Week 7... 4 team 13 point teaser (4-2 on season)

Last week I am glad I avoided the 4 team 13 pointer because I would have lost on HOU and possibly DAL...

I think that is what I am working on this season is to play the 4 team 13 pointer when it is appropriate and avoid it when I am not feeling it... In the past I probably would have just put in a 4 team 13 pointer every week blindly....

Speaking on feeling it, this week there is a scenario in two games that I wait all season for...  Teams that are home dogs of off a bye are undefeated in the last 3 seasons.... They are also historically in the mid 90% range which +13 point logic is great... And there appear to be two games!!!

BUF +16
This is a game where BAL has had difficulty finding the end zone and getting more then 2 TDs at home is a good spot for BUF...Fading BAL is -15 ATS and +3 points ATS is 6-0... 

DEN +16.5
I like this spot from the stand point of DEN getting killed and then having the bye week to think about it and come back and make a good showing at home...
DEN has won its last 4 seasons ATS after a bye week...  PIT who is 2-2 ATS in their last 4 season after a bye make this kind of scary with the success they have had this season...

now I just gotta find the 2 other picks...

Any more ideas or suggestions?

Oh I forgot the math...

+13 points ATS lost 5 out of the 26 outcomes = 73.08%

This is not a good percentage last week and brings the season total to 38 losers out of 178 outcomes = 78.65%....

hopefully things get better this week, I dont know if I have ever seen a season go under 80% + 13 points ATS, so perhaps it should...

any more ideas or suggestions on picks?

Chiefs +16, Oak just doesn't have enough offense and maybe KC Johnson having another good game. Oak run Y/att Def is worst and run Y/G is 5th worst.

Good Luck everyone!

My 4 team teaser are:

NE-4
KC+16
CHI+18
IND+10

Tydarius,

touch luck on the JAX game, they usually do not win by that much, but there always seems to be a games at home when they do...

I see where you are going with WAS and typically WAS is a good team +13 points, I guess I dont see the value int eh line with them being such high favs... a pick to consider tho...

NO is a team that started 0-3 +13 points ATS... I think both NO and NYG had very public road wins and are favored by alot this week, which might lack value... but perhaps getting it at a decent number like more then a FG can make it more appealing...

willywonka,

There is just a very gut reaction to this game of NE@MIA... People often talk about "gut feelings"...  mine is more of a taste adversion, like if you eat something bad or spoiled and get food poisoning... I am pretty sure that I took NE@MIA last year that kill my teaser with a 0-21 loss.... 

With that said, perhaps after the stealing signals (irony) that occurred in that game, perhaps NE will look to humiliate MIA and take this game personally like Culpepper did @MIA...

Zumbize,

KC +16 at home is one thing, but on the road to me is a different situation...this is one of those games that I think is really 50/50....but historically I cant recall the last time OAK beat KC SU....

Gmitran talked about OAK having a  weak rushing defense which should favor LJ and the rushing attack...perhaps I should consider this one...

PHI +8
This is a good number getting more then a TD... I am not sure how these teams match up,  I could see how CHI's defense got embarrassed and will commit to not getting run on, but PHI historically has not been a run the ball type of team...There might be merit however in fading CHI +13 points ATS this season...

TB +14
First off I would try to get a better number then that and get better then 2 TDs... secondly, I think this is a wierd spot for TB on the road and DET coming off of a humiliating loss and having the bye week to work on it.. I dont know what to make of this game, but I have this feeling that in 2003 DET was the last byedog/home dog to lose +13 points ATS.... perhaps this feeling of them coming off of a bye is something that makes me think... 

WAS +6 is another game people have been talking about...

MIN +23
This is a game that in some respects makes sense, mathematically you are taking a decent defense that has given up an average of 18 points a game and getting +23...  What I am concerned about is that DAL might be able to match up physically with their rushing game and limit their rushing attack and I think MIN will have difficulty if they have to play from behind on the road... could get ugly...  not a bad idea tho...

