Lord Stanley's Cup Thread - Round 1 Thoughts

Ah, mid-April, flowers are blooming, birds are singing, and pucks are dropping and Series Games 1&2 are Splitting.  Love this time of year.  Hockey playoffs is the best.

In addition to Lipp's time-tested System, here's another bit of data/system that has brought success:  Play all Overs in first 4 games of each Round 1 Matchup.  Here's the data:

2024:

Over 5.5  18-14

Over 4.5  26-6 

2023:

Over 5.5  21-11

Over 4.5  27-5

2022:

Over 5.5  24-8

Over 4.5  27-5

Over 5.5 Round 1 1st 4 games over 3 year span is a whopping 63-33...   

Over 4.5 Round 1 1st 4 Games over 3 year span is a Whopper-whopping 80-16  

To put those numbers into odds perspective, 63-33 is profitable all the way to -190 (meaning if you got odds at -190 or better on all 96 games and went 63-33, you would still show profit).  80-16, that min odds moves to -500. 

Pretty sure your book will have better odds.  Good Luck.  

DYK 

Pretty sure I understand, bet overs in first 4 games of every series! Thanks 

@Fuse 

@haymo  yep - see below

Game 1's buck trend a bit:

2024:

4-4  Over 5.5

4-3-1 Over 6

2023:

4-4  Over 5.5

2-4-2  Over 6

2022:

5-3  Over 5.5

3-3-2  Over 6

So Game 1's not as good as Game 2-4.  But the trend performs very well Games 2,3,4. 

@dyamarik

 Great info bud!  I knew the numbers were high starting off each series, those numbers are crazy high. I still haven't made up my mind to bet the 5.5 straight up or go the 4.5 parlay route? I see Blues/Jets set at 5 now. 

Hope they all hit go get it!!!

Yessir I like a few game 1 unders glad it bucks the trend a bit

Fla/Tb and stl/wpg should be lower scoring. Maybe edm/Lak if goalies play well. 

4th year in a row la/edm meet up in round 1. Edm won previous 3 series and ended la season

@thehuntman  juice is a bit high, but 5 is a great number.  I was thinking some early series 4.5 parlays.

@Kazual12  BOL this playoff Kaz 

@dubz4dummyz  yeah, agree the numbers trend towards a few Unders next couple days, but this is a sorta agnostic system - just bet them all and let God figure it out...  Wait what? 

Will Post plays in my daily thread on Overs, but gonna give this a whirl.

Liking your overs, especially in Dallas tonight. Real curious to see how Helley will respond today. 

And yes, Mr. Charlie Daniels sang about the Devil coming down to Georgia....

How was golf yesterday? My game is so struggling the last several months. Might have to do with being old and lumbar pain increasing. 

Good Luck in the playoffs!!!

@GASportsDoc

 Only played 9 - shot 45 with 3 Triple Bogies, so basically a roller coaster.  Did have a nice birdie on 6th hole, and made Par on the #1 handicap 440 yard Par 4. Next weekend we play 36, and possibly another 18 if everyone behaves themselves at night.  Hear ya on the Lumbar - got 2 herniated discs that I just deal with semi-constant pain and Ibuprofen most everyday, but considering what hell others are going thru with Cancer and such, I'll take the achy back.

@Gainsford

 Thx G

Gonna post the lines and best odds at 4 books (DK, FD, PN, MT) here so easier to find this data later

STL WPG :

Over 4.5  -170  MT

Over 5  -118  MT

Over 5.5  +130 DK

Over 6  +185  MT

Over 6.5  +225  MT

COL DAL:

Over 4.5  -313  MT

Over 5  -238  MT

Over 5.5  -147  MT

Over 6  -110  MT

Over 6.5  +123  MT

1-0-1 so far    +1.3 units

Today's Odds:

Devils/Canes:

Over 4.5  -196  MT

Over 5  -139  MT

Over 5.5  +114  DK

Over 6  +154  FD

Over 6.5  +193  MT

Sens/Loafs:

Over 4.5  -238  MT

Over 5  -173  MT

Over 5.5  -108  DK

Over 6  +127  MT

Over 6.5  +162  MT

Mild/Vegas:

Over 4.5  -233  MT

Over 5  -167  MT

Over 5.5  -104  FD

Over 6  +131  MT

Over 6.5  +168  MT

Good luck on today's plays d    

Hmmmmm... what are we up to now, 4-1 to overs... does it slow down tonight. 

@GASportsDoc 

4-1 if willing to drink the -147 juice on Dallas at 5.5 Game 1.  I took 6 to lower it to -110, and called it a push, so tracking 3-1-1.  Either way, it's working so far, but long way to go.

Salt Mines today, but I'll be playing all 4 Overs.  Dallas might be at 6 again, but that is the least of our worries, as Oil/Kings looks to be the most underish of all 4. 

No time for summary.  Here's what I played for the record:

Habs Game Over 6  -110 

Blues Game Over 5.5  +120 

Avs Game Over 6  -120  

Oil Game Over 5.5  -104 

2-2 last night  -0.1 units

5-3-1 so far  +2.2 units

Only 1 more Series 1 Game 1's left to go.  Gonna up my bet amounts for Game's 2 thru 4.

Missed Devils - looking for Live play action

Ottowa Toronto Over 6  even 1unit

Mild Vegas Over 5.5  -110  1unit

Cats Bolts Over 5.5 -110  1/2u  Over 6  +120  1/4u

Devils Canes Over 5.5  +105  9min left 1P Live bet

2-2 again  net zero on 1 unit bet each game

7-5-1  +2.2 units so far 

Todays Lines

Habs Craps Over 5.5  -120

Stars Avs Over 6 -135

Oil Kings Over 6 even

1-2  last night   -1.55 units

8-7-1  +0.65 units

Today's Lines:

Bolts Cats Over 5.5   -115

Sens Loafs Over 5.5  -118

Mild Vegas Over 5.5  -115

Jets Blues Over 5  -130

Golf weekend got busy with debauchery.  System still producing. 

4/25 2-1 +1.0 units

Habs Over -120

Canes Over 5.5 +110

kings Over 6  -110

4/26  3-1  +1.90 units

Bolts OVer 5.5 -110

Vegas Over 5.5 -120

Loafs Over 5.5 -115

Stars Over 6 -110

13-9-1  +3.55 units  thru Saturday

4/27  4-0  +4.45  

17-9-1  +8.00 units thru Sunday  

Jets Over 5.5 +125

Canes Over 5.5 +120

Habs Over 6 -110

Kings Over 6  -120

System is winding down in terms of # of games, but again, already turned a profit with 1 game left.  Gotta go back and see what games I missed, as 8 times 4 = 32 not 28, but even if all 4 games are all losers (plus Cats/Bolts game 4 tonight) the system would still have made money at 17-14-1.

Nice job yesterday!

@Gainsford   it seems to be fairly consistent.

Found it!  I missed 4/24 results:

Bolts Cats Over 5.5   -115

Sens Loafs Over 5.5  -118

Mild Vegas Over 5.5  -115

Jets Blues Over 5  -130

net loss of 0.33 units on the va-jay-jay juice...

19-11-1  +7.67 units thru Sunday 

Tonight's line: Bolts Cats Over 5.5 -105

Worst Case 19-12-1 with a 6.62 unit net profit - gonna look at Round 2 for any similarities 

@dyamarik

 Really appreciate letting us know about this a couple of weeks back.....

Worked out really well - again!