Posted:
#1
I hit up Montreal real good in their Game 7 win in Washington. I see a lot of people comparing this game to that one for Montreal. I don't think they compare nearly as closely as many are saying.
First of all Washington was up 3-1 in that series and then blew two games including one at home. In Game 7 they were at home as big favs after blowing two games, a huge advantage already for the underdog as the favorite in these situations are absolutely expected to win and all the pressure is on them after blowing a 3-1 lead. The home favs in those spots usually play so tight and scared that there is sawdust on the ice from them squeezing their sticks so tight.
And secondly, Washington IMO was a soft, soft team. Not necessarily physically, but mentally. The Washington Capitals were a mentally fragile team. They were not able to face adversity, refocus and get it done. They also hadn't done it before so why in a huge game in which mental focus would determine the winner, would they suddenly "man up"?
Those factors led me to hit Montreal pretty good. Those factors IMO do NOT apply to the Pittsburgh Penguins.
For starters, Pittsburgh has not blown a 3-1 lead. Yes, they lost Game 6 but they were only up 3-2 and that game was on the road where Montreal was supposed to defend home ice. I do not believe they are feeling the heat like Washington.
Secondly, and most importantly, the Pittsburgh Penguins are one fucking tough team mentally. In situations where they need to "man up", regroup and focus after a bad performance or they need to get it done, boy do they man up. We all know they won Game 7 of the Stanley Cup on the road but consider the following:
In the last 2+ years in the playoffs, this group of Penguins have had 5 instances where after winning 3 games in a series and having a chance to put the other team away, they lost the next game (like they did in Game 6 in Montreal, leading the series 3-2 they lost). But instead of getting shaky, choking, or letting the other team right back in the series or to win the series they've instead shown a great ability to refocus and get it done. In the next game after those losses the Penguins are a perfect 5-0 SU, finishing off every series in that game. In situations where many teams would have lost focus, the Penguins did not, they simply regrouped went out and got it done.
Another great stat that shows how mentally tough and dedicated these guys are IMO is this one: 22 times this season the Penguins lost SU as a favorite and were favored in their next game. In other words, 22 times they lost a game they were supposed to win and then played another game they were supposed to win immediately thereafter. Now in the course of the long regular season it may be easy for them to take their foot off the gas for a couple games, but not these guys. Instead of tanking a couple of more games they said to themselves that those losses against inferior teams were unacceptable and instead of letting it happen again they regrouped, refocused and went 18-4 SU in those 22 games as a fav after losing SU as a fav, including 4-0 in this years playoffs and 2-0 in this very series. Pittsburgh lost Game 6 as a favorite and are now favored tonight so this situation is in play.
15 times this season the Penguins outshot an opponent by 5 shots or more and still lost the game. Instead of taking the old "ahhh a hot goalie beat us" or "we just gotta keep firing and they'll eventually go in" roads, these guys said those excuses were not acceptable. So instead they refocused, played differently, generated better chances, and more importantly finished, careful to avoid the mistakes that cost them the previous game. In the 15 games after outshooting an opponent by at least 5 shots and still losing SU, these Penguins went 14-1 SU including 3-0 in this years playoffs and 2-0 in this very series. Pittsburgh outshot montreal by 12 in Game 6 and lost SU so this situation is in play tonight.
How about one Marc-Andre Fleury? There still seems to be some sentiment out there that this guy is a bit of a choker or a goof or simply isn't an elite goaile. While I may agree he can get a little complacent when things are going well, this guy is a big game netminder. In the biggest games last season and this year he has played his best hockey. I'm sure we all remember his unbelievable play in Game 7's last year against Washington and Detroit. He's also very good at the Igloo off a bad game, refocusing, and being mentally prepared off a bad games just like the rest of his team. In home games this year after giving up 4 goals or more the previous game Fleury went 5-2 with a 2.00 GAA and .931 SV%. Pretty damn good. Fleury gave up 4 goals in Game 6.
I know I'm not going out on any kind of limb here taking the defending champs and a -225 home favorite to win Game 7 but I really feel that the intangibles these guys show after bad games and how they regroup and refocus aren't just markers of a good team, they are markers of a GREAT team and I do not see a great team that is so mentally tough choking and losing Game 7 on home ice.
Having said that and certainly making a strong case for Pittsburgh I will not lay the -1.5. I think laying the -1.5 is for spots where you expect the fav to come out strong and the dog to come out flat, and this is not one of those spots. I debated laying the -225 but instead went with:
Pittsburgh -0.5 (reg) -135
GL
First of all Washington was up 3-1 in that series and then blew two games including one at home. In Game 7 they were at home as big favs after blowing two games, a huge advantage already for the underdog as the favorite in these situations are absolutely expected to win and all the pressure is on them after blowing a 3-1 lead. The home favs in those spots usually play so tight and scared that there is sawdust on the ice from them squeezing their sticks so tight.
And secondly, Washington IMO was a soft, soft team. Not necessarily physically, but mentally. The Washington Capitals were a mentally fragile team. They were not able to face adversity, refocus and get it done. They also hadn't done it before so why in a huge game in which mental focus would determine the winner, would they suddenly "man up"?
Those factors led me to hit Montreal pretty good. Those factors IMO do NOT apply to the Pittsburgh Penguins.
For starters, Pittsburgh has not blown a 3-1 lead. Yes, they lost Game 6 but they were only up 3-2 and that game was on the road where Montreal was supposed to defend home ice. I do not believe they are feeling the heat like Washington.
Secondly, and most importantly, the Pittsburgh Penguins are one fucking tough team mentally. In situations where they need to "man up", regroup and focus after a bad performance or they need to get it done, boy do they man up. We all know they won Game 7 of the Stanley Cup on the road but consider the following:
In the last 2+ years in the playoffs, this group of Penguins have had 5 instances where after winning 3 games in a series and having a chance to put the other team away, they lost the next game (like they did in Game 6 in Montreal, leading the series 3-2 they lost). But instead of getting shaky, choking, or letting the other team right back in the series or to win the series they've instead shown a great ability to refocus and get it done. In the next game after those losses the Penguins are a perfect 5-0 SU, finishing off every series in that game. In situations where many teams would have lost focus, the Penguins did not, they simply regrouped went out and got it done.
Another great stat that shows how mentally tough and dedicated these guys are IMO is this one: 22 times this season the Penguins lost SU as a favorite and were favored in their next game. In other words, 22 times they lost a game they were supposed to win and then played another game they were supposed to win immediately thereafter. Now in the course of the long regular season it may be easy for them to take their foot off the gas for a couple games, but not these guys. Instead of tanking a couple of more games they said to themselves that those losses against inferior teams were unacceptable and instead of letting it happen again they regrouped, refocused and went 18-4 SU in those 22 games as a fav after losing SU as a fav, including 4-0 in this years playoffs and 2-0 in this very series. Pittsburgh lost Game 6 as a favorite and are now favored tonight so this situation is in play.
15 times this season the Penguins outshot an opponent by 5 shots or more and still lost the game. Instead of taking the old "ahhh a hot goalie beat us" or "we just gotta keep firing and they'll eventually go in" roads, these guys said those excuses were not acceptable. So instead they refocused, played differently, generated better chances, and more importantly finished, careful to avoid the mistakes that cost them the previous game. In the 15 games after outshooting an opponent by at least 5 shots and still losing SU, these Penguins went 14-1 SU including 3-0 in this years playoffs and 2-0 in this very series. Pittsburgh outshot montreal by 12 in Game 6 and lost SU so this situation is in play tonight.
How about one Marc-Andre Fleury? There still seems to be some sentiment out there that this guy is a bit of a choker or a goof or simply isn't an elite goaile. While I may agree he can get a little complacent when things are going well, this guy is a big game netminder. In the biggest games last season and this year he has played his best hockey. I'm sure we all remember his unbelievable play in Game 7's last year against Washington and Detroit. He's also very good at the Igloo off a bad game, refocusing, and being mentally prepared off a bad games just like the rest of his team. In home games this year after giving up 4 goals or more the previous game Fleury went 5-2 with a 2.00 GAA and .931 SV%. Pretty damn good. Fleury gave up 4 goals in Game 6.
I know I'm not going out on any kind of limb here taking the defending champs and a -225 home favorite to win Game 7 but I really feel that the intangibles these guys show after bad games and how they regroup and refocus aren't just markers of a good team, they are markers of a GREAT team and I do not see a great team that is so mentally tough choking and losing Game 7 on home ice.
Having said that and certainly making a strong case for Pittsburgh I will not lay the -1.5. I think laying the -1.5 is for spots where you expect the fav to come out strong and the dog to come out flat, and this is not one of those spots. I debated laying the -225 but instead went with:
Pittsburgh -0.5 (reg) -135
GL
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