NHL Playoff Betting Tip

First time posting on the NHL forum as I have only posted in college football in the past.  I want to share a betting tip for the playoffs that is very good that majority of people probably are not aware of.  Long post here but it's needed to explain and I recommend you read as this is an excellent betting tip you probably won't find elsewhere.  I hate the books so I like giving info to help bettors.  

It's in live betting only.  During the playoffs, when a game gets to a 3 goal deficit that is when it takes place and you must get to the third period for this.  The key is that in the playoffs teams will always pull the goalie down 3 goals where in the reg season they usually don't.  The live betting algorithms don't account for this so you get a decent line considering the situation.  Teams will usually pull the goalie with at least 5 min left and maybe up to around 7 min left when down 3.  This gives you a lot of time with the empty net.  Now lets look at how to implement.

The key is to look at the alt lines and wait till the total gets to around -400 or better.  Normally I am against giving large odds but this situation is too good to ignore.  When a team is up 3 you will get these odds with about 11 min left give or take a little.  To compare, look at live totals when a team is up 2 - they account for the team pulling the goalie so you won't even get under -300 till under 4 min left.  They don't adjust much for when a team is up 3.  Now, you can't wait till the goalie is pulled as all books pull the totals when this is done and their feed is instant and your live tv feed is behind.  That is why the key is to bet it when the odds get around -400 or better.  You also will get extra time so might get a goal without the goalie pull.  Last night I got -340 on LA-Edm over 7.5 with over 10 min left.  Kings scored before Edm could even pull the goalie that is why you place when you get the odds.  You won't get odds better than -300 most likely.  You could wait till about the 8 min mark and place but you risk a goal being scored while waiting and the odds won't get much better.  Continued on next post 

You will be hard pressed to find a playoff game where a team is up 3 with 10 min left where another goal isn't scored.  I don't recommend doing -3.5 because the goal could be scored by the team that pulls the goalie or they might score before they even pull the goalie like Edm did down 5-2 in game one.  So far this has happened 3 times this playoff and all 3 games had goals before the goalie pull.  Check history on this and you will find goals are almost always scored.  Biggest risk is the team getting behind committing a penalty and reducing the time.  

Another approach is if a game gets to the 3rd period with a 3 goal deficit (like LA in game one) you can also take adv. What you can do here is follow the live feed in the book and bet for a goal to be scored in first 10 min.  What I do is wait till odds get to -150 then bet something like 300 to win 200 (this means waiting till about the 18 min mark cause the pre periods odds an be around -200).  That way if a goal is scored before you get to the -400 odds you make something.  You hope to get to the -400 mark or better than I put up around 5K or more (you might even get a couple min window where if a goal is scored you win both).  I will even consider giving -500 depending on the game for a lesser amount.  Might do like 1K to win 200 then wait another minute or so and if no goal bet again at reduced odds.  Then if it gets to around -350 or better then bet a larger amount.  Scatter the bets.  

 Hope this is helpful. In certain games I will unload, such as matchups like Edm-LA.  Knowing the Oilers will pull the goalie with at least 5 min left and possibly 6 or 7 min left I take that all day long at -340.  One other point, when betting if you like a team -1.5 goals consider betting the final score to be 5-1 or 6-2.  You will get anywhere from plus 3500 to plus 6000.  Notice that in the playoffs you will get those scores a handful of times.  Since you get the goalie pulled in a 3 goal game more games land on a 4 goal deficit than you would think in the playoffs.  In 16 games there has already been 3 games land on 6-2 and one on 5-1.  Worth a 10 dollar bet to net 400 or so.  

Or you wait till the 7 min mark and take 4 goal draw, -3.5 or the winning teams team total. Then you just have to dodge the time after the EN if any (see Vegas game) at a way bigger number (4 goal draws at +100-+200) 

For instance the wild -3.5 potentially or 4 goal draw right now, I just span some. Not saying it wins but rather have that at +150 vs just the game total over at -350ish. Wait for 5-6 mins or so and they're the likelier team to score 

@rlovsin17

 I just like to play the over cause either team can score.  Both late games did it.  I wasn't able to get down to -400 with St. Louis but played a score in first 10 min of 3rd and won.  If you wait too long you risk a score.  In 5 games now with this scenario all 5 games had a score before getting to the goalie being pulled.  That is why I do it as soon as it gets near -400.  Then maybe bet some more if it does get toward -300.  You will get at least 11 minutes and sometimes around 13 minutes which means you get 5-7 min before they will pull the goalie.  Teams down 3 become more aggressive which can lead to a goal before the goalie gets pulled.  

