We rarely see a psychological angle like this in week one: Niners Statement Game

Question

The 49ers did not win a road game last year!

The 49ers lost to the Bucks on the road last year 27-9, in one of their worst performances of the year.
The 49ers have not beaten Bruce Arians since Harbaugh left: losing the last 8.

That's the bad news.

The good news (besides the fact that this not an early start game on the East Coast) is that all those facts I just mentioned will be huge motivating/psychological factors for a 49er team that is much improved from last year--especially on the defensive end. The 49ers know that if they are going to contend this year they have to win on the road, and what better way to do that than winning the first game on the road against a team that beat them last year and a coach who has beaten them 8 straight. There is no look-ahead (they play the Bungles next week) or overlooking this Tampa team. This game (i.e., their first road test) is all the 49ers are thinking about and have been thinking about since last year.

This is, in many ways, a statement game, but not the kind we usually think of. This is a statement the 49ers are making to themselves. A statement that says: we are not last year's team, we are not going to lose for the 9th straight time on the road, and the 9th straight time to Bruce Arians, we will be contenders, we will win the games we are supposed to win, and we will begin this process by burying the putrid Bucks on the road.

The Play: The Niners pickem

begginerboy · Answer

The 49ers did not win a road game last year!

The 49ers lost to the Bucks on the road last year 27-9, in one of their worst performances of the year.
The 49ers have not beaten Bruce Arians since Harbaugh left: losing the last 8.

That's the bad news.

The good news (besides the fact that this not an early start game on the East Coast) is that all those facts I just mentioned will be huge motivating/psychological factors for a 49er team that is much improved from last year--especially on the defensive end. The 49ers know that if they are going to contend this year they have to win on the road, and what better way to do that than winning the first game on the road against a team that beat them last year and a coach who has beaten them 8 straight. There is no look-ahead (they play the Bungles next week) or overlooking this Tampa team. This game (i.e., their first road test) is all the 49ers are thinking about and have been thinking about since last year.

This is, in many ways, a statement game, but not the kind we usually think of. This is a statement the 49ers are making to themselves. A statement that says: we are not last year's team, we are not going to lose for the 9th straight time on the road, and the 9th straight time to Bruce Arians, we will be contenders, we will win the games we are supposed to win, and we will begin this process by burying the putrid Bucks on the road.

The Play: The Niners pickem

SwishSwish1234 · Answer

I&#x27;m sorry but for week 1 no team has any extra motivation or less motivation, Both teams have spent their entire off-season preparing for this game. Sure if you think match-up wise the Niners can get the job done, Great, but to think the Bucs won&#x27;t be just as pumped up, Motivated for this is flat out naive, It&#x27;s a home opener.

lancer89074 · Answer

Even with the late start, the weather will play a part in this game...high temps, high humidity, and high dewpoint. Tampa Bay has something to prove as well but as always BB, your submissions are imaginative and unique. Bravo y buena suerte...

BallingLikeNE · Answer

Great to see you back BB - hope you stick around.Scal is banned?LC works for covers now.To a profitable season!

ereiz03 · Answer

Lots of great points, BB. This Niners team should certainly be improved this year.  I just can&#x2019;t back them until I see them show it in the field, though.  Niners have been terrible on the east coast, terrible vs. Arians, