Week 7 NFL Sun

Interesting how the only 2 undefeated teams left come off the bye week, and yet neither are favored by more than a point and one is actually a dog.

And I think it's fair enough tbh. I don't think there's much between the Lions and Vikings on what has been seen so far and Goff usually dices that Minnesota defense. I like the Detroit running game and think they can beat anyone. They're perfectly at home if their opponents want to trade going up and down the field. This game is going to be proof (for now) of who the best team in the division likely is so motivation will be high, and the NFL is a league that loves parity and wouldn't it be interesting if these two teams face off in week 17 in Detroit with identical records? It could happen. I think they will have identical records after today. Taking Lions here.

And it actually wouldn't surprise me if both these undefeated bye week teams lost. Why would you want a week off when you have all this momentum?

Well the Chiefs definitely still would as they are banged up and Reid has a great record off the bye (an angle that everyone and their mother has known about for almost a decade). But I haven't been super impressed with them. Their offense is somewhat struggling. It's not good in the red zone even tho Kelce is still playing and it's the 9ers, not the Chiefs, who lead the league in yards per completion. Their wins have been workmanlike, relying on an excellent defense. They haven't cracked 30 points once (SF has done 3 times), they have a negative turnover margin.

So even without the biggest revenge angle possible there's cause to make them a dog despite having not lost yet and despite SF losing by doing what Shanahan loves to do, blow big leads.

This would be a huge play if it wasn't for that tendency which has caused me to burn a lot of tickets including last year's SB, the Arizona game. It's happened too often and the Chiefs have done the opposite (come back on teams down big). I still like the 9ers tho because they are doing so much better on offense.

One unit each on these plays

Almost forgot about the London game! I said a few weeks ago when the Jags won their first game vs Miami and I had them, that they would split their London games, giving Pederson a bit of a reprieve when he won the 2nd one, and then looking at their schedule it's brutal after this and I think they will go in the tank again and Dougie gets fired because hey, can't get rid of the QB who we just overpaid.

The Jags suck but NE is somehow even worse. It's full on rebuild mode under a rookie coach, rookie QB and word of 'lineup changes' from the coaches basically saying they will be playing more young guys to see what they have there. The offense is pitiful.

Unless the players hate Pederson then I don't see them losing to two rookie QBs in London back to back. Chicago is actually very solid and it was no surprise they beat the brakes off them.

Pats Oline is a mess and their passing game is so bad it probably can't even take advantage of the Jags last ranked pass defense.

There's a big storm hitting Ireland today where i live but it doesn't look to be having an effect as far as London, it will be up a lot more northern by game time, tho I'm surprised with us getting 100 mph winds it's only breezy over there.

Even so the Under looks promising with these two teams who can't convert red zone chances. But I'll stick with a unit on the Jags to save Dougie's bacon for another week. He won't be there next year though i don't think, and I'll be fading them for the rest of this season (along with the Pats)

Colts -3 2 units

Anyone who has read my posts on Miami knows how much I hate their coach. I think he sucks, Tyreek is a POS, and the Colts are underrated. They're 4th in yards per completion (above minny and detroit who are 6th and 5th), middle of the pack in yards per carry (Miami is 26th). The Dolphins are dead last in points per play (with the offensive genius coach!) and 25th in points allowed per play.

Coming home to the dome off two road games, I'll happily lay a FG to that clown who probably won't get fired because Tua got hurt even tho he should because he sucks. Hope he keeps going for every 4th down and getting stuffed like he does every week.

ESPN will tell you 'analytics says GO' every time. I fkin hate it! Miami is converting 4th downs at a whopping 14% on the season they need to fk away off with that graphic on every game. It's all BS and it's making variance in football way worse than it used to be. Teams refusing to kick and take a lead in the first quarter of a time game, stuff like that makes no sense. You should only go for it if early on if you're down 2 scores+, or if you're losing late in the game.

Two plays I am considering but a little reluctant to pull the trigger, each coming home off 3 straight road games

Browns +6

Hard to take this team with their bad offense and having just traded their best WR - and when your best WR leads the NFL in drops you know you suck.i

It's their first division game of the season, they are home for the first time in a month after 3 straight road games, and the Bengals haven't won in Cleveland aince 2017. But there's not much else in the way of bright spots other than Chubb is coming back and they showed some signs of life last week, maybe they can lose and cover again. The Bengals aren't that good this year so far.

But the Browns cannot do anything on offense. Can't convert a 3rd down to save their life. I just don't know can i bring myself to bet on them, they are probably more likely NOT gonna cover two weeks in a row. I hate taking teams with no offense.

I'd rather it was Chubbs 2nd or 3rd week back and could see how he is running. He usually kills the Bengals who have given up the most rushing 1st downs in the NFL. The Browns have given up the most sacks but Cincis pass rush isn't getting home much thjs year only 1.3 per game 30th in the NFL. One thing Cleveland has done well is stop teams from scoring in the 4th quarter, least pts allowed in the final q in the NFL so if they can hang around it might squeak a cover.

The other one is Bills -9

Ive bet on this team at around a 10 point favorite enough times with Josh Allen at QB to know they really struggle to cover this kind of number. They blow teams out when they're a dog or small favorite.

On paper they should blow the Titans out but it's just my experience with them, and Tennessee the one thing they do have is a good red zone defense.

I'll decide closer to kickoff but those are my thoughts on those two games

Bol today

FYI Mason Rudolph is starting for the Titans. Bills should blow them out!!

Rudolph is an upgrade over Will Levis, I had Tennessee in the game he came in and brought them back to beat Miami. But still, they are next to last in pass yards only NE is worse and should have trouble keeping up.

These two teams tho tend to play tight games ever since Titans pulled off the music city miracle in the playoffs.

 I'm gonna go ahead and take them anyway, and the Browns too. Now that the Jags have turned the game around im feeling good.

Also adding:

GB -3

Bit of a tricky spot for Houston playing 2nd of 2 road games in out of conference with Colts on deck. The Texans can't run and GB has a very good ground game. If they can force the Texans top ranked red zone offense (surprising for a team that struggles to run) to kick some FGs i think they can get it done.

Houston is also shorthanded in the secondary with Jinmie Ward out.

Adding one more

Under 50.5 Detroit/Minnesota 

1 unit

Just think it will be a playoff type atmosphere, one team off a bye, might not crack 50.