IIHF World Hockey Championships

May 19

The big day is tomorrow with 6 games on the slate.  From a position standpoint the biggest game today is between France and Slovenia.  Winner stays up and the loser gets relegated.  France is hosting in 2028.  If they get relegated they won't be competing at the 2026 World Championships and there is no guarantee that they would immediately get promoted.  There could be a scenario where they are still in Division 1A in 2027 with them hosting in 2028.  Not sure how the IIHF would handle that.  

France Reg -1 +100 (0.5u to win 0.5u)

Only half unit as I've seen these winner take all games go to OT in the past.  I don't want to lay -235 on France with OT included although I think they win the game regardless just hoping that its in regulation.

The other early game is tough. I lean Czechia because even a German 3 point win won't clinch a spot for Germany.  It will still come down to the game against Denmark regardless of outcome of the Czechia game.  I believe H2H is the first tie break so if Denmark wins tomorrow they are through.  So how bad does Germany want to win today's game? Czechia regulation -1.5 is -117.  That price seems low to me.  Maybe this ends up being a 1 goal game?  Not sure so I'll pass.

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@ELDubarino

 Enjoying your takes. Good info on the France-Slovenia matchup.

May 19

France Reg -1 +100 (0.5u to win 0.5u) 

Both promoted teams stayed up this tournament.  France and Kazakhstan are relegated.  First time for France since 2007 or 2008 I believe

The USA / Czechia game is intriguing.  First is still in reach for Czechia and the USA can get 2nd with a win but not first.  2nd in this group might mean Canada in the next round though if Finland and Sweden both win today in regulation.  My gut wants to take USA ML but Czechia are the defending champions and will want first place to play Austria.  Are they good enough to beat the USA today? I don't know.  I'm passing.

As mentioned a win for Finland in regulation means 2nd as long as Sweden wins at home against Canada which I think is possible.  Finland played a tough game yesterday and have only played predominantly one goal games but Slovakia is not very good this tournament.  

I think this is the game were Finland finally puts an opponent away

Finland -2 Regulation -109 (1.09 to win 1u)

Tight game between USA / Czechia U5.5 -114 (1.14u to win 1u)

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@ELDubarino

I think these are the Scenarios, might be wrong though...

CAN v SWE - CAN needs to win in Regulation and win by either a 4-0 or a 5-1 score to take the Group. Though they are lowly favored at -145, Sweden is the host, and they have the Defense while Canada has the Offense. BUT, we saw what CAN did vs FIN yesterday, can see CAN having b2b bad performances, for SWE to steal the game/Group.

FIN v SVK - SVK have nothing to play for, FIN are set in their spot for 3rd, BUT, legit do have to win to avoid any sort of TB for 4th in the Group

USA v CZE - USA have to win to get second, the only way they can do this is by giving CZE their first Regulation Loss, and are trailing in GF by four and GA by three. Legit, they need to shut out CZE, and I can't see that occurring, as they are set for either a 2nd or, most likely, a 3rd place finish in the Group

DEN v GER - SO, I THINK THIS IS THE ONE TO ATTACK. Both are 3-0-0-3 (W-OTW-OTL-L), DEN are 23:23 and GER are 19:20 for GF : GA. However, Denmark is the Host City team here, and they are set for 4th, IF THEY WIN. I think they do, that could be a nice game to get. Germany is -165 faves BTW, I want to take a stab at DEN +135 ML

Either way, I think today is an Under Day

LET ME KNOW WHAT I GOT WRONG

@bevoaustintx

I believe the first tie break is H2H.  That's why Finland can still grab 2nd if they win in regulation and Sweden wins in regulation.  Canada and Finland would both be tied at 16 points with Finland winning the H2H.  That puts Canada in 3rd.  

On paper Canada should win but the European teams really get up for Canada when they are at home.  Canada will be going with Binnington the rest of the way I believe so thats probably why I'll stay away but you could get Sweden at plus money ot included.

Your right the big game is Denmark and Germany.  This is simply a winner take all.  I love getting Denmark at that price but I've watched this team and they are not as good as previous Danes teams and have looked inconsistent.  Germans based on the eye test are the better team.  I'm still undecided on this game.  Let's see how the morning games playout.  

@ELDubarino

Yeah, as you can see in my posts, I am def on DEN ML and I think SWE at that price is worth a stab also

Finland -2 Regulation -109 (1.09 to win 1u) 

USA / Czechia U5.5 -114 (1.14u to win 1u) 

Denmark ML (ot included) +131 (1u to win 1.31u)

Sweden Reg PK +117 (1u to win 1.17u)

Finland -2 Regulation -109 (1.09 to win 1u) 

USA / Czechia U5.5 -114 (1.14u to win 1u) 

Denmark ML (ot included) +131 (1u to win 1.31u) 

Sweden Reg PK +117 (1u to win 1.17u) 

Onward and upward.  Needed the SO win by Denmark to salvage something lol

GOT THE DENMARK DUB

I DID ALSO DO SOME LIVE BETS THAT I DIDN'T HAVE TIME TO POST, SO THE DAY WASN'T TOO AWFUL

May 22 - Quarter Finals

Some thoughts

If you want to ML parlay all the faves today it pays +134 at Pinnacle.  I just don't see all the faves winning today.  Canada will beat Denmark, Switzerland will beat Austria although that might be closer than people think.  So that leaves us the two shortest faves USA at -213 and Sweden at -251.  Finland plays this very boring defensive hockey but it works however they can't play catchup in my opinion so if USA were to get up 2 nil that might be enough for the win.  Tough to read Sweden but I don't see them losing two in a row at home.  This is a revenge spot for Sweden who was bounced by the Czechs last year when the tournament was in Prague and the score was lopsided 7 to 3.

