Atlanta Falcons +1 Makes perfect sense since Atlanta was blasted by Carolina 30-0. Now face Washington who just blew out Las Vegas by 17.
Las Vegas -1 Fresh off being blown out by Washington, I am certain that bettors are standing in line to bet LV. Now they face the Bears who just dismantled Dallas.
KC +2 1/2 On this one I have serious questions about that Ravens' D. I trust Reid, Spags, and Mahomes more than I do Baltimore's brain trust. BOL to all...the holidays are right around the corner.
There's no such thing as "hate speech" only those that hate free speech.
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To remove first post, remove entire topic.
Season Record 4-5
With a little help from my friends on Covers:
Atlanta Falcons +1 Makes perfect sense since Atlanta was blasted by Carolina 30-0. Now face Washington who just blew out Las Vegas by 17.
Las Vegas -1 Fresh off being blown out by Washington, I am certain that bettors are standing in line to bet LV. Now they face the Bears who just dismantled Dallas.
KC +2 1/2 On this one I have serious questions about that Ravens' D. I trust Reid, Spags, and Mahomes more than I do Baltimore's brain trust. BOL to all...the holidays are right around the corner.
I don't get the sense he's saying they're trying to fool anyone, rather the lines differ from what may have been anticipated. I do know the books power rankings differ vastly from what most see on espn though.
@Buffalobob89074
The KC one has me intrigued as they're not a bad team just held to a higher perceptual standard based on past performance.
Don't let the book set the number
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I don't get the sense he's saying they're trying to fool anyone, rather the lines differ from what may have been anticipated. I do know the books power rankings differ vastly from what most see on espn though.
@Buffalobob89074
The KC one has me intrigued as they're not a bad team just held to a higher perceptual standard based on past performance.
I have a different view than you do of how lines are made. I used to listen to a great radio show out of Vegas called 'Behind The Bets'/Chad Millman and a season long guest on the show was a famous race and sportsbook manager. The show was filled with intriguing information and many great stories.
I won't go into a long write-up on his theories of how he set opening lines, but his opinion differs dramatically from the standard theory, which is the one that you presented. I choose to believe him.
There's no such thing as "hate speech" only those that hate free speech.
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@the1toturn2
I have a different view than you do of how lines are made. I used to listen to a great radio show out of Vegas called 'Behind The Bets'/Chad Millman and a season long guest on the show was a famous race and sportsbook manager. The show was filled with intriguing information and many great stories.
I won't go into a long write-up on his theories of how he set opening lines, but his opinion differs dramatically from the standard theory, which is the one that you presented. I choose to believe him.
The raiders line isnt fishy at all in my opinion. It's basically a coin flip game where theres really no HFA between 2 equally mediocre teams, although the Bears have a much better offense and I think the Vegas defense may be a bit better. But I agree that Vegas would be the side I'd go with.
The Atlanta line was a bit different than what I had which was Washington laying 3 or 3.5. I would lean Atlanta as well.
KC line is exactly what I had as well and would lean KC at home in a close game.
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The raiders line isnt fishy at all in my opinion. It's basically a coin flip game where theres really no HFA between 2 equally mediocre teams, although the Bears have a much better offense and I think the Vegas defense may be a bit better. But I agree that Vegas would be the side I'd go with.
The Atlanta line was a bit different than what I had which was Washington laying 3 or 3.5. I would lean Atlanta as well.
KC line is exactly what I had as well and would lean KC at home in a close game.
LAST WK ON COVERS WHEN LINES POSTED ATLANTA WAS 2- I JUMPED ON IT ON THE COVERS GAME BUT I BET CAROLINA BECAUSE OF THE 5 FG TREND WHERE DID ATL 2- COME FROM KNOWING ALL MONEY WOULD JUMP ON ATL.
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LAST WK ON COVERS WHEN LINES POSTED ATLANTA WAS 2- I JUMPED ON IT ON THE COVERS GAME BUT I BET CAROLINA BECAUSE OF THE 5 FG TREND WHERE DID ATL 2- COME FROM KNOWING ALL MONEY WOULD JUMP ON ATL.
Love your thoughts Bob. I do believe the books also use the art of perception/deception to make their lines in addition to the power rating. Well at least the few bookmakers that are skilled at making lines. I say it's bullshit that books only care about the vig and try to draw 50/50 action on both sides. Sure, they can make guaranteed money that way but profit margin could be higher if they take a few position on some games, usually the more popular games that they know they have an edge on. Books can get a little greedy and gamble too. Also the respected money influences the early lines as well.
That being said, I was expecting the Ravens to be -1 or maybe even PK em after their latest debacle plus the Madubuike injury and Mahome's history of owning Lamar. Don't books know that giving Mahomes dog money is a recipe for disaster unless they are certain Ravens bounce back this week.
