Posted:
#1
Lots of patience 
and crawling through covers 
What's one main key to win long term
...
Views: 792
Posts: 21
Posted:
#6
If I was giving advice to a novice I would say the one main key is bet the same amount every game and make sure it is no more than 5% of your bankroll.
The other key thing I would say, which I also need to take more heed of is to not play so many favorites. Beyond bad bankroll management that's why most people lose. Yes, most favorites covered yesterday and even last week too but then look at the last 3 primetime games in the NFL. If I told you Seattle would beat the Cowboys on the road, GB would beat KC and the Bengals would beat the Jags without Burrow you probably would have said I was off my rocker.
Well 2 of them won and Seattle probably should have.
I'm finding it hard to see dogs I like this year because there are so many bad teams, teams that can't score. Someone posted that the worst offense in the NFL last year averaged 16 points a game and this year 7 teams are doing that or worse.
If you do play a lot of favorites it usually pays more to just always bet against the worst teams instead of always on the best ones. The worst teams tend to turn it over more and are crap in the red zone and those two areas are usually what swings the spread in an NFL game.
Beyond playing too many favorites I also feel like I take too many home teams. I feel like I rarely bet road teams at all this season especially.
But anyway if you watch the NFL you see the way it is now all the games are fkin coin flips especially the TV games. So tbh I would say don't ever fool yourself you're going to get rich off this parity filled product. Last year I got so sick of every game being a sweat down to the final drive I didn't even want to bet this year. I eventually caved, missed it too much, but I'm getting sick of it again, this time of year is always weird for me too. I can't wait til bowl season I usually do well then, and around the time the bowls start the favorites in NFL are usually good, the good teams really bring their A game to lock up top seeds/divisions/home field and the bad teams are usually ready to give up and are often also decimated by injuries.
I think next year I'm going to put half my bankroll into one account and try a system where I don't even try to cap the games any more the way I usually do with stats, situations and such. Because it matters so much less now with the way theyre all coin flips anyway. I'm going to force myself to take 50% dogs and 50% road teams. I'm gonna take one favorite and one dog in each time slot on Sunday and only one of them can be at home.
In the other account I'm going to cap the way I normally do, and see which one ends up doing better. I know the 50/50 system won't make me rich but I just wonder if forcing myself to avoid my tendencies and introduce some random restrictions could make me a little better at this game.
I mean it's actually funny how being obsessed with football and knowing all the stats, players etc can often not mean squat. I dunno if people still play weekly office pools where you pay like 10 bucks each, everyone fills out a form where you pick the side and total for every game and get a point for every winner whoever has the most points wins the pot? We used to back in the day at a place I worked at which was mostly men and one of the secretaries who knew nothing about football and just picked randomly based on what helmets or names she liked used to do just as well or better than the rest of us who were sports junkies. It was actually a newspaper, and the sports writers didn't seem to ever win it!
Posted:
#10
Thanks for the responses! Honestly I have been very erratic either win alot or lose then chase and lose the winnings. Now I am trying to only bet in game for prime time games, as i think I have found a system that has worked for me. Watching the numbers all game long on team totals to original numbers, throughout the game and being patient and finding the winner in 4th qtr. It does require decipline because in 4th qtr you are paying heavy juice. Let's see how this goes
Posted:
#11
Try my overtime experiment which has you in action every NFL game and will NOT leave you busted and depressed and may have you at times pick up a 19-1 shot as it did last night on Monday night football (Bengals/Jaguars)
Lots of great advice from the above posters as well but betting on these games in years past for me has always been stressful and filled with weekly up and down emotions and my 2nd year of overtime experiment has been no doubt 100% stress free for me and I feel has been the best therapy in my approach to gambling because l don't want to be stressed out week in and week out doing hours of homework only to find out that all that work didn't mean Jackshit in the end but I do like my newly discovered stress-free overtime experiment because no doubt I do.Justliketoplay
When I win Money it's my money and NOT house money
Posted:
#14
Random thoughts:
Relying solely on statistics to bet football won't make you a winner. The built-in variance is way too great in the game. Football is not a rational game. If it were, the ball would be round instead of an odd oblong shape.
You have to learn to read the lines to win at football. Line reading doesn't come easy; it's intuitive more than rational, and people, especially guys, don't intuit well. Reading lines is not the same as handicapping. A few people are naturals; most of us have to work at it.
The odds makers know infinitely more the you the bettor does. You have to understand this fact. Of course they know more than you do. They have much better resources for acquiring information, and their stake in the game is much higher than yours. It's not a far stretch to say that all the statistical and injury info is wired in to and included in the point spread.
Occasionally the oddsmakers will tip their hand by the line they put out and tell you which team is the better bet. (Case in point-- the 49ers/Eagles spread last week.) Yes, the books have the better info, but the bettor can learn to use their own info to beat them. That's the essence of line reading.
But you have to be selective and learn to stay away from the games you have no read on. This is one of the hardest things for a bettor to do.
Just my .02. Hope all have a successful rest of the season. And you know we might win a little more if we all worked together instead of working to bring somebody down.
