I have had two good weeks in a row and I feel like I am starting to see things more clearly in the NFL. Went 4-1 last week and I look forward to this week. Being the degenerate that I am, I will try to make a case for betting on tonight's game. If this game was played on Sunday, I would definitely pass on this game. A part of my handicapping is looking for line value. I believe that the linesmakers try to prey on public perception and try to make the public go the wrong way when making a wager. I have friends who bet on the same teams every week no matter what the line is because that team is a public darling. One example is I have heard all season that the San Diego Chargers are ready to start winning. They always start slow they always start winning in November...blah, blah, blah. My friends keep betting the Chargers because they think this team is like other Chargers teams and they just aren't. Plus, the linesmakers keep making them favorites and the public keeps backing them!!! Last week if you read my writeup, you will see that I backed Denver because I just can't see the Chargers being favored over anyone right now...and, Denver won straight up!
Philly also started the season as one of those public darlings...THE DREAM TEAM...and, the linesmakers made them favs in all of their games until the last two. Two games ago they were 6 point underdogs to the Giants and this was finally the first game all year that you got good line value backing the Eagles. If you look at my Week 11 thread, you will see I backed the Eagles that week...and, the Eagles won. Well, the next game the linemakers screw with the public again by making the Eagles a short underdog to one of the better teams in the league. They tried to make the Eagles look like they had a chance in this game and the Patriots smoked them. Now on a short week, the Eagles go on the road after getting soundly beaten at home and they now play the lowly Seattle Seahawks. Bam!! The linesmakers make them a favorite. I say the public looks at this game and says "The Eagles will smoke the Seahawks." Well, Eagles backers have now lost any line value they had two weeks ago against the Giants. And, people will still back Philly.
The Seahawks are 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 games. This makes me think that the linesmakers are undervaluing this team. They have already beaten the Giants and Balt this year and were beating the Redskins last week 17-7 until they gave up a couple of big plays and let Wash score 16 unanswered points in the fourth quarter. The Seahawks have been improving and I see them playing competitively to the end of the season. The Eagles have a lot of their playmakers out for this game or not playing at 100%. Seattle's defense has been playing decent football and I just can't see backing Philly as a favorite on the road against Seattle this week.
I have had two good weeks in a row and I feel like I am starting to see things more clearly in the NFL. Went 4-1 last week and I look forward to this week. Being the degenerate that I am, I will try to make a case for betting on tonight's game. If this game was played on Sunday, I would definitely pass on this game. A part of my handicapping is looking for line value. I believe that the linesmakers try to prey on public perception and try to make the public go the wrong way when making a wager. I have friends who bet on the same teams every week no matter what the line is because that team is a public darling. One example is I have heard all season that the San Diego Chargers are ready to start winning. They always start slow they always start winning in November...blah, blah, blah. My friends keep betting the Chargers because they think this team is like other Chargers teams and they just aren't. Plus, the linesmakers keep making them favorites and the public keeps backing them!!! Last week if you read my writeup, you will see that I backed Denver because I just can't see the Chargers being favored over anyone right now...and, Denver won straight up!
Philly also started the season as one of those public darlings...THE DREAM TEAM...and, the linesmakers made them favs in all of their games until the last two. Two games ago they were 6 point underdogs to the Giants and this was finally the first game all year that you got good line value backing the Eagles. If you look at my Week 11 thread, you will see I backed the Eagles that week...and, the Eagles won. Well, the next game the linemakers screw with the public again by making the Eagles a short underdog to one of the better teams in the league. They tried to make the Eagles look like they had a chance in this game and the Patriots smoked them. Now on a short week, the Eagles go on the road after getting soundly beaten at home and they now play the lowly Seattle Seahawks. Bam!! The linesmakers make them a favorite. I say the public looks at this game and says "The Eagles will smoke the Seahawks." Well, Eagles backers have now lost any line value they had two weeks ago against the Giants. And, people will still back Philly.
The Seahawks are 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 games. This makes me think that the linesmakers are undervaluing this team. They have already beaten the Giants and Balt this year and were beating the Redskins last week 17-7 until they gave up a couple of big plays and let Wash score 16 unanswered points in the fourth quarter. The Seahawks have been improving and I see them playing competitively to the end of the season. The Eagles have a lot of their playmakers out for this game or not playing at 100%. Seattle's defense has been playing decent football and I just can't see backing Philly as a favorite on the road against Seattle this week.
LOL!! You said it. I started posting here when I had my own mortgage broker shop and then things fell apart. Don't know how to change my posting name so, I will stay MortgageMan. I am now a BlackJack dealer in a casino. Actually love the Casino business and wish I would have started in this business sooner.
LOL!! You said it. I started posting here when I had my own mortgage broker shop and then things fell apart. Don't know how to change my posting name so, I will stay MortgageMan. I am now a BlackJack dealer in a casino. Actually love the Casino business and wish I would have started in this business sooner.
