Posted:
#1
""Good afternoon everybody and welcome to Week 2's edition of the SUCKER
BET, as always brought to you by the kind folks at Tootsie Pop! For those of you who are unfamiliar
with the SUCKER BET, each week I identify the games where the public
seems to be heavily favoring one side. Typically there are 3 or 4
choices each week. From those games, I choose one unpopular pick as
the SUCKER BET. Last week was a tough week for the SUCKER BET as the backdoor cover was taken away by a late Stafford INT and the Saints rolled as many thought they would. Of the 6 games last week where the public was more than 60% favoring one side, the Broncos were the only unpopular pick to cover. This week is another tough call to make but I'm taking the Texans +7 in Tennessee. This line has been sitting at 6.5-7 since it opened which is something I like to see. The Titans are coming off a tough OT loss vs. the Steelers and everyone in the country watched them play well as the covered ATS. Conversely, the Texans got beat up badly by the Jets. The Texans have some key players coming back off injury none more important than WR Kevin Walter. Steve Slaton had 2 big games vs. the Titans last season. Houston had the 4th best passing offense last season (3rd overall). Texans are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as an underdog, 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game, 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a road underdog and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 vs. AFC South. The underdog in this matchup is 8-3 ATS in their last 11 meetings. I think the Texans defense will be well-prepared as the Titans run a very similar zone offense as the Texans offense. There you have it, give me the Texans +7 in this tough divisonal matchup. Good luck to everyone this weekend and we'll see you next week for Week 2's SUCKER BET brought to you by Tootsie Pop!"0
I like the write up and the stats you present. I will be tailing you on this one. 
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