ML bet. You need to many wins when laying juice so just a few losses will kill you.
Listen to some of the guys on here about creating your own line, this is probably the best course of action. Essetially you can hedge your reg. bet with a ML bet. So for instance if you were to bet 10 units on a game you have different possible outcomes.
10 ML and your team wins outright say +7u
7 ML and 3 reg line and your team wins say + 8u(because the reg bet reduced your juice)
10 reg and an OT you lose -10u
7 ML and 3 reg line and an OT win you lose 3u but win the ML for say 5 u netting 2u
Very hypothetical numbers but play around with some real games and you'll get the idea
Guys very good discussion and very good tips. I played the Reg line on the Caps last night -.5 and lost cause the game went to OT, but when they were down 4-2 I pretty much put the loss in the bag.
I am thinking a ML and Reg combo maybe the best course of action, but I will keep playing with this and see what I come up with. Any other thoughts or feelings on this, would be happy to discuss further.
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Guys very good discussion and very good tips. I played the Reg line on the Caps last night -.5 and lost cause the game went to OT, but when they were down 4-2 I pretty much put the loss in the bag.
I am thinking a ML and Reg combo maybe the best course of action, but I will keep playing with this and see what I come up with. Any other thoughts or feelings on this, would be happy to discuss further.
Guys very good discussion and very good tips. I played the Reg line on the Caps last night -.5 and lost cause the game went to OT, but when they were down 4-2 I pretty much put the loss in the bag.
I am thinking a ML and Reg combo maybe the best course of action, but I will keep playing with this and see what I come up with. Any other thoughts or feelings on this, would be happy to discuss further.
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Guys very good discussion and very good tips. I played the Reg line on the Caps last night -.5 and lost cause the game went to OT, but when they were down 4-2 I pretty much put the loss in the bag.
I am thinking a ML and Reg combo maybe the best course of action, but I will keep playing with this and see what I come up with. Any other thoughts or feelings on this, would be happy to discuss further.
Love the example of that game for the -1 fave play as I was on that one last night with Caps -1 and instead of losing as reg. line play would have the Caps won it in the SO and I got my wager put back in my pocket....
Yeah my book does not offer the -1, only the reg or PL of -1.5. I understand what you are saying with the -1 though, half points and pucks suck.
Well good luck tonight on your picks, Go Flyers!!
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Quote Originally Posted by Polar_Bear:
Love the example of that game for the -1 fave play as I was on that one last night with Caps -1 and instead of losing as reg. line play would have the Caps won it in the SO and I got my wager put back in my pocket....
Yeah my book does not offer the -1, only the reg or PL of -1.5. I understand what you are saying with the -1 though, half points and pucks suck.
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