This week 1-0 and YTD 10-3-1. I feel pretty confident in this Sunday’s picks so here they are:
Tenn +1I had posted in another thread here about public perception and this game has what I look for in going against public perception. For whatever reason, Tenn has been playing under the radar this year. You never hear any of the talking heads on TV talking about this team. But, they are 6-5 SU & ATS. They are still in the hunt for their division title and with the injuries on Houston, Tenn just needs to keep playing solid football and they have a good chance to make the playoffs. Hasselback has been playing solid ball and now with Chris Johnson starting to run the way we know he can, it can only help the passing game. Buffalo’s defense is average at best and I see Tenn being able to move the ball methodically down the field. In the last 3 games Johnson has rushed for more than 100 yards in 2 of those games. The one game he was stymied in was against Atlanta and the Falcons are 2nd in the League against the rush. Buffalo is ranked 21st in rushing yards allowed and they allow teams to convert 25.5% of third downs which is 4th worst in the league. As far as the Titans defense is concerned, they rank 11th in rushing yards allowed and with Fred Jackson gone for the year, Buffalo will have a hard time moving the ball. I see a lot of 3rd and long situations for Fitzpatrick. Tenn ranks 13th in passing yards allowed and 15th in Defensive Passer Rating. Fitz will be able to convert some of these situations but, I see the Titans coming up with some important stops. As far as Buffalo’s offense is concerned, it started of strong at the beginning of the season and the team went 5-2 SU & 4-2-1 ATS. Since then, they are 0-4 SU & 1-3 ATS. They have been losing players to injury every week and this team is not the team it started out the season with. In their 4 game losing streak, here are the scores for Buff in those games: 11, 7, 8, & 24. I feel that we have two teams going in different directions and I feel comfortable backing Tennessee to win the game.
Chicago -7 (bought the .5 point)I backed the Bears last week (my only loss) and the game went how I thought it would except for one thing. They lost by 5 as a 3 point dog. Hanie threw 3 picks giving Oakland some short fields. But, the Bears defense came up big and Oakland had to kick 6 field goals. They only had one offensive TD. The Bears defense is playing tough football and they play a bend but don’t break style. Their Defensive Passer Rating is ranked 7th in the league. They have given up 14 TD and have 16 INT’s. They are a ball hawking pass defense and against KC’s Tyler Palko who has 0 TD’s and 6 INT’s, I see another pick or two for the Bears defense. As far as KC’s defense, they are ranked 26th in rushing yards allowed at 133.7 yards allowed. I see Forte and Barber running all over this defense. I use a Yards Per Point calculation in my capping and the Bears should have no problem scoring against the Chiefs. I also use team efficiency rankings and the Bears are ranked 9th in team efficiency and KC is ranked 29th. As long as Hanie can limit his mistakes, I don’t see how the Bears will lose at home to this Chiefs team.
Dallas -4.5There are a few rules I try to not break when betting the NFL. I don’t like giving double digits, I don’t like giving points on the road, and I don’t like to rely on a bad team to win a bet. Well, I am going against one of my rules. With the way the rest of the teams are playing in the NFC East, I think that Dallas realizes that the division title is theirs to win…or lose. Dallas is on a 4 game winning streak and now they play AZ. I see Dallas giving max effort in this game especially with the meltdown of the Eagles and the Giants playing Green Bay. If Dallas wins this game, they go up 2 games on the Giants if the Giants lose to Green Bay (which they should). Kolb is going to play in this game and his QB rating is 77.8. Romo has a QB rating of 97.5. I see the Dallas offense being able to move the ball on AZ. In the efficiency ratings I use, Dallas is ranked 13th with the Cardinals being ranked 30th. I don’t see any way that AZ beats Dallas and I feel okay giving points on the road in this game.
I will be looking over some other games and might have another play or two. For now though, I stand by these picks.
This week 1-0 and YTD 10-3-1. I feel pretty confident in this Sunday’s picks so here they are:
Tenn +1I had posted in another thread here about public perception and this game has what I look for in going against public perception. For whatever reason, Tenn has been playing under the radar this year. You never hear any of the talking heads on TV talking about this team. But, they are 6-5 SU & ATS. They are still in the hunt for their division title and with the injuries on Houston, Tenn just needs to keep playing solid football and they have a good chance to make the playoffs. Hasselback has been playing solid ball and now with Chris Johnson starting to run the way we know he can, it can only help the passing game. Buffalo’s defense is average at best and I see Tenn being able to move the ball methodically down the field. In the last 3 games Johnson has rushed for more than 100 yards in 2 of those games. The one game he was stymied in was against Atlanta and the Falcons are 2nd in the League against the rush. Buffalo is ranked 21st in rushing yards allowed and they allow teams to convert 25.5% of third downs which is 4th worst in the league. As far as the Titans defense is concerned, they rank 11th in rushing yards allowed and with Fred Jackson gone for the year, Buffalo will have a hard time moving the ball. I see a lot of 3rd and long situations for Fitzpatrick. Tenn ranks 13th in passing yards allowed and 15th in Defensive Passer Rating. Fitz will be able to convert some of these situations but, I see the Titans coming up with some important stops. As far as Buffalo’s offense is concerned, it started of strong at the beginning of the season and the team went 5-2 SU & 4-2-1 ATS. Since then, they are 0-4 SU & 1-3 ATS. They have been losing players to injury every week and this team is not the team it started out the season with. In their 4 game losing streak, here are the scores for Buff in those games: 11, 7, 8, & 24. I feel that we have two teams going in different directions and I feel comfortable backing Tennessee to win the game.
