Lead: Leevi Meriläinen over 22.5 saves
Book: theScore BET, -120
Opponent: Philadelphia
Looking for 23 saves from Meriläinen tonight.
His last three starts finished with 26 saves at Edmonton, 23 at Winnipeg and 24 against Toronto. He faced 29, 29 and 27 shots in those games.
Counting starts only, he has cleared tonight’s line in:
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9 of 11 starts this season
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8 of his last 10
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3 of his last 5
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All 3 of his most recent starts
Over the last ten, he’s averaging 32.0 shots faced and 28.2 saves. Over the last three, those numbers are 28.3 shots faced and 24.3 saves.
The last-five average is lower at 22.4 saves, so the recent sample has some inconsistency. Tonight’s shot volume remains the key.
My PuckOdds model projects 25.74 saves and estimates a 73.2% chance of clearing 22.5. The break-even rate at -120 is roughly 54.5%.
I like the over at this number, with both the projection and eight of his last ten starts supporting the look.
Research from PuckOdds. Leads, not locks.
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