YTD: 59-44-5 (57%)
Wild Card Weekend
New Orleans -10
Hate to lay this many points, especially in the playoffs, but I think this game gets ugly for the Seahawks. My main fear is how many INT's Brees has thrown this year and I believe Seattle will cover if Brees throws 2 or more picks. Having said that, I think Brees will have a solid game in this one.
Bottom line here for me to lay this many points...I just don't think the Seahawks can score enough to stay in this game. The Seahawks rank low in all major statistical categories on both sides of the ball. New Orleans always gets attention to their offense, but quietly their defense has played really well this year. I was also leaning to the over, but I'm afraid that the Seahawks may only score 10 points in this game.
Indy -2.5 & OVER 44.5
This is a bad matchup for the Jets. Late in the year, I had faded the Colts as they seemed to be out of sync on offense because of all their injuries. I think they've begun to get much of that critical timing back and I like them to drop a big number on the Jets. The Jets are having issues getting pressure with their front 4 and this I believe is the biggest problem in this game for the Jets. If you don't pressure Manning, he will carve you up. If you need to blitz him to bring pressure, he will carve you up. This is why I think this is just a bad matchup. The jets have struggled to score TD's a lot this year and this will be a problem for them in this game if they have to settle for FG's.
Green Bay +3.5 (hook) & UNDER 46.5
I love Green Bay in this game, but I will take the points just in case. Obviously both teams are explosive offensively so I think the advantage in this game is to GB because of their defense. I know GB lacks the running game and people think that makes them 1 dimensional, but they've always had a good screen game and that is an extension of the run game. Philly likes to gamble a lot of defense and GB is talented enough with their receivers and running backs catching the ball to turn those gambles into big plays.
As for the UNDER, I know this is going against the grain as most will be on the over. I hate to go against KALIND as he's been unbelievable this year with totals, but I just believe that GB's defense will slow down the Eagles offense enough to come under the total. Where the Packers struggle on D is against the run, so if the Eagles are going to have success consistently moving the ball, it will be on the ground which will keep the clock running. I also like that it's a playoff game and Andy Reid likes to gamble as it is, so I see the possibility for some 4th and 5 type situations where the Eagles go for it and aren't successful, thus keeping points off the board.
Good luck everyone.
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