WHY YOU SHOULD BET THE HOME TEAMS.....

Both visiting teams have spent last three weeks on the road.  I don't think they can do it again.  Got go with home teams this weekend.

GB vs. Bears +3.5

I love the packers and feel that they have a good chance to win this game.  If they win it will be from Aaron Rodgers and not from their running game.  There is no way Starks has another big day and jackson is a joke.  Any time Starks has gotten a shot, he has done well.  The second time out not so much.  With the packers forced to pass in the Chicago weather, at chicago, with chicago's defense.  There is a good chance for showdown.  Game will be decided by FG or less.  Therefore I'm taking the Bears +3.5.  Also taking the Under 3.5.  See the Bears keeping Rodgers off the field much like Jets did to the Pats last week to brady.

NY vs Pit -3.5

Rex Ryan is finally backing up the smack talk and took the foot out of his mouth, well not literally.  Pit is going to destroy the jets here.  Steelers defense is too good, Jets can't get through Indy, Pats, and Steelers for one of the greatest super bowl runs in history with sanchez at QB.  Jets won't bring down Big Ben and Big Ben won't throw picks.  The only way they win this is outstanding play from their QB and big gains by Greene and LT - don't see either of those happening.  Pitt has back Troy P. (even at 50%,one of the best in the league) and Heath Miller since the last time they played. They will shut down long passes to wallace & sanders and look for Ward and Miller to have big days!!!!  Taking Steelers -3.5 and the over 38.5.

I am like the guy on a radio show - long time listener first time caller.  Any time I can post my picks, get reactions, and either make a fool of myself or look like a genius.  I could go 0-4 this weekend, but I see at worst 1 of these 4 not hitting.  Everything falls in place and I will go 4-0.

Record 149-119 56%

NFL Playoffs - 11-8 58%

NCAA Bowls - 22-7 76%

i like both plays, J18. Seems you have been doing well in NFL playoffs and exceptional in NCAA playoffs. You beat me by one and half game in the NCAAF Bowls (23-9-3 ATS), awesome, bud.

Who you like if both Bears and Steelers should make it to the Big Dance, assuming PIT -4? Thaks and good luck!

I would give the edge to the steelers because of their receiving core.  Thats a tough one because they will be in Jerry Land and I could see Devin Hester being a game changer if they punt to him inside the dome.

thanks cooler and good luck!

The only one I disagree is the Bears under, and it's strictly due to statistics.  It's not easy to hit the under 3 times against the same team in one year.  Best of luck, jbr18

Thanks Kaufee, I have read everybody's posts long enough to know that your "record" doesn't mean anything unless it can be proven,  Majority of the weeks I have been at 50% and from December on, have been on a streak, sure to end sometime.  Probably the moment I decide to start sharing on covers.

True about Cutler - but he has been successful as of late with Martz.  The Pack certainly have a big time defense and the better qb.  But I'm hoping the Bears defense play out of their minds.  I'm in the middle on this one and the one out of 4 that I feel less confident about.  I actually think Pack win but by less than 3.5.  If you wait it may go up to 4 or 4.5. Somebody that doesn't have a gambling problem would stay away from this one, but if I'm watching it- I'm playing it.  Since I'm in the middle, I have to take the points, home, and weather as big advantages.

As for steelers O-Line, they do suck.  But big ben is a beast and I don't even like him that much.  He is that player that just gets the job done but he doesn't ever do anything that stands out.  I don't know the stat but would like to see how many times he is hurried compared to sacks or even knock downs.  I like the fact that he doesn't throw many picks.  Mark Sanchez is not even in the same ballpark and they can't win this game in the air.  Patriots pass defense is terrible, terrible turnovers, and the only reason jets squeeze through.  Steelers don't make mistakes, solid hard nose football.

True!!!!  If you could sell me on one pick - it would be GB to cover.

Thanks Brum!  I don't like trends, they are always considered but I tend to go by actual stats and matchup feel.  I only see over hitting if GB gets on a roll against the defense and putting up  a lot of points.  So if you like the over, you probably have to go with GB as well.

I like the under, because i'm betting this will be defensive battle in windy chicago.  I just thought of this as well for your trend - the weather has been more accountable for the unders at soldier field, than the bears.  I see the weather in soldier field just as big of a factor against the packers as the tough bears defense.  So if they can't pass they have to run - bears have a better run game and keep rodgers off the field.