So far the plays I like right now is 

Austria 1P +0.5 +117 (1u to win 1.17u)

Austria Reg +2.5 reg +122 (1u to win 1.22u)

Unlike Denmark Austria is not just happy to be in the QFs.  This team has hung with big boys.  They've played Sweden, Finland and Canada in round robin.  Should of beaten Sweden actually.  They are definitely more battle tested than Switzerland imo.

The other play I like is Finland (ot included) ML +174 (1u to win 1.74u)

This will probably be the most hostile crowd the Americans will play in front of.  Finns packed it in for the Canada game and they were loud.  Felt like a road game for Canada.  The Americans are quick and that is there strongest asset but I feel like inexperience and lack of discipline could be the USA issue.  Loud crowd and a couple BS calls might be enough to rattle them.  

Love me some morning hockey 

@ELDubarino

 I don't see all the faves winning at all either, but, it's worth it I think with the +152 i can get, then hedging with your plays of course and some of my detailed plays 

I do also think USA having played Finland just two games prior helps, but yes, FIN are very boring and it could work for sure again

@bevoaustintx

 Just bet USA live down 2 to 1. Got it at +293. Probably higher now.

Profit locked in for this game.

Austria 1P +0.5 +117 (1u to win 1.17u) 

Austria Reg +2.5 reg +122 (1u to win 1.22u) 

Finland (ot included) ML +174 (1u to win 1.74u) 

USA Live down 2 to 1 +293 Reg (1u to win 2.93u) 

So that Money Line Parlay is still alive.  You assume Canada beats Denmark so the only game that could mess it up now is the Sweden / Czechia game.

Hard to see Sweden losing B2B games at home and not getting revenge against Czechia from last year.

Sweden -1 Reg -114 (1.14u to win 1u)

Canada -3.5 Reg -105 (1.05u to win 1u) It might take a while to get there but this should be 5 to 1 or 6 to 1 or even 5 to 0

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You can get Denmark Live at +451 ot included or +763 in regulation

Their goalie is solid so far stopped all 30 shots no score after 2

QFs

Sweden -1 Reg -114 (1.14u to win 1u) 

Canada -3.5 Reg -105 (1.05u to win 1u) 

On to the SFs

I expected the Americans to be the underdogs however I didn't think they would be as high as they are.  I've watched this whole tournament and they did have two moments were they let bad teams back into games but since the 3rd period of the Germany game they've pretty much being firing on all cylinders.  The only thing I can think of is Sweden is the home country and this will be a proper road game. Also the Americans have lost 11 straight Semi Final games.  The first makes sense but the latter doesn't because none of the USA players played on those teams, maybe a couple but regardless its just one of those weird stats imo However maybe the betting market thinks it does matter? Anyways I like

USA (ot included) +183 (1u to win 1.83u)

USA ML 1P +150 (1u to win 1.5u)

USA 1P -0.5 +267 (1u to win 2.67u)

I don't see a let down spot either.  This team has some swag.  They will need to be discipline and don't get caught taking the extra penalty or getting caught up with the crowd noise.  I'm not really a totals player but this should be up and down O5.5 Reg -126 seems ok. Not playing it though

Switzerland Reg -2.5 +102 (1u to win 1.02u)

If this was in Denmark I would probably lean Danes on the puck line but to me this is the classic let down spot.  I see maybe 5 to 1 for Switzerland.  That being said I was definitely wrong with Canada against Denmark. Maybe they will channel similar energy that helped the Soccer team win the Euros in 1992?

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@ELDubarino

 Great info.....And I greatly appreciate your take on this tourney.

@BristolNole

Puck drop in less than an hour.

Updated lines at Pinny

USA ML (ot included) now +178

USA 1P -0.5 +257

USA 1P ML +141

They've fallen a bit but I still like them

Surprised this is the early game today.

@ELDubarino

I'm riding the this talented American team to win it all. 

BOL 

@CanadaCup

USA (ot included) +183 (1u to win 1.83u) Pending

USA ML 1P +150 (1u to win 1.5u) 

USA 1P -0.5 +267 (1u to win 2.67u) 

They also hit a post and Gauthier missed a wide open net.  Could have been worse.

USA -1.5 live in regulation is only -107 and their already up 2 nil.  I'm not playing it but that is good value to me.

@ELDubarino

Great call my friend 

Americans are too young, fast, and skilled for the lackluster Swedes. 

Nylander is a two time loser! Should of stayed in hogtown! 

I have never watched a hockey game in my life - and Hockey isn’t really a big deal here but I am a Dane - is there any chance at all we could win this or are the remaining teams too good ? (Because if there is a chance I might watch it - the ishockey community over here went pretty ecstatic when we beat the Canadians at least)

@Calde13

Much like the game against Canada Dichow will have to stand on his head.

I'm on the Swiss -2.5 but this could be a closer game than I originally anticipated

Maybe Denmark rides this momentum like when they won the Euros back in 1992 

USA (ot included) +183 (1u to win 1.83u) 

Switzerland Reg -2.5 +102 (1u to win 1.02u) 

Right now I want to see the line and reaction to the line before making a play on the gold medal game.  I lean USA however Switzerland did beat this guys in the round robin so usually the reaction is to go with the team with the revenge angle.  I'd rather not see USA a hefty favourite.  This will be an NHL type game played on European Ice Surface.  Both teams have been knocking on the door for years. Switzerland was in the final last year so experience could play a factor.  Let's see what the line is and go from there.

For the Bronze I like Sweden but what are we going to get on the puck line?  Probably -3.5? Maybe -2.5?  Denmark has reverted to the team that was on the brink of elimnation before beating Germany in a Shoot Out.  I don't see a tight game here and there is a chance that Sweden will not run up the score if given the opportunity.  Again will wait for the lines.

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