Week 10 Bets

YTD 27-18-2 (+8.10)

LIVE 0-1 (-1.00)

3-3 -0.32 last week

Steelers +3.5(-110) *1.25/1.14

Steelers ML(+150) *.50/.75

Another look ahead bet. Could of gotten a better ML price today.

No handicapping at all when I made the bet. Just following a 100% trend. Before you say how small and sample sized it is, I'd beg to argue that the rarity of it is what makes it special. 

Pittsburgh is off a bye. The Bengals aren't, and just played an international game. Teams in Pittsburgh's position are 5-0 SU. And 4-0-1 ats.

The scores looked like this:

Jets 27, Bills 11

Chargers 21, Texans 13

Falcons 30, Dolphins 28

Steelers 23, Browns 9

Panthers 25, Eagles 14

4 out of the 5 teams in this position were on the road. The NFL allows those teams coming back from an international game, to play at home when they don't choose to take a bye. For some reason in 2025, the Browns were otr in Pitt following their international game.

4 out of the 5 teams in this position were favored. Only the Jets were +2.5 dogs in 2011 when they beat the Bills 27-11 in Orchard Park.

Despite being favored, these teams still covered with margin. +8 average.

I feel like this spot for the Bengals could be even more difficult than the prior 5 teams in this situation. As they had overtime the week before vs the Titans.

Historically, the Steelers ats record as an underdog vs the Bengals is 15-7 all time.

Mike Mccarthy is 12-6 su coming off a bye.

Concerns:

1. Revenge game for the Bengals. 

2. Quarterbacks. The Steelers have been winning, but not really because of Aaron Rodgers. The Bengals have been winning, and a lot of it has to do with Joe Burrow. 

3. S.O.S. Pitt#29, Cin#13

4. Luck: Pitt#7, Cin#11, this is small.

Let's hope that the fatigue plays a far greater role this Sunday night.

This is a winner!

@undermysac

 Bol this week

Week 11 look ahead:

Buccaneers +3.5(-105) *1.25/1.19

Look closer for a common theme

Coming off the bye & the home team is coming off an overseas game. Hmmm, gonna wait to get a better feel for this game. The Lions do have a Thanksgiving Day game at home vs the Bears following this Tampa game. Also, I thought we would see a line of like Lions -6.5/-7. Surprised this line is so low.

@SecretAgentMan1

 The Buccaneers are a hell of a lot better than their record. 

@undermysac

 The issue I have is if DET loses this week and I think NE might get them. They might be all over TB at home.

And how hot Burrow is.  Can Rodgers keep just managing the game, so to speak.  But CIN also has to stop that running game and PIT has a very good defense all around.

But I like these two and hope you are right.

@undermysac

Like the pit play sac three in a row ATS soon to be four with a possible straight up win as well. They have a stellar top tier overall defense (especially in the red zone) and the under is a play I most definitely will be on also.

GB or Vikes?

WOW,  Pitt?  GL 

Good luck Sac.  

I have to wonder why a team doesn't take the bye week after an overseas game? The wear and tear of the game, travel, time zones, etc.

@sportschat

Teams playing in eastern time zone games the week after playing in Europe are 10-2 ATS. Not sure that really applies in this one since it’s a prime time game, but I wouldn’t discount the Bengals solely because they played a game in Spain last week.

@BigNiner

 Atlanta would be a play based on that stat

having a rough go at the card this week, nothing really jumps off the page at me

so far, leaning lions / pack / dallas

@BigNiner

Yup, one of my concerns I listed in the OP. The quarterback position. 

@undermysac

BOL with the Steelers' pick. 

Steelers' Nation is on pins and needles this week wondering if their secondary, oline, and dline are legit. 

Sunday night will be the epiphany. Will they be triumphant and seek glory or is it time to jump off the Roberto Clemente bridge? 

I have Pittsburgh ties and am surrounded by  rabid Steeler fans. The chatter is unbearable at times. 

My brother in law (who at times has gifted insight) said this about the game: "Pretty simple, if the refs call holding, Steelers dominate. If they don't, Bengals dominate." 

Happy Trails 

Tough one to pick. Leaning Vikings though. Last week was the lowest possible place they could get.

And the Packers are sky high right now.

Getting Kirk Cousins will get the team juiced. It has to, how could it not? They're 6-2, so it's not like they're a team that feels like the season is gone, even though what we saw on MNF looked like a complete downward spiral for the Vikings. 

The injury report looks shitty for the Packers. Josh Jacobs is out for 3 weeks. Although Marshawn Lloyd will be back, he missed the Patriots game. 

Even so, they do not have a good running game. Being 1 dimensional vs the Vikings D is not ideal.

And I don't know if the Packers offensive line can continue to hide their weakness vs such a D. In week 1 Jordan Love was 50%, got sacked 4 times, and was pressured 25 times(52.8%).

Key defenders on the Packers injury report:

Javon Bullard DNP

Zaire Franklin DNP

Lukas Van Ness DNP

The kicker Trey Smack was limited. Dealing with a sore right calf.

The last time the Packers lost at home was vs the Falcons. It was Penix first game. Now they face Cousins in his first game with the Vikings. He was a Falcon last year.

@Buffalobob89074

 Thanks for the post. I know that you are a Steelers guy.

Honest question. When the Bengals and Steelers face off, how often does the line exceed 3? And how many times do these games come down to 3 or less in the final score?

I feel like just about always. You can correct me if I'm wrong.

Also, the historical trend I posted. "The Steelers are 15-7 ats ALL TIME when under dogs vs the Bengals"

I think that is incredibly strong. Just think, they've been dogs only 22 times, ever, vs the Bengals? Crazy.

What does that mean really. Gets your brain going.

Combine that with the international trend, and Mccarthy off a bye trend, why wouldn't I make this bet.

Bengals are 2-7 ATS vs the Steelers since start 2022 season. 

Also since the start of 2022, when Bengals beat the Steelers SU, they have won by 7, 2 & 2. When they lost to Pitt, its by 3, 6, 23, 6, 22, 3.

@dynamicz

 Same real tough slate this week