@CFBLMONSTER

 I Feel ya, I'd rather wait till the 7-5 min mark and take the minus, the 4gd or the team total, pays way better with less potential risk. one no next goal and you wipe out 4 games of profit with your bet, I only need to hit at 40-55% depending on the wager (tt paying the lowest) to break even. 

I hope someone out there bet this total at 5.5 after Tampa made it 4-1.  There was just under 6 min left and no doubt florida would pull the goalie.  I got -122 on the over after the goal.  Florida pulls goalie with about 5:30 left.  Those odds are unreal.  You can bet this 3 goal diff down to the 4 min mark but remember that they pull the totals once goalie is pulled.  Take adv of the algorithm not correcting for this.  You will never get a better bet than -122 with a goalie pulled with 5:30 left.  

-2.5 @ 1.95 and -3.5 @ 3.25 both hit 

so your system is for a -300 play? 

you’re better off just jamming the spread on the EN for larger odds. 

I was thinking about your original post when Tampa was up 4 to 1 and Florida pulled their goalie. Unfortunately I didn't bet it. Good call.

@vaas187

 Once the net is empty they pull the lines.  You have to understand how the lines are done and when teams typically pull the goalie.  If the game is on 3 goals I take it as soon as odds get around -400 (i get something on it then wait another min or so and bet more till 8 min mark).  This will give you at least 11 minutes usually which results in probably 4-5 min before the net is empty.  The line continues to drop till the net is empty but usually you won't get much better than -300 before the 8 min mark.  After 8 min if you wait then you run the risk the goalie is pulled and lines are pulled.  Keep in mind your TV feed is behind so when you actually see the goalie pulled the line has already been pulled.  If it is a 2 goal game and the team leading scores and there is at least 5 min left you will get great odds like today and you can bet the over.  Once the game gets under 3 min if the team winning scores to go up 3 you might not get the goalie pulled again.  The key to the bet is knowing you will get at least 5 min with empty net but when you place with 11 min left you also get the time to that point for a score which has happened several times this playoff.  Sometimes the team trailing by 3 will score so that is why I don't like -3.5 but its not a bad play if odds scare you. There is almost always a goal in these scenarios - nothing is 100% but this is easily in the 90 plus percent range.  If you have a team with some skill that is up 3 is almost certain there will be a goal.  The biggest risk is a dumb penalty buy the team losing - such as a 5 min major.  That will greatly hurt it so that is why nothing 100%.   

@Ufo2112

 That was the best one of the playoff - probably won't get better as Tampa scored at almost the perfect time and odds are greatly reduced cause they don't account for the pulled goalie.  If the score was 3-1 the odds would be close to -400 at that same point - pretty amazing diff considering if it was 3-1 florida probaby waits till 3:30 left to pull goalie where in this scenario down 3 you know they will pull goalie as soon as they get possession in Tampa end.  Once tampa iced it I knew they would pull the goalie but by the time you see it the line is pulled cause the books have an instant feed.  That is why I immediately bet it once the line is posted cause they were pulling the goalie quick so not a lot of time so you have to follow the live feed in the book.  That is why in these games if a team is up 2 always follow till the 5 min mark and hope the team winning scores.  

You still need the goal though at -400 or whatever. One game ends in no goal you wipe 4 winners worth of profit. If you take the minus which typically hits just as often (winning team getting the EN) you only need to hit 45-55% to stay afloat. The -400 sounds like a lock in theory but the book still has the +ev with the NNG risk paired to any hockey wager. The spread based on an EN being scored always holds more +ev in my opinion.