89010,

good suggestions I guess, but I am not going to bet against DEN in the bye dog/home dog situation...

Steves84,

another WAS pick, interesting...I will look into that...  both +6 and +5 are mediocre at best numbers...

IND to me is a team that I think fairs well +13 points ATS, but that +10 number to me is no better then +7.5 and lacks value that way... also historically I JAX has not lost against IND +13 points ATS as well as doing fairly ATS....

nighthawk,
I think I addressed all of your picks except CHI +18.  CHI has the potential to get blown out in the this situation so this to me is scary, however I like the number getting more then 17 points...  I think there is alot of variability and unpredictability in this game and I would stay away from both sides...

Based on input,  I will consider the following picks for now and come up with more of my own later...

KC +16
NE -4
WAS +6

and the system plays

BUF +16
DEN +16.5

any more ideas or suggestions?

After some thought with injuries to WAS and at that number, I am laying off...

I dont like the NE game because of history, but I dont like the IND@ JAX game based on history as I could see either pick losing...division rivals, and IND could be looking for payback or get beat physically again..

Another division game to look at is STL@SEA, SEA is 4-0 SU in the last 2 seasons against STL, but this is game that both teams have stayed with in +13 points ATS...  this to me could also go either way with branch still being out...

So really for lack of better picks this is my teaser right now...

NE-4
KC +16
BUF +16
DEN +17

any more ideas or suggestions?

SEA

I wouldn't worry too much about Miami v. NE cause I don't think u can compare this NE to any prev team.  Having said that, under 3 would make me feel much more comfortable after a 13 pts tease.

Gmitran,

I dont know if the line will shift to 15.5.... I think Doc robert is on MIA this week, but I dont for see that much of a shift...

So I am considering alternatives...

DAL +3
I laid off of this because of the number, but DAL to win SU against MIN that ran all over CHI last week to me makes sense...  MIN will not be able to run on DAL's more physical defense and DAL in theory should be able to throw on MIN's defense who I believe is ranked last in yards per game...

So this is what I got...


KC +16
BUF +16
DEN +17
and then either NE -4 or DAL +3

any more ideas or suggestions?

I know u don't like teasing CFB but Vandy @ S. Car -1 is one I like a lot.  Don't see SC losing at home at all to Vandy.

I'd still take NE -4 BTW even though it's above FG.

I am continuing to have trouble with the final pick...

NE -4 bothers me... I feel like my BUF and DEN picks are based on years and years of experience...  This game based on my experience has been one that I havent liked..  There is something also about an undefeated team playing in MIA who is winless that does not feel right to me...  I would hate to play this and then lose and know that it did not feel right...

Historically however DAL has done well SU before its bye week... an interesting trend that saw.
non-divisional home favorites -7 or more before its bye week is 16-3 in the last 7 seasons....  DAL was one of these games in 2005 as DAL as home favs of -9 beating ARZ 34-13...

So my thinking is to go with DAL to win SU vs taking NE at -4..

HOU is circled right now, but a game that I would seriously consider if it was not...

But this is where I am at right now...
KC +16
BUF +16
DEN +17
DAL +3

Anymore ideas or suggestions?

I think im going to but in this 4 team 13 point teaser before I talk my self into something stupid... 

DAL is also +4 which is a great number in comparison to +3

So this is what I am putting in...
KC +16
BUF +16
DEN +17
DAL +4
GL

BC36,

Yeah, I just couldnt bring myself to play ont he MIA game either way...  I think that it should be a good game to watch tho...

I know chasing is a bad sign/practice, but I did not do well in college today and I am thinking about putting up another teaser maybe a 6-7 pointer...  I was asking about it in lippsman's thread... would be interested to see your thoughts on that with your recent success.

I'm thinking about a 8 pt 3 teaser with Dallas,NYG, and Washington.

2 units to win 2.2

Is there anyway any of these home team loses? Arizona and San Francisco are using backup qbs. The only possible upset I see is Vikings. If Peterson is able to run like he did in Chicago then it might happen.