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How do you handicap NHL?

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Veteran
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Posts: 1150
Posted: #1

Looking for advice, tips, systems, methods, on how you guys handicap an NHL game?

What stats do you guys use?  What are the top ones to look at?

Do you calculate your own line using stats and see if their is value against the current line?

Just would like to know how the seasoned cappers are doing it.

Thanks in advance for your help

 
MVP
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Posted: #2
The most important thing, there has to be a game to bet on.

And watch a lot of hockey
 
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Posted: #3
Any feedback from you seasoned NHL handicappers out there?
 
Prospect
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Joined: Aug, 2009
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Posted: #4
Another site you should join is hockeypicks.com. They have some handicappers who have a great  deal of insight into how to pick a game and why. And now all we need is some NHL hockey!.
 
Legend
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Joined: Dec, 2001
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Posted: #5

think the consensus of Covers hockeycappers is that the starting goalie is at least 50%. think starting pitcher in baseball and multiply by a factor of 5.

the other half is a combination of teams goals for vs goals against and powerplay % vs penalty kill %. AND, of course, injuries to any key players

NHL is also a "streaky" game much like baseball. teams winning or losing streaks tend to continue

above all, DO NOT lay HUGE minus numbers on any "lock" type "mismatches" esp during the regular season. best price is usually "the better team on the road". so called "home ice" usually doesn't mean shit. this AIN'T the NBA

and like Dith said, "first you have to have games to bet on"

 
Prospect
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Posted: #6
Not that I have bet a lot of hockey but it's extremely similar to baseball. Covering the spread can be difficult with open net goals and so much OT. A good strategy is picking dogs you think will win opposed to favorites because it's usually -1.5 and like I said the open netter is a deal breaker. Dogs on the puckline and spread should work in your favor if you can pick em out correctly. Also, don't factor in home/away much unless the game has significant meaning such a divisional game or rivalry. Like rinkrat said, teams get hot and cold for weeks at a time. Also take a peak at overs and unders as some teams are completely offensive and some are completely defensive (good goalies). Definitely start out with small bets until you get he hang of it and adjust accordingly. Best of luck sir!
 
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Posted: #7
Thanks everyone for the feedback
 
Rookie
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Posted: #8
RPI love that RPI
 
Prospect
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Posted: #9
Aside from basic stat rundowns, i have found the best formula to use is to compare the coaches systems vs. defensive tendencies. NHL coaches are insanely anal on "their" system.

Very few have a free flowing game plan. Most are trying to program their defensive core like robots. If you can find a team with struggling defenders, or injured, or slower bigger guys in a large box system per se, these teams can be exploited by a dynamic coach that can use faster, agile players in certain line combos at home. Remember home teams get to put the last guys out there, so usually coaches match. 

Cap games in smaller markets. Avoid heavy juiced teams like New york, Chicago, Pitts, Philly, etc...

Look for goalies in certain arenas. The boards can have pucks behave very different despite the dimensions being the same. Some goalies just kill it in some arenas and sh$t the bed in others.

There are about 25-30 things I look for and I assign points in accordance to how important the stat is relative to the matchup. So it is dynamic. Just remember, no matter how good you are at picking winners, there are going to be plenty of times things don't go to plan so maintain bankroll management. 

GL
 
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Joined: Jan, 2014
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Posted: #10
Quote Originally Posted by Professor524:

Aside from basic stat rundowns, i have found the best formula to use is to compare the coaches systems vs. defensive tendencies. NHL coaches are insanely anal on "their" system.

Very few have a free flowing game plan. Most are trying to program their defensive core like robots. If you can find a team with struggling defenders, or injured, or slower bigger guys in a large box system per se, these teams can be exploited by a dynamic coach that can use faster, agile players in certain line combos at home. Remember home teams get to put the last guys out there, so usually coaches match. 

Cap games in smaller markets. Avoid heavy juiced teams like New york, Chicago, Pitts, Philly, etc...

Look for goalies in certain arenas. The boards can have pucks behave very different despite the dimensions being the same. Some goalies just kill it in some arenas and sh$t the bed in others.

There are about 25-30 things I look for and I assign points in accordance to how important the stat is relative to the matchup. So it is dynamic. Just remember, no matter how good you are at picking winners, there are going to be plenty of times things don't go to plan so maintain bankroll management. 

GL
respect
 
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Posted: #11
Quote Originally Posted by Professor524:

Aside from basic stat rundowns, i have found the best formula to use is to compare the coaches systems vs. defensive tendencies. NHL coaches are insanely anal on "their" system.

Very few have a free flowing game plan. Most are trying to program their defensive core like robots. If you can find a team with struggling defenders, or injured, or slower bigger guys in a large box system per se, these teams can be exploited by a dynamic coach that can use faster, agile players in certain line combos at home. Remember home teams get to put the last guys out there, so usually coaches match. 

Cap games in smaller markets. Avoid heavy juiced teams like New york, Chicago, Pitts, Philly, etc...

Look for goalies in certain arenas. The boards can have pucks behave very different despite the dimensions being the same. Some goalies just kill it in some arenas and sh$t the bed in others.

There are about 25-30 things I look for and I assign points in accordance to how important the stat is relative to the matchup. So it is dynamic. Just remember, no matter how good you are at picking winners, there are going to be plenty of times things don't go to plan so maintain bankroll management. 

GL

Dug up an old thread but luv this person's thoughts ...
 
 
Prospect
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Joined: Aug, 2014
Posts: 361
Posted: #12
Same Misters. Great insight 
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