Mahomes +122 ml seems like a no brainer for all the Swifties and Gen Z bettors out there
Sip on that plus money honey!
1
Love your thoughts Bob. I do believe the books also use the art of perception/deception to make their lines in addition to the power rating. Well at least the few bookmakers that are skilled at making lines. I say it's bullshit that books only care about the vig and try to draw 50/50 action on both sides. Sure, they can make guaranteed money that way but profit margin could be higher if they take a few position on some games, usually the more popular games that they know they have an edge on. Books can get a little greedy and gamble too. Also the respected money influences the early lines as well.
That being said, I was expecting the Ravens to be -1 or maybe even PK em after their latest debacle plus the Madubuike injury and Mahome's history of owning Lamar. Don't books know that giving Mahomes dog money is a recipe for disaster unless they are certain Ravens bounce back this week.
Mahomes +122 ml seems like a no brainer for all the Swifties and Gen Z bettors out there
I say it's bullshit that books only care about the vig and try to draw 50/50 action on both sides. Sure, they can make guaranteed money that way but profit margin could be higher if they take a few position on some games
One Million Times Accurate
I do believe the books also use the art of perception/deception
Priced Accordingly. No way fidget spinners should be $20.
Don't let the book set the number
0
@Digitalkarma
I say it's bullshit that books only care about the vig and try to draw 50/50 action on both sides. Sure, they can make guaranteed money that way but profit margin could be higher if they take a few position on some games
One Million Times Accurate
I do believe the books also use the art of perception/deception
Priced Accordingly. No way fidget spinners should be $20.
Loved your write-up and totally agree. At the core of line-making especially in high profile games is 'public perception' and I love the phrase you used 'perception/deception'. No doubt I will probably use your phrase going forward.
The power of 'recency bias' is so strong it even affects those who are aware of it. I have been led down that path many times.
Aside from the Bills, I also follow the Ravens and Lions. These teams are not boring, not like staring at an oil painting for 60 minutes. The troubling thing about the Ravens is their 4th quarter defense and their inability to close out games. The Ravens score so quickly their D doesn't get a chance to recover. I wonder if Dean Pees still on the staff? Last year he joined them in October and the Raven D became stout. Best of luck DK and onward to victory.
I still think the Ravens will win the AFC North going away and that the Steelers will falter sooner than later. Aaron Rodgers can take just so many hits on that 40+ body before he is sidelined. Though not sacked versus the Patriots, he was bludgeoned a number of times. This game in Dublin versus the Vikings will be a real test for the Steelers. The brain trust of Tomlin and Smith versus Brian Flores and Kevin O'.
There's no such thing as "hate speech" only those that hate free speech.
0
@Digitalkarma
Loved your write-up and totally agree. At the core of line-making especially in high profile games is 'public perception' and I love the phrase you used 'perception/deception'. No doubt I will probably use your phrase going forward.
The power of 'recency bias' is so strong it even affects those who are aware of it. I have been led down that path many times.
Aside from the Bills, I also follow the Ravens and Lions. These teams are not boring, not like staring at an oil painting for 60 minutes. The troubling thing about the Ravens is their 4th quarter defense and their inability to close out games. The Ravens score so quickly their D doesn't get a chance to recover. I wonder if Dean Pees still on the staff? Last year he joined them in October and the Raven D became stout. Best of luck DK and onward to victory.
I still think the Ravens will win the AFC North going away and that the Steelers will falter sooner than later. Aaron Rodgers can take just so many hits on that 40+ body before he is sidelined. Though not sacked versus the Patriots, he was bludgeoned a number of times. This game in Dublin versus the Vikings will be a real test for the Steelers. The brain trust of Tomlin and Smith versus Brian Flores and Kevin O'.
@Yanasaur Hmm sounds right BOL. @usarmy69-71 Nice move and BOL @usikbasterd Raiders were blown out and now they face a team that had a blowout victory and no, nobody is standing in line to bet them. @unplucked_gem Yep, we are believers and BOL @kidd22 Back at you. @justliketoplay We must pray for his enlightenment.
'
Mt enlightenment? you mean joining the Tin Foil hat brigade? Never going to happen and he stole my emoji combination Tell me where I can get archives of the radio broadcast you mentioned I am more than willing to listen to it
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Quote Originally Posted by Buffalobob89074:
@Yanasaur Hmm sounds right BOL. @usarmy69-71 Nice move and BOL @usikbasterd Raiders were blown out and now they face a team that had a blowout victory and no, nobody is standing in line to bet them. @unplucked_gem Yep, we are believers and BOL @kidd22 Back at you. @justliketoplay We must pray for his enlightenment.
'
Mt enlightenment? you mean joining the Tin Foil hat brigade? Never going to happen and he stole my emoji combination Tell me where I can get archives of the radio broadcast you mentioned I am more than willing to listen to it
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