Testing an NHL model with 69% accuracy - Week 2

Question

Hello everyone,&#xA;This are the results from the WEEK 1 (03/30 to 04/05)&#xA;S&#xA;Summary&#xA;56 28 50.00%By date&#xA;2026-03-30 5 2 -40.00%2026-03-31 10 6 -60.00%2026-04-01 3 2 -66.67%2026-04-02 14 7 -50.00%2026-04-03 2 1 -50.00%2026-04-04 15 8 -53.33%2026-04-05 7 2 -28.57%By Tier&#xA;Pass- 10- 3 -30.00%Strong -16 -8 -50.00%Elite -20 -11 -55.00%Lean -10 -6 -60.00%By pick&#xA;2026-03-30 CGY @ COL CGY No Lean2026-03-30 PIT @ NYI NYI No Elite2026-03-30 STL @ SJS SJS Yes Strong2026-03-30 TOR @ ANA ANA No Lean2026-03-30 VAN @ VGK VGK Yes Pass2026-03-31 CAR @ CBJ CAR Yes Elite2026-03-31 DAL @ BOS BOS Yes Elite2026-03-31 DET @ PIT DET No Pass2026-03-31 MTL @ TBL TBL No Strong2026-03-31 NJD @ NYR NJD No Elite2026-03-31 NYI @ BUF BUF Yes Elite2026-03-31 OTT @ FLA OTT No Pass2026-03-31 PHI @ WSH WSH Yes Strong2026-03-31 SEA @ EDM EDM Yes Elite2026-03-31 WPG @ CHI WPG Yes Elite2026-04-01 ANA @ SJS SJS Yes Lean2026-04-01 STL @ LAK LAK Yes Strong2026-04-01 VAN @ COL COL No Elite2026-04-02 BOS @ FLA BOS No Elite2026-04-02 BUF @ OTT BUF No Strong2026-04-02 CBJ @ CAR CAR Yes Elite2026-04-02 CGY @ VGK VGK Yes Elite2026-04-02 CHI @ EDM EDM Yes Elite2026-04-02 DET @ PHI DET Yes Pass2026-04-02 MTL @ NYR NYR No Pass2026-04-02 NSH @ LAK LAK No Strong2026-04-02 PIT @ TBL PIT No Pass2026-04-02 TOR @ SJS TOR No Strong2026-04-02 UTA @ SEA UTA Yes Strong2026-04-02 VAN @ MIN MIN Yes Elite2026-04-02 WPG @ DAL WPG No Pass2026-04-02 WSH @ NJD NJD Yes Lean2026-04-03 PHI @ NYI NYI No Pass2026-04-03 STL @ ANA STL Yes Lean2026-04-04 BOS @ TBL BOS No Strong2026-04-04 BUF @ WSH WSH Yes Pass2026-04-04 CGY @ ANA ANA No Elite2026-04-04 CHI @ SEA SEA No Elite2026-04-04 COL @ DAL COL Yes Lean2026-04-04 DET @ NYR DET No Pass2026-04-04 FLA @ PIT PIT Yes Strong2026-04-04 MIN @ OTT OTT No Lean2026-04-04 MTL @ NJD NJD No Strong2026-04-04 NSH @ SJS SJS No Strong2026-04-04 NYI @ CAR CAR Yes Elite2026-04-04 TOR @ LAK LAK Yes Lean2026-04-04 UTA @ VAN UTA Yes Elite2026-04-04 VGK @ EDM VGK Yes Lean2026-04-04 WPG @ CBJ WPG Yes Strong2026-04-05 BOS @ PHI BOS No Strong2026-04-05 CAR @ OTT CAR No Lean2026-04-05 FLA @ PIT PIT Yes Strong2026-04-05 MIN @ DET DET No Elite2026-04-05 NJD @ MTL NJD Yes Strong2026-04-05 STL @ COL COL No Elite2026-04-05 WSH @ NYR WSH No EliteI made some modifications for the model, let&#x27;s see the results for week 2.

TheProphet88 · Accepted Answer

After Week 1, I wasn&#x27;t happy with the model&#x27;s results, so I made some modifications. It currently doesn&#x27;t provide as many "Elite" and "Strong" picks as before, but I expect the accuracy to be much higher this way.&#xA;I performed an audit of the model to ensure there was no data leakage, and the results were as follows:&#xA;Prediction date range: 2025-10-07 to 2026-03-30&#xA;Full-schedule accuracy: 64.40%&#xA;Accuracy by Tier:&#xA;Elite: 84.17% (117/139)&#xA;Strong: 74.07% (120/162)&#xA;Lean: 71.22% (198/278)&#xA;Pass: 54.65% (323/591)&#xA;Ranking system:1 - Elite | 2 - Strong | 3 - Lean | 4 - Pass&#xA;Let&#x2019;s have faith that this works so everyone can make some money for the rest of the season!Today&#x2019;s Picks:&#xA;BOS @ CAR --CAR --PassCBJ @ DET --DET --PassCGY @ DAL --DAL --LeanCOL @ STL --COL --LeanEDM @ UTA --EDM --PassFLA @ MTL --FLA --LeanNSH @ ANA --ANA --PassPHI @ NJD --NJD --LeanSEA @ MIN --MIN --LeanTBL @ OTT --TBL --PassVGK @ VAN --VGK --Strong