Chicago -7 (bought the .5 point)I backed the Bears last week (my only loss) and the game went how I thought it would except for one thing. They lost by 5 as a 3 point dog. Hanie threw 3 picks giving Oakland some short fields. But, the Bears defense came up big and Oakland had to kick 6 field goals. They only had one offensive TD. The Bears defense is playing tough football and they play a bend but don’t break style. Their Defensive Passer Rating is ranked 7th in the league. They have given up 14 TD and have 16 INT’s. They are a ball hawking pass defense and against KC’s Tyler Palko who has 0 TD’s and 6 INT’s, I see another pick or two for the Bears defense. As far as KC’s defense, they are ranked 26th in rushing yards allowed at 133.7 yards allowed. I see Forte and Barber running all over this defense. I use a Yards Per Point calculation in my capping and the Bears should have no problem scoring against the Chiefs. I also use team efficiency rankings and the Bears are ranked 9th in team efficiency and KC is ranked 29th. As long as Hanie can limit his mistakes, I don’t see how the Bears will lose at home to this Chiefs team.
Dallas -4.5There are a few rules I try to not break when betting the NFL. I don’t like giving double digits, I don’t like giving points on the road, and I don’t like to rely on a bad team to win a bet. Well, I am going against one of my rules. With the way the rest of the teams are playing in the NFC East, I think that Dallas realizes that the division title is theirs to win…or lose. Dallas is on a 4 game winning streak and now they play AZ. I see Dallas giving max effort in this game especially with the meltdown of the Eagles and the Giants playing Green Bay. If Dallas wins this game, they go up 2 games on the Giants if the Giants lose to Green Bay (which they should). Kolb is going to play in this game and his QB rating is 77.8. Romo has a QB rating of 97.5. I see the Dallas offense being able to move the ball on AZ. In the efficiency ratings I use, Dallas is ranked 13th with the Cardinals being ranked 30th. I don’t see any way that AZ beats Dallas and I feel okay giving points on the road in this game.
I will be looking over some other games and might have another play or two. For now though, I stand by these picks.
Well guys...Sorry for the stinkers this week. Went 1-2 for the week making my YTD 11-5-1. After the week is over, I like to go back over my picks to see where I went wrong. This has helped me learn what situations to stay away from and which ones to use in the future. I said in my Dallas writeup that I was going against one of my rules of not giving points on the road. As you can see, this situation will burn you more times than help you. Phil, Atl, Dallas, & GB all gave points on the road and didn't cover the spread. If I would have heeded my own message, I would have had one less loss. I will promise you that I will not go against my rules of 1) Don't give points on the road, 2) don't give double digits to any team (New Eng -21 to Indy...LOSS) & 3) Don't rely on a bad team to win you a bet. I realize that teams win in these situations but, you will get burned more times than not so...DON'T DO IT!!
Tenn just keeps playing good football. You should still be able to get good line value with this team for the next couple of weeks. Chicago could be in trouble. Forte going out pretty much killed my shot to cover this line.
Still looking at tonights game. I definitely will not take San Diego giving points on the road to a top defensive team like the Jags. Not sure I want to back a team in termoil like the Jags...coach fired, team sold, might be moving...but, if you have to make a wager, I lean to taking the points at home on Monday Night.
Well guys...Sorry for the stinkers this week. Went 1-2 for the week making my YTD 11-5-1. After the week is over, I like to go back over my picks to see where I went wrong. This has helped me learn what situations to stay away from and which ones to use in the future. I said in my Dallas writeup that I was going against one of my rules of not giving points on the road. As you can see, this situation will burn you more times than help you. Phil, Atl, Dallas, & GB all gave points on the road and didn't cover the spread. If I would have heeded my own message, I would have had one less loss. I will promise you that I will not go against my rules of 1) Don't give points on the road, 2) don't give double digits to any team (New Eng -21 to Indy...LOSS) & 3) Don't rely on a bad team to win you a bet. I realize that teams win in these situations but, you will get burned more times than not so...DON'T DO IT!!
Tenn just keeps playing good football. You should still be able to get good line value with this team for the next couple of weeks. Chicago could be in trouble. Forte going out pretty much killed my shot to cover this line.
Still looking at tonights game. I definitely will not take San Diego giving points on the road to a top defensive team like the Jags. Not sure I want to back a team in termoil like the Jags...coach fired, team sold, might be moving...but, if you have to make a wager, I lean to taking the points at home on Monday Night.
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