Week 16 Discussion - Only adults please

Finally got some time to participate during the week. Wish you all good holidays!

TNF: Chargers@Raiders

Leaning Chargers getting five points here and might just lock it in today. The Raiders have been successful at the beginning of the season because Derek Carr had excellent protection and was airing it out at will. Since C Rodney Hudson is out, Carr was 66/124 53% and got sacked 10 times for a loss of 81 yards which equals 4.9 NYPPA in their L3 games. This is an abdysmal number and they have been scoring just 18.3 PPG over that span. Chargers' OL is getting healthy. If King Dunlap progresses this week, Rivers will have time in the pocket and pick the Raiders' secondary apart. They scored 3 points apiece against DEN & KC but they had a terrible matchup against those front sevens. It's a different story against the Raiders. On the other side the SD defense played extremely well in their L3, allowing 10, 10 & 14 offensive points along with a garbage time TD against the Dolphins. Matchup and current form points towards the Chargers who should win this game straight up.


MNF: Bengals@Broncos

I love the Bengals in this spot. They have the best recipe against a strong Broncos pass rush: an elite OL. I like McCarron and I give him the edge as a game manager behind a great OL rather than Osweiler behind an average OL against an improved Bengals' pass rush in 2015. I don't believe in Osweiler and he just cannot close games. Over his career he averages 71% completions during the first half and just 51% during the second. In their L2, the Broncos scored ZERO points in the second halves. It seems like teams can adjust to his play very well. Tyler Eifert might be back as well as George Iloka. Eifert gives McCarron a huge advantage for short to intermediate throws which can be very important against the Broncos' pass rush. The Bengals defense should really be enough to contain Osweiler. Some people will say "McCarron needed turnovers to score at San Francisco" - let's be honest here. I don't know what it is but the Niners have held teams to 15.8 PPG before the Bengals game. GB, SEA, ARI - no one scored more than 20 there. He still managed the game and led them to a win. This isn't going to be a great Football game but McCarron has more staff to win with than Osweiler and the matchup favors the Bengals IMO.

More later. Let's discuss some games

Ouch leaning other sides in both games, after i do my weekly homework, i will come back with my thoughts. 

Can I come in Suuma... Gl this week Bro

Cincinnati's D is the key factor in this situation. They're on the brink of having one of their best "points against" seasons, since 1978. With McCarron at the helm, they realize they must keep the game flow in check, allowing the newbie to be the game manager, not the all-star hero. They want to make it easier for McCarron. As we saw this week against the Niners, what a better way to do so by setting him up with 3 short drive attempts, resulting in 3 TD's. 

Cannot wait !

@vankiep: sure, you are not trolling haha.

Great insight, thank you. I agree!

I get your point but why exactly is it a massive letdown spot? Rivers is proud and he is pissed off the bad season. The Chargers have something to prove and they are on revenge. It's still a divisional game on TNF. I guess Rivers wants to prove that the injuries on OL were a lot of the reasons of why the Chargers struggled this season.

GL to you

I believe Carr and his receiving corps have to step it up. Quit dropping the ball!

Thanks. I guess that letdown is the one pdub was referring to.

like em both. GL Suuma  

Suuma what are your thoughts on Car/Atl and Kc/Cle?  

I have initial leans on 2 games.

I like the Vikings minus whatever over the Giants because I think the G-men will be flat after last week's game......rallying from a 4 TD deficit to tie the game, then losing on a last minute FG.    Also, the Giants D is as bad as the Bears D, so Teddy B should have another good game, like he had last week vs Bears

I also like the Broncos over the Bengals.   Cincy is heading west for the 2nd straight week, to play in a much more hostile environment than they faced in SFO.    AJ McCarron's 2nd NFL start will be against one of the league's most ferocious defenses ( #1 in opponent yards allowed per game ) .  I see the Broncos winning a low-scoring game, 20-13 or something similar to that

BOL

The Chargers may have only allowed 10, 10, and 14 points the last three games, but for two of those games, they were only able to put up 3 points in each. 

I am on Denver... It's going to be a big stage for AJ.. As I stated in a brief write up, playing at BAMA is about as close to an NFL, prime time, national stage, in the college ranks, but this is the NFL, on the road, with a lot at stake, against the top D in the league. I like AJ and the bengals, so I'm not down on them, just think Denver steps it up here. Coming off that loss as well. One of my favorite plays this year was a few weeks back with CINCY plus points at Zona on Sunday night, but again, this is a BIG spot for a QB on his second NFL start... GL this week 

Marvin Lewis and his Cincinnati Bungals on prime time...lol....A.J. Green is so freaking soft it's laughable...Denver let that game get away from them but c'mon...the Steelers are the only team in the AFC standing between New England and another trip to the Super bowl...this game is easy, don't overthink it....has everybody forgotten the Bengals on another MNF game recently?...Of course haven't... they were laying 10.5 (huge lumber) and lost outright to the Texans!....this is a miserable spot for a pea heart team like the Bungals...Forget about it!!!!

