12/27/24

THANK GOD WE ARE BACK! At least for another month anyway until the four nations battle royale. 

Took some of the three days off to tally the results from the December speed sheet. This is not what I have played but if I would've followed the speed sheet probabilities at a certain percentage, where the sheet record is for December. 

40%-49% O5.5 17-17 (I never really look at playing these games but have been tracking the numbers through December to see if there are any value plays hiding in that probability range, I do not believe there are. However, at a 50% hit rate there are obviously some games that could be checked out closer.)

50%-60% O5.5 - 43-39 

61%-70% O5.5 26-21 

71%-80% O5.5 1-5 (I do believe this number will improve as data is entered into the sheet. Averages are only as good as the amount of data that is input to them so hopefully the more data the sheet gets, the more accurate this number will be come.)

50%-60% O6.0 37-29 

61%-70% O6.0 4-6 

71%-80% O6.0 1-0

50%-60% O6.5 18-14 

I am hoping to see the fruits of labor of the chart grow. First year trying this method out after years of playing O5.5. Onwards and Upwards, data, data, data...

For today:

BOS/CBJ O5.5 - 71.98% I know. I know, this play is the lowest percentage hit rate for the month of December. BOS on the road is AVG 2 goals per game and CBJ at home are AVG 4 GPG. 70% of BOS road games have gone O5.5 this season while 82% of CBJ home games have gone O5.5 this season. BOS appears to be giving Swayman the night off which is a bummer considering his GAA over 3.0. Merzlikins is sure to let a few by him so we just need to hope BOS remembers the recent 5-1 beating the jackets put on them in Beantown back before Thanksgiving and look for this one to clear 5.5 with both teams scoring. I got this game in last night for the O5.5 -160 in anticipation there would be line movement today and as expected it moved up to -190 for the O5.5. 

CHI/BUF O5.5 - 56.93% O5.5/50.43% O6.0/CHI AVG 3 GPG on the road/BUF AVG 3 GPG at home/CHI 3 of L5 O5.5/BUF 4 of L5 O5.5/3 of L5 meetings O5.5/3 of L5 1P O1.5/Netminders both working around a 3.0GAA. I agree this game is about a 50/50 toss-up. Could be a 3-1 score as easily as a 4-3 final score. Buffalo just picking up their first win in their L10 makes this game slightly more volatile but if BUF can score like they did against NYI before the break, we can expect CHI to net a couple BUF scored 21 goals over their 9-game losing streak AVG 2.33 GPG while allowing 41 over the same 9 games AVG 4.55 GPG to their opponents. That same 9 game span for CHI saw the Blackhawks score 26 goals and allow 30 goals. CHI AVGGPG 2.88 while allowing 3 GPG to thier opponents. Useless information but both teams ended before the Christmas break in games that saw the game totals go O6.5. Currently the line for O5.5 sits at -165. I expect this to climb as the day goes. 

TOR/DET O5.5 - 58.55% O5.5/51.28% O6.0. Not as many indicators for this game but 3 of the L5 meetings between the Wings and Leafs have gone O5.5. Leafs are either scoring a lot of goals or letting in a lot of goals it seems lately. 6 of L6 for the Leafs have been O5.5 and 7 of the L10. DET 4 of L5 have been O5.5 I hate betting Leafs games but if they are scoring ill ride the wave. The O5.5 is at -135 right now. Might get better through the day. 

VGK/SJS O5.5 - 61.52% O5.5/53.81% O6.0/VGK AVG 3.0 GPG on the road/SJS AVG 3.0 GPG at home/2 of L5 meetings O5.5/VGK 2 of L5 O5.5/SJS 4 of L5 O5.5/4 of L5 meetings saw 1P O1.5. 

NAS/STL - I am only pointing this game out because 5 of the L5 meetings between these two teams have gone O5.5 and 4 of the L5 have gone O1.5 in the 1P. NAS has gone O5.5 in 3 of the L5 but that is pretty much where it stops for me. Both goalies sporting a 2.6 GAA. and an AVG 0.908 SV% between the two of them (0.907 & 0.909). The speed sheet doesnt often show games with below a 40% probability to be O5.5. In fact, its only happened one other time in the month of December. On 12/4/24 NAS/TOR had a 37.72% chance to go O5.5 and ended with a final score of 3-2. I am not at all implying that this is a trend worthy of following to place a bet with but definitely one that I will be watching for and will be paying attention to the results of this game. That being said I am hoping for at least 3-2 in this game, based on the team trends when they meet of the over being 9-1 in the L10 I included this game in a 5 leg parlay for games to go O4.5. 

Plays that are locked in for today

BOS/CBJ O5.5 -160

CHI/BUF O5.5 -165

TOR/DET O5.5 -135

5LP +200 @BET365

BOS/CBJ O4.5 -450

CHI/BUF O4.5 -380

TOR/DET O4.5 -425

NAS/STL O4.5 -320

VGK/SJS O4.5 -500

BOL Tonight everyone. I hope everyone was able to spend time with your loved ones over the holidays. Glad to have some hockey back on. Enjoy! Cheers!

Thanks for sharing!

Quick question- are you having to take Alternate lines on many of your O5.5’s or are you generally laying at the posted number?

BOL tonight!!!

@Gainsford

Most of the time it an alternate line to get the O5.5 I exclusively on BET365. On that platform, I am starting see more5.5 games being posted. There are fewer O6.5 and more O6.0, which seem to push quite often. I play flat plays per game keep the juice losses down (although it also marginalizes winnings on plays with more juice). Additionally, I am playing small per game since the data I am using to make plays is still very new to, but everything is based on O5.5. One of the reasons why 6.0 and 6.5 are included on the chart is to track what the most accurate number to play is. I have long been a believer in and tracker of 5.5 being the magic number.4-2 scores were once quite common in EN., it appears that this season teams are not hitting the EN frequently as in previous. This merely an observation based on numerous games I have watched, and I have no data to support this claim. 

@sherriffics

Nice info 

Good Luck tonight trip 

@Fuse TY just trying to share as much as i can so we can all help each other win. 

@dyamarik

  Thank you sir!

Damn! So the 71%+ plays move to 2-5 for december, the last two in a row hitting and they typically involve CBJ. 

Nice sweep of the early games tonight. Still awaiting one leg of the 5 team parlay in the late game.

Some very high scoring affairs early on.

Will be looking for a live play for VGK/SJS O5.5.  

I think the scoring may start early so i may not get the chance at it and its still likely that we see a 4-3 score and the 6.5 is good but yall know me. I like that Ole 5.5. 

Nice work trip