****Week 14 Card Plays and WriteUps****

Adding

Da Bears -6 Over Jax

- Well I was foolish enough to bet on Jax on Monday night.  Foolish enough to lay scratch on a team that has been trucked 5 out of 6 games and checks in at a cash burning 3-9 ATS so far this year.  Watching the game, and their tilt vs Minny the week before, it appears that the Jags have mailed this season in.  Quit.  Picking up checks and playing for a lame duck coach.

- Jax has lost their last 3 by more than 10 points in each game.  The Bears also took an ass beating last week but that game was deceiving as there was an enormous momentum swing in the second quarter.  Just about to go up 14-3, which would have squashed the Vikes and forced them to play in come from behind mode, the brilliant Lovie Smith decided to run it yet again into the teeth of the Williams wall on 4th down, getting stuffed an leading to a 99 yard TD pass to Berrian which was one of the fluke plays and largest momentum swings in NFL history.  Orton had to play from behind the rest of the way against a jacked up crowd and defense ready to Tee off.  In short, I'm not putting alot of stock in the Bears last game but I am putting stock In Jax's performance recently.

- Chicago's biggest problem this year at home has been stopping the pass, as they are allowing 280 yards per game through the air in Soldier.  Luckily, the Jags rank in the lower quarter of the NFL in passing yards, barely eclipsing 200 yards per game.  Everyone knows the Jags strength is running the ball, and although Chicago got ran over by Peterson last week they are only surrendering 75 yards per game on the ground at home.  Jax is dead without the ability to run and I don't see them gashing Chicago, with a patchwork o-line and a team that has pretty much quit.

- On defense the Jags lost their best player in Mathis, a ball-hawking elite corner.  This means the only player in their secondary with a decent NFL pedigree is Reggie Nelson, which means that the Bears greatest weakness in throwing the ball should not be as prevelant versus a weakend secondary.  The days of the Jags being a run stopping juggernaut ended the day Stroud left town, so Forte should have success on the ground setting up play action for Orton.

The Bottom line is the Bears need this game badly, and the Jags, for all intensive purposes, have mailed it in.  They are officially eliminated from playoff contention and Chicago is only one game back of the VIkings, who should have a relatively easy victory vs the Lions this week.  We also see a Florida team travelling North in the cold, and without the ability to smash the ball on the ground they could be in big trouble versus and angry defense.

Bears 27-17

GL

Adding

New Orleans -3 Over the ATL

- Intriguing divisonal matchup.  Before I get into it let me state I think Matt Ryan is the real deal.  ATL is 8-4, a record that I thought would be reversed at a minimum at this point in the season.  They are rolling along winning 4 out of their last 5, with the only loss being to Denver who when they show up can still play with anyone.  They also went into a tough environment and absolutely owned San Diego last week, so by no means is this a fade of the ATL.

- I am basing my play on three factors.

1. The Saints are absolute demons at home this year, going 4-1 ATS and putting up over 33 points per game.  ATL's defense played strong last week but their secondary has been lit up by strong teams this year, and Brees at home is pretty much a guarenteed 300 yards an 2 TDs, minimum.  Bush has a game under his belt and the rust should be off.  Losing Deuce is no big deal as he has lost two steps from his prime anyway, and Pierre Thomas has filled in admirably.  Atlanta's defense has played better than expected but I don't see them playing well enough to contain Brees enough to lead to a victory, especially coming off a West Coast road trip.  In short, its almost too much to ask to expect them to play well enough to contain a qb who is having a Marino like season.

2. The question with the Saints is whether their defense shows up, as it is less than stellar.  The Saints D clearly plays better at home, giving up over a touchdown less at home than they do on the road.  They also give up over 60 yards less in their friendly confines, and seem to feed off the crowd well and use their only advantage, speed, playing on turf.  Will Smith being suspended is a small blow but this defense seems to come out clearly jacked up at home and all they have to do is play average as their offense seems to take care of the rest.

3. The third and final factor is this is both a revenge and complete desperation spot for New Orleans.  A loss and its curtains on the season.   It should be noted that they have little chance anyway but until they are eliminated I will give them the edge in motivation.  They played an embarrasingly bad game in the ATL a few weeks back, and I believe it is a redemption spot.  ATL has something to play for as well and I'm not exactly expecting them to mail it in, but their offense is only averaging 17 points per game on the road, which is not nearly enough to keep pace with Brees on a mission.  As long as NO's D plays at least a competent game the Aints should walk away with at least a TD victory.

Just keep in mind that Jacksonville is getting less than 20% of the votes and the line has moved from 7 to 6.5.

Where are the Colts???

Thanks fellas.  Despite going 9-2 with the teaser included I didn't win as much as I wouldve liked because I absolutely unloaded on Green Bay, more than I even posted here.  I still have to learn money management I guess. .

Goes to show that greed in the end is not good.

GL tonight guys.

Also it was very painful to watch my Cowboys CHOKE like that.  I had it capped right but it brought me zero pleasure.  They played like men for three quarters, I guess it was too much to ask for a full game.