SF gave up 255 (Sea) / 170 (Chi) / 230 (Cle) rushing yds in 3 of 4 games before Cinci, yet Cinci only able to put up 68 yds in 36 attempts.  Den rush D is #1 so lots of pressure on AJ to produce.  Though Den lost last 2 games, they did have big leads (-12 yds 1H for Oak) so think they bounce back here + AJ on road against one of better HF-adv team, B2B West Coast trip too.

GL!

Crazy fact - If Den loses to Cinci, they would miss play-off entirely if Pitts (@ Bal, @ Cle), KC (Cle, Oak) and NYJ (NE, @Buf) wins out.  I see Pitts and KC wins out.  NE hurting again and Buf w/o McCoy and how much motivation left after high expectation for yr.

I think Den give max effort here.

gmitran...nice posts...great insight..A.J. Green will be awol in this game in my opinion..Tyler...rookie a bit banged up...he heard tippy toes against the Texans in that Monday night game I referred to(he dropped 3 bread basket catches in that game)...good luck at Mile High...I see a lot of turn overs created by the home side....24-6 kind of a game.....lot's of side line shots of the red rifle (sorry bb-gun..lol)....enjoy this one my friends..stay thirsty

Statistically, Oakland has the best pass protection in the league. San Diego's pass rush is ranked #26 of 32 teams, even though their overall pass defense is #12. Give Carr time in the pocket, and he'll hit his marks. Oakland is growing into the future, Diego is looking at LA. Maybe Danny Woodhead scores 3 TDs again. Maybe not. Probably not. Has anyone else scored for that team in the past 5 games? Stevie Johnson? Yeah, right. Chargers look great. Not.

I'm a die hard Bolts fan and love Rivers..toughest QB in the league...ok maybe Big Ben...this line reeks( I had it at 3 tops)..I think the Chargers laid it on the line last week against a team that has completely given up and a lame duck coach (Campbell)...Tannehill might be a Bill next year..you heard it first here

Raiders should cover pretty easy here based on the really fishy line put out (remember Vegas took it on the chin last week and this line is screaming San Diego money..all the San Diego money will be greatly appreciated by the house...dogs will rule the day (mostly) on Sunday but not in this game guys

I like the Chargers pick and don't see a "letdown" game here. I think Rivers is going to have a "throw 50 times" kind of game here where they have Woodhead out more on 1st/2nd down and find ways to get him the ball in space largely abandoning the run and rely on short passes. By spreading the defense (3/4 receivers sets) and relying on those short passes, I actually think it will open up the running game (delayed draws up the middle, and inside runs AFTER forcing the Raiders to adjust by spreading out). SD defense has actually been quite impressive even in losses lately and I think that continues here. Just hoping Khalil Mack doesn't have another 5 sack day like a couple weeks back. Not saying SD for sure wins straight up (wouldn't bet them ML even though they very well could win SU, but I think they keep it within a field goal)

I actually am leaning the other way on the Denver game as I think McCarron will be outmatched by Denver's defense. Denver will be playing for a first round bye (if they win their next 2 and CIN wins their last game, DEN would finish 2nd in the AFC by virtue of beating CIN in the head to head right?). I know CIN is also playing for a first round bye so I'm not approaching this from a motivational angle, but I do think that DEN has an edge being at home. I think CIN will be out of sync on offense due to McCarron being inexperienced and unable to audible his way out of unfavorable alignments/plays ( the crowd for DEN will make it very difficult on 3rd downs especially). If DEN is able to put up any points on offense, AJ is going to be forced to be more than a game manager and I don't think it goes well. I will be teasing DEN to +3.5 and the Under to 47.5. Anyone else notice the team totals numbers being a bit weird on this game? CIN is set as o/u 16.5 and DEN is set as o/u 22.5 which is 6 points apart with a game spread of only 3.5 and a total of 40.5? Shouldn't the totals line up with the spread a little more?

I would put my behind on the Raiders if I had an behind left. 

Cinci@Denver

Wow didn't expect such a thread

Just insightful comments, thanks fellas! Will re-read again and try to answer/discuss if I see things different or want to give a controversial opinion.