TheProphet88 · Answer

Hello everyone,&#xA;This are the results from the WEEK 1 (03/30 to 04/05)&#xA;S&#xA;Summary&#xA;56 28 50.00%By date&#xA;2026-03-30 5 2 -40.00%2026-03-31 10 6 -60.00%2026-04-01 3 2 -66.67%2026-04-02 14 7 -50.00%2026-04-03 2 1 -50.00%2026-04-04 15 8 -53.33%2026-04-05 7 2 -28.57%By Tier&#xA;Pass- 10- 3 -30.00%Strong -16 -8 -50.00%Elite -20 -11 -55.00%Lean -10 -6 -60.00%By pick&#xA;2026-03-30 CGY @ COL CGY No Lean2026-03-30 PIT @ NYI NYI No Elite2026-03-30 STL @ SJS SJS Yes Strong2026-03-30 TOR @ ANA ANA No Lean2026-03-30 VAN @ VGK VGK Yes Pass2026-03-31 CAR @ CBJ CAR Yes Elite2026-03-31 DAL @ BOS BOS Yes Elite2026-03-31 DET @ PIT DET No Pass2026-03-31 MTL @ TBL TBL No Strong2026-03-31 NJD @ NYR NJD No Elite2026-03-31 NYI @ BUF BUF Yes Elite2026-03-31 OTT @ FLA OTT No Pass2026-03-31 PHI @ WSH WSH Yes Strong2026-03-31 SEA @ EDM EDM Yes Elite2026-03-31 WPG @ CHI WPG Yes Elite2026-04-01 ANA @ SJS SJS Yes Lean2026-04-01 STL @ LAK LAK Yes Strong2026-04-01 VAN @ COL COL No Elite2026-04-02 BOS @ FLA BOS No Elite2026-04-02 BUF @ OTT BUF No Strong2026-04-02 CBJ @ CAR CAR Yes Elite2026-04-02 CGY @ VGK VGK Yes Elite2026-04-02 CHI @ EDM EDM Yes Elite2026-04-02 DET @ PHI DET Yes Pass2026-04-02 MTL @ NYR NYR No Pass2026-04-02 NSH @ LAK LAK No Strong2026-04-02 PIT @ TBL PIT No Pass2026-04-02 TOR @ SJS TOR No Strong2026-04-02 UTA @ SEA UTA Yes Strong2026-04-02 VAN @ MIN MIN Yes Elite2026-04-02 WPG @ DAL WPG No Pass2026-04-02 WSH @ NJD NJD Yes Lean2026-04-03 PHI @ NYI NYI No Pass2026-04-03 STL @ ANA STL Yes Lean2026-04-04 BOS @ TBL BOS No Strong2026-04-04 BUF @ WSH WSH Yes Pass2026-04-04 CGY @ ANA ANA No Elite2026-04-04 CHI @ SEA SEA No Elite2026-04-04 COL @ DAL COL Yes Lean2026-04-04 DET @ NYR DET No Pass2026-04-04 FLA @ PIT PIT Yes Strong2026-04-04 MIN @ OTT OTT No Lean2026-04-04 MTL @ NJD NJD No Strong2026-04-04 NSH @ SJS SJS No Strong2026-04-04 NYI @ CAR CAR Yes Elite2026-04-04 TOR @ LAK LAK Yes Lean2026-04-04 UTA @ VAN UTA Yes Elite2026-04-04 VGK @ EDM VGK Yes Lean2026-04-04 WPG @ CBJ WPG Yes Strong2026-04-05 BOS @ PHI BOS No Strong2026-04-05 CAR @ OTT CAR No Lean2026-04-05 FLA @ PIT PIT Yes Strong2026-04-05 MIN @ DET DET No Elite2026-04-05 NJD @ MTL NJD Yes Strong2026-04-05 STL @ COL COL No Elite2026-04-05 WSH @ NYR WSH No EliteI made some modifications for the model, let&#x27;s see the results for week 2.

BristolNole · Answer

Win percentages are good, but the problem is W/L records aren't what's important betting hockey. It's units ($$) W/L that matters.

I noticed for example, your Elite plays are often on very heavy favorites, so a 20-11 record could easily be negative dollars. Without keeping track, I can't know for sure.

But, you should consider incorporating Units won and lost for clarity.

Just my thoughts. Wish you success.

TheProphet88 · Answer

@BristolNole&#xA;Hey! You&#x2019;re right about that; I&#x2019;m definitely including odds and a unit system in the future. I expect to have that ready for next season.

Ramanujan · Answer

You need to post ROI. Everything else is meaningless. Good luck

TheProphet88 · Answer

I am not working with odds or a betting system yet, but it will be added in the future.

Ramanujan · Answer

Until your system includes odds it is literally useless

TheProphet88 · Answer

@Ramanujan&#xA;It can be use as guide for now

Testing an NHL model with 69% accuracy - Week 2

Hot Forum Topics