Week 18…............................NFL 2022

Titans +6.5 (-115) over Jags --- 2.3 units

Jags off 4 SU & ATS wins and off 2 big wins with on being a big blowout win. Jags also off a Bator method 3 out of 4.

Jags due some regression in this spot, Titans should be in position to win SU much like Raiders are last week VS 9ers.

Speaking of Raiders I see many people backing the Stidham led team after last week. We must remember 9ers in a regression spot, that game was more about 9ers regressing then Stidham led Raiders being any kind and of good team.

I know KC hasn't been covering larger lines but don't be surprised if they do in this spot, I'll pass either way but I wouldn't back Raiders just because of last week.

Lions +5 over Packers --- 1.1 units 

Pack off 4SU & ATS wins and off a big blowout win over Vikings.

Interesting thing about that big blowout win is Vikes who've been outplayed in many indicators this season actually outplayed the Packers in many indicators. 

Gained more yards, higher ave per play.

Packers not all that good despite appearing to be getting their game together before playoffs .

Rodgers QBPR in those wins not all that impressive. If Pack win here will likely fade them in Playoffs.

Another interesting thing here is kind of crazy, think about this, if Seahawks win they knock the Lions out of playoffs but then Seahawks need Lions to beat Packers to get in.

So Lions would need to help the very team knocked them out of playoffs.

Crazy how that would work out if Seahawks win.

Looking at KC who could be the no. 1 seed although they play AFC title game on a neutral field, they don't look like a no. 1 seed. Very weak defense, I can't see this team making the SB.

They are 20th in pts given up and 12th in yards, 12th in yards is not overly bad but not all that good either. Defensive Passer Rating is 96.5, not good at all, below ave, rarely can a top seed win SB with a below ave Defensive PR.

Mahomes has a good INT rate at 1.9% but the defense only gets INT's at 1.7% = (-.2%)

And the defense in the red zone is terrible, they give up a TD 69.2% of opp red zone drives, that'd be dead last in the league.

With Mahomes magic the offense ranks 3rd at 68.7%  but defense giving up 69.2 = (-.5%), once again being outplayed by the opp because of poor defense. 

They are 7-3 in close 1 score games and the kiss of death having a number of close 1 score games over teams with a losing record, yikkers !!!

@theclaw

 great insight as usual 

Does the claw refer to the popular putting grip used in golf?

Good Luck today. Enjoy your write ups.

GL @theclaw

 Great info mah man

After last weeks games............................ POWER RATING I.....

Eagles 10.66

9ers 9.71

using Hurts and Purdy's passing stats

POWER RATING II.....................

9ers 10.15

Eagles 9.43

using all games

Eagles 11.6

9ers 11.19 

using only Hurts games and throwing out 9ers 1st game with Lance a loss to Bears since Lance is not that good a QB at this point, much like Minshew. So throwing out both those QB's games can be warranted. But using the defenses for all games. I think with Hurts, Eagles defense would be even better as he helps control the ball with run, is a better passer and doesn't turn it over like Minshew did. Where-as I don't think 9ers defense would benefit as much as the Eagles with Hurts which this info is not included in the ratings but something to keep in mind.

Hurts is very important in PR II because he is 2cd leading rusher and rushing counts more in PR II. Purdy hasn't played enough games to just use his games, it's ok in PR I because he and Jimmy G are almost equal but can't do it in PR II. Had both not been equal in PR I there would be adjustments made.

Right now the way I see it the Eagles are still the better team with Hurts in the game assuming he is 100% or close to. 

But the big issue now is having the no. 1 ranked team be over a rating of 12 which Eagles are just a bit to much under, but I think if Hurts returns then Eagles will crush the Giants and that'd put the Eagles at 12 or better. If they can get a little closer to 12 then I'd consider that in the grey area.

The reason 12 is big is no. 1 ranked teams finishing 12 or better have a great track record of going to SB's and winning. But those no. 1 ranked under 12 have a very, very poor record of success. 

Starting in 2018 till now there has only been 1 no. 1 ranked team finish at least 12 in 1 of the 2 PR's and that was 2019 Ravens who did lose in first playoff game. With no other no. 1 ranked team 12 or better in either PR, for some reason the past 4 years saw not many very good, well-balanced teams, in fact we had by far the weakest no. 1 team ever starting in 2018 which I quess looking back may have been a sign of things to come.