@rlovsin17

 Well going back 3 years this way of betting has gone 43-5.  This is getting to the 12 min mark of the 3rd with a 3 goal diff and stopping at under 5:30 left.  All 5 losses lost because of penalties.  That is the risk.  It didn't lose last year and is 4-0 this year.  This doesn't include games that hit the 3 goal mark before the 12 min mark of the 3rd and there are a few games you could do it more than once.  Bottom line, if a game hits the 3 goal difference at any point before the 6 minute mark you are looking at 90% win prob.  Just hope for no penalty as sometimes in these games the losing team commits them and they start fighting and once that happens it can kill it.  That is why i can give -400 - and bet more if I get toward -300.  Not sure what record is in those games if you gave -3.5 - you can look if you want and see.  That most likely has a good record to.  Keep an eye on this Avs game - I'm hoping they are winning by 3 in the 3rd as it should be a good one.  

Are you saying to take the team up by 3 or the total over?

@Base_Knocks

 The total.  You are going for a goal.  I will lay out how I play this on Colorado.  Right now over 3.5 is -1800 in FD and goal in first 10 min of 3rd is -210.  I will wait and hope for no goal for a couple min then bet for a goal in first 10 min once line gets around -150 (i don't like -210).  I will do 300 to win 200.  If a goal is scored quickly I will wait and hope whoever scores the other team scores the next goal.  Assuming no goal I play the first 10 min score at -150.  If no goal is scored then I monitor the live total and wait till it gets around -400 - should be around the 11 min mark for a total over 3.5.  I will bet 1200 to win 300.  If no goal is scored after 10  min I will then bet to win another 500 no matter the line which should be less than -400.  I will wait another 2 min and if no goal bet I will risk another 3K.  Even if no goal is scored before the 8 min mark you have the fact Dallas will pull the goalie to fall back on and should get at least 5 min of empty net.  Then I hope Dallas doesn't commit any penalties after the 6 min  mark.  That is how I play.  So as long as there isn't a goal immediately in the 3rd I will at least win a couple hundred if 1 goal is scored in the period.  Lets say Dallas scores 5 min in - I win 200 - if Col then scores a few min later its back to 3 goals then if under -400 i bet again on over 5.5.  

@CFBLMONSTER

 Thank you!

@Base_Knocks

 no problem.  So this game is a good example why i do this the way i do.  If you wait till odds get to -300 or better there might be a goal before then.  I did not get to a max bet on this game as I only won about 500 as I had to give -400 and lost the first 10 min bet.  Was going to bet a couple thousand in about 30 more seconds.  Sometimes that is frustrating cause a goal is scored quickly.  The way this game was going Col is applying so much pressure there was a good chance a goal was scored before the 8 min mark.  

@CFBLMONSTER

 Now it makes sense. I put a little down at ov 3.5 and -400 just under 11 minutes. With that quick 4th goal Dallas never pulled the goalie.

@Base_Knocks

 Good - I'm glad you won some money.  The -3.5 was what rlovsin17 was bringing up.  This Col game was a good one to do it.  Obviously the odds are way better.  I haven't pulled the data on that so maybe I will.  For sure you would lose more bets but the money might be better since you typically can get near even odds on the bet.  You do get a decent amount of games that end up at a 4 goal or more difference in the playoffs.  I like just needing the goal as I've seen several times the team losing score.  The win % is really high on these bets as I laid out.  If the losing team doesn't commit a penalty then these bets prob win easily 95% of the time.  Every now and then you get a penalty though.  If that happens and the clock gets toward 2 min left when penalty is over the losing team prob won't pull the goalie unless its an elimination game so that is the main risk.  

@CFBLMONSTER

 Thanks for the NHL total tip man. It makes perfect sense and im looking forward to using it soon. i already have a few little live bet algorithm targets that i use for some different sports - and i will definitely put this one in my arsenal- good info...  thanks again and good luck !

The potential is there in this Blues game…??

@Base_Knocks

 It was.  That is why I play the first ten min score.  I at least win 200.  The line was -140 before period started.  I want to get something out of the situation and worst scenario is a quick goal like the Blues did.  That game would have gotten under -400 quicker than the Col game since the pre game total was 5.5 under -140.  That factors in so the total probably gets under -400 with 13 min left.  The best scenarios will be in elimination games.  The losing team is less likely to commit a dumb penalty since their season is on the line.