If I was giving advice to a novice I would say the one main key is bet the same amount every game and make sure it is no more than 5% of your bankroll.
The other key thing I would say, which I also need to take more heed of is to not play so many favorites. Beyond bad bankroll management that's why most people lose. Yes, most favorites covered yesterday and even last week too but then look at the last 3 primetime games in the NFL. If I told you Seattle would beat the Cowboys on the road, GB would beat KC and the Bengals would beat the Jags without Burrow you probably would have said I was off my rocker.
Well 2 of them won and Seattle probably should have.
I'm finding it hard to see dogs I like this year because there are so many bad teams, teams that can't score. Someone posted that the worst offense in the NFL last year averaged 16 points a game and this year 7 teams are doing that or worse.
If you do play a lot of favorites it usually pays more to just always bet against the worst teams instead of always on the best ones. The worst teams tend to turn it over more and are crap in the red zone and those two areas are usually what swings the spread in an NFL game.
Beyond playing too many favorites I also feel like I take too many home teams. I feel like I rarely bet road teams at all this season especially.
But anyway if you watch the NFL you see the way it is now all the games are fkin coin flips especially the TV games. So tbh I would say don't ever fool yourself you're going to get rich off this parity filled product. Last year I got so sick of every game being a sweat down to the final drive I didn't even want to bet this year. I eventually caved, missed it too much, but I'm getting sick of it again, this time of year is always weird for me too. I can't wait til bowl season I usually do well then, and around the time the bowls start the favorites in NFL are usually good, the good teams really bring their A game to lock up top seeds/divisions/home field and the bad teams are usually ready to give up and are often also decimated by injuries.
I think next year I'm going to put half my bankroll into one account and try a system where I don't even try to cap the games any more the way I usually do with stats, situations and such. Because it matters so much less now with the way theyre all coin flips anyway. I'm going to force myself to take 50% dogs and 50% road teams. I'm gonna take one favorite and one dog in each time slot on Sunday and only one of them can be at home.
In the other account I'm going to cap the way I normally do, and see which one ends up doing better. I know the 50/50 system won't make me rich but I just wonder if forcing myself to avoid my tendencies and introduce some random restrictions could make me a little better at this game.
I mean it's actually funny how being obsessed with football and knowing all the stats, players etc can often not mean squat. I dunno if people still play weekly office pools where you pay like 10 bucks each, everyone fills out a form where you pick the side and total for every game and get a point for every winner whoever has the most points wins the pot? We used to back in the day at a place I worked at which was mostly men and one of the secretaries who knew nothing about football and just picked randomly based on what helmets or names she liked used to do just as well or better than the rest of us who were sports junkies. It was actually a newspaper, and the sports writers didn't seem to ever win it!
and crawling through covers 
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