I suppose Covid could be responsible for a couple of those years but not this year, so it's going to be very interesting to see if Eagles or 9ers can get to 12 or better this weekend. They are the only 2 teams with any realistic shot to do it. 

I went back to 2010 and broke-down all SB's that didn't have a surprise team from WC round, 10 SB's. I used the 4 Areas of QBPR, comp %, TD %, INT % and ave per pass plus sack %. So 5 indicators. I'll list the records in the same order for each.

the order is INT%, TD %, comp %, ave per pass, sack rate

SU record of all 5 indicators measuring the margin, off - def = margin ..... 7-3, 8-2, 4-5, 1-8, 7-3...... ATS records are almost the same, might vary by 1 game. Worst record is ave per pass. Some had ties that's why only 9 games.

the better off...............3-6, 5-5, 3-6, 1-9, 9-1 ...... better off only did well in sack %, QB's that don't get sacked

better def .................7-3, 7-3, 7-2, 5-3, 6-4 ........... as we can see def has the better record in every indicator but sack %.

here's where it gets good............................. if we take a team better by a certain amount on defense and better by a certain amount in margin, each indicator has a certain amount.........

records ......... in the same order....... 5-1, 5-0, 4-1, 1-2, 6-0 ...........wow, pretty spectacular there in every indicator but ave per pass.

This is in SB's, I think we might see a similar results in NFC & AFC TITLE games, hopefully I get around to doing those games.

If we were to compare Eagles with the 9ers, Eagles better margin in 4 of 5 . Eagles better defense in 4 of the 5. Eagles would qualify in 2 indicators with 9ers qualifying in 1 indicator of meeting def by certain amount and margin by certain amount.

The best, more consistent team might just make itself know tommorrow with a huge effort.

Purdy did have a 121 QBPR in games he started, saw that online, he did regress last week, I'd expect him more to regress again this week as 121 if played over the entire season would be the 2cd best all-time, from a rookie in his first few starts ? Let's be real people. He does have a stacked team but let's slow down a bit.  I'm still seeing so many youtube stories on 9ers unbeatable to Purdy the greatest young QB talent in history. 

I just think it is more likely Eagles regress by playing back to their standard early in season and Purdy and 9ers regress back to reality.................................

Opps there it is ...... Stidham when not playing a team in regression. Down 24-3 at half.

Can he bring Raiders back to get a cover ? He'll need to win 2cd half by 2 scores.

Looks like Hurts is a go. Line moves to -16, bummer, I was looking to grab the -14 but didn't get around to it and then today line was -14.5 and Then was waiting to try and get the -14 but never saw it 

Great insight on the raider game .. GL with you plays 

Yep.  TheClaw nailed the KC-LV game.

I agree with TC and look to fade KC in the playoffs (especially at home), and this solid win against LV could result in an even juicier line.

What happened to your profile Pic? You used to be The Baron :) 

@DogbiteWilliams

 good point 

Exactly, public will buy into KC more now off a big blowout win ...............

Cincy is the only team that can beat KC period! Buffalo will not beat them w/o Von Miller! 

Sat ...... 1-0 ATS, won 2 units

Be Nice to get another win before playoffs start.

I see people saying to wait for Seahawks game before backing Lions, even seen pro's saying this on YouTube.

The issue I see with this is you may have to make a judgement call and if you are wrong you end up with a worse line, not a better one.

What happens if Seahawks down by 10 or 14 at half, do you back Lions then or wait ?

Some might decide to back Lions driving the line down then what happens if Seahawks come back ?

Do people back Packers driving the line up ?

When will you pull the trigger ? Could very well be confusing on what to do.

There could be many waiting so lots of money on the sides lines waiting to come in, so you open yourself up to make a bad judgement call based on how the game is going, no thanks for me, I'll take the line as the book put out the number I trust Packers due regression won't cover based on the ?? ne books put out 

Cincy pissed!  Going to Superbowl!

;

@theclaw

 I agree I like the Detroit line as is. But a strange twist of events happens if Seattle wins. Not only do they knock Detroit out of the playoffs but they need Detroit to win to get into the playoffs. So enemy one second then best friend after. Will be interesting to see how Detroit reacts in Seattle wins. My thought is all they would care would be knocking out a hated division rival out of the playoffs take the points. Also Detroit is 9-2 ATS last 11 against GB 

@theclaw

 You still think Detroit has motivation now that they are out?

@theclaw

 nice hit on the Lions