Where's the handicap?

@Vcdplaya3014

Throw in some turnovers from the Superbowl jitters and it's close to the spread.

Maye's strength is running and throwing deep. Is he able & willing to do both with (maybe) a bad shoulder? 

If NE turns to a short passing game to protect Maye (15 sacks and 6 fumbles in 3 playoff games), Seattle will sit on routes and grind out a physical, low scoring game.

Vrabel is very good, but McDonald doesn't seem to beat himself with unnecessary 4th down gambles, so I would call the coaching even.

As far as the halftime show is concerned, I couldn't give two fucks. Live and let live, or dig up Frank Sinatra and have him perform if that's your thing.

@Raiders22

 I'm with you, think we see a really good game 

@BenZolina

 Macdonald, nor Vrabel go for it on 4th down if the team is in FG range. Depending on score and time of the game ofcourse. 

@brn2loslive2win

Top two scoring defenses.

Two of the top opponent yards per point.

Two of the top four opponents points per play.

Both have negative EPA/Play against the pass and the run.

Both have good positive PS/Play against the run.

And some various other defensive stats.

They do not allow a lot of busted plays passing or rushing or too many explosive ones either.

Plus the Drake Maye ‘injury’ I think has to be considered.

I think these all set up for both teams to start slow by being careful with their QBs and trying to build their ‘confidence’ as the game progresses.

I do not think either coach will want their QB to get rattled early or fall too far behind early.

I also think both coaches will not be as apt to go for it on some questionable 4th down-type plays as other coaches would be with more ‘experienced’ or more ‘big-game’ QBs and will punt and play a more field-position type of game.

I took Seattle -4.5 early.  But I feel if Maye gets a great update this week some pro money will come in on New England.  Some of the guys I know mostly took a position on Seattle because of the Maye ‘news’.  So, I could see some of that changing.

So, I think it could get to -4 this week, and I like that a bit better.

But I took a larger portion on the U46 early. 

But it still has to play out that way.  

So, you may get a wide open game for an easy blowout and it might still stay under.

@Raiders22

 With all due respect to your research efforts and the excellent information you provide to us here on covers…

The only teams that the Patriots have held under 20 points this season, not counting the playoffs for what I believe are very obvious reasons-

Panthers, saints, titans, browns, jets1, giants, jets2, dolphins. 

Every other team on their schedule has scored on average 23.67 ppg. Now I didn’t dig as deep as to see how many of those were offensive points and that certainly does matter. 

It’s really hard to use the patriots season long stats and metrics to handicap this Super Bowl. I know you’re on Seattle so I’m not directing this entirely at you. But is it possible that we could potentially throw all of those numbers out the window? Realistically, what they did to that schedule is not that impressive. How can we measure the quality of the patriots defense against the worst offenses in the NFL? 

The only thing I truly believe about this patriots team is that the offense is good. Not great, just good. And almost entirely because Drake Maye has made them that good. They have some talent and some of it very underrated, but it’s the classic scenario of zero elite offensive players having their potential raised by having a good quarterback. That said, I think they can score on Seattle. I think they can get to at least 20. And I think that if Seattle is somewhat aggressive (which you’re right, they probably won’t be in the first half or maybe at all) that Seattle has potential to get to 30 points. I just think the number is too low at 45. I lean over but won’t have a play on the total. The fact that both coaches will most likely kick fgs when they should just helps that case a little more.

I may be totally wrong but I’m just not convinced that this patriots defense is really that good. I guess we’ll find out soon!

@brn2loslive2win

 Yessir.  You very well could be correct. 
Should be very interesting how it plays out.  

@Raiders22

 Just to add to my ranting a little more 

Mike McDonald has made it clear that he has full faith in Darnold. Whether he truly does or not, nobody knows. But it doesn’t seem like he’s trying to necessarily protect his qb from ruining the game. I’d like to see let’s call it a moderately aggressive offense in the Super Bowl. Throwing on first down, play action, and high percentage intermediate throws throughout the game. As opposed to trying to run the ball and play old school football for 4 quarters. He can potentially have success with that type of game and a great defense, but imo playing football that way in this era is just asking to get beat in the 4th quarter. I’m hoping McDonald understands that and makes an effort to score and establish a commanding lead. In which case the patriots will have to play more aggressively on offense and yada yada yada you see where I’m going. 

@Vcdplaya3014

 The handicap on this game is fairly simple.

New England’s offense is by far the weakest unit of the four units on the field. Seattle D-line will overwhelm a weak OL from the patriots, and nobody on the patriots will be open against the Seattle secondary. New England won’t even sniff 20 points in the contest and that certainly won’t be enough to win.  

Unless Darnold has a catastrophically bad game with 3 INT, there is no path for New England to win. New England’s defense is good enough to produce a cover and muck up the game. But Seattle will be comfortably ahead all game and not in any danger of actually losing.

Final score 24-13 Seachickens win.

You really should do a little research before putting your first post on this thread and on the NFL forum

Fyi the patriots had the number three overall rated offense in all of football behind the Rams and Cowboys while the Seahawks were ranked 7th in overall offense 

I have and will continue to say this and it's this game will be close....very close, and the Patriots with +4.5 points is an extremely generous gift.

Besides the above mentioned facts the patriots have committed 16 turnovers this season while the Seahawks have committed 27

The Patriots do a much better job in protecting the football as Seattle does.

Don't sleep on the patriots defense either......they will no doubt show up and Darnold may be seeing a lot more than ghosts this up and coming Sunday afternoon. 

@justliketoplay

  Good Post