RT2
Posted:
#15
Quote Originally Posted by RebelTell2:
Random thoughts: Relying solely on statistics to bet football won't make you a winner. The built-in variance is way too great in the game. Football is not a rational game. If it were, the ball would be round instead of an odd oblong shape. You have to learn to read the lines to win at football. Line reading doesn't come easy; it's intuitive more than rational, and people, especially guys, don't intuit well. Reading lines is not the same as handicapping. A few people are naturals; most of us have to work at it. The odds makers know infinitely more the you the bettor does. You have to understand this fact. Of course they know more than you do. They have much better resources for acquiring information, and their stake in the game is much higher than yours. It's not a far stretch to say that all the statistical and injury info is wired in to and included in the point spread. Occasionally the oddsmakers will tip their hand by the line they put out and tell you which team is the better bet. (Case in point-- the 49ers/Eagles spread last week.) Yes, the books have the better info, but the bettor can learn to use their own info to beat them. That's the essence of line reading. But you have to be selective and learn to stay away from the games you have no read on. This is one of the hardest things for a bettor to do. Just my .02. Hope all have a successful rest of the season. And you know we might win a little more if we all worked together instead of working to bring somebody down. RT2
Random thoughts: Relying solely on statistics to bet football won't make you a winner. The built-in variance is way too great in the game. Football is not a rational game. If it were, the ball would be round instead of an odd oblong shape. You have to learn to read the lines to win at football. Line reading doesn't come easy; it's intuitive more than rational, and people, especially guys, don't intuit well. Reading lines is not the same as handicapping. A few people are naturals; most of us have to work at it. The odds makers know infinitely more the you the bettor does. You have to understand this fact. Of course they know more than you do. They have much better resources for acquiring information, and their stake in the game is much higher than yours. It's not a far stretch to say that all the statistical and injury info is wired in to and included in the point spread. Occasionally the oddsmakers will tip their hand by the line they put out and tell you which team is the better bet. (Case in point-- the 49ers/Eagles spread last week.) Yes, the books have the better info, but the bettor can learn to use their own info to beat them. That's the essence of line reading. But you have to be selective and learn to stay away from the games you have no read on. This is one of the hardest things for a bettor to do. Just my .02. Hope all have a successful rest of the season. And you know we might win a little more if we all worked together instead of working to bring somebody down. RT2
Good post I agree with it all.
Posted:
#17
Quote Originally Posted by RebelTell2:
Random thoughts: Relying solely on statistics to bet football won't make you a winner. The built-in variance is way too great in the game. Football is not a rational game. If it were, the ball would be round instead of an odd oblong shape. You have to learn to read the lines to win at football. Line reading doesn't come easy; it's intuitive more than rational, and people, especially guys, don't intuit well. Reading lines is not the same as handicapping. A few people are naturals; most of us have to work at it. The odds makers know infinitely more the you the bettor does. You have to understand this fact. Of course they know more than you do. They have much better resources for acquiring information, and their stake in the game is much higher than yours. It's not a far stretch to say that all the statistical and injury info is wired in to and included in the point spread. Occasionally the oddsmakers will tip their hand by the line they put out and tell you which team is the better bet. (Case in point-- the 49ers/Eagles spread last week.) Yes, the books have the better info, but the bettor can learn to use their own info to beat them. That's the essence of line reading. But you have to be selective and learn to stay away from the games you have no read on. This is one of the hardest things for a bettor to do. Just my .02. Hope all have a successful rest of the season. And you know we might win a little more if we all worked together instead of working to bring somebody down. RT2
Random thoughts: Relying solely on statistics to bet football won't make you a winner. The built-in variance is way too great in the game. Football is not a rational game. If it were, the ball would be round instead of an odd oblong shape. You have to learn to read the lines to win at football. Line reading doesn't come easy; it's intuitive more than rational, and people, especially guys, don't intuit well. Reading lines is not the same as handicapping. A few people are naturals; most of us have to work at it. The odds makers know infinitely more the you the bettor does. You have to understand this fact. Of course they know more than you do. They have much better resources for acquiring information, and their stake in the game is much higher than yours. It's not a far stretch to say that all the statistical and injury info is wired in to and included in the point spread. Occasionally the oddsmakers will tip their hand by the line they put out and tell you which team is the better bet. (Case in point-- the 49ers/Eagles spread last week.) Yes, the books have the better info, but the bettor can learn to use their own info to beat them. That's the essence of line reading. But you have to be selective and learn to stay away from the games you have no read on. This is one of the hardest things for a bettor to do. Just my .02. Hope all have a successful rest of the season. And you know we might win a little more if we all worked together instead of working to bring somebody down. RT2
Just another opinion, not right or wrong....
I disagree almost totally. I suggest that objective analysis is way more reliable than subjective analysis - and always will be - at almost every aspect of lifes decisions.
I advocate to the exact opposite of what you suggest. Ignore your gut as much as possible, and use objective models to formulate your decisions. Yes, the ball is oblong - which is why over the long term you need to eliminate the bounces of the ball by correctly forecasting long term probabilities. This can only be done objectively. Subjective feelings and human readings are terrible predictors of probabilities.
Like I said, just another opinion.
Support your local animal shelter. I am on twitter.
Posted:
#21
Make sure you have lots of SEX between gambling days , it really relaxes the mind and body and your focus will be great
have other daily hobbies so you don’t fall into the trap of gambling EVERYDAY, if you fall into that trap you could possibly become a DEGENERATE , like needing the crack everyday , be careful , if you don’t have money to bet , don’t be getting bank loans
these are just tips , have nothing to do with your VISION , which in my opinion is most critical in determining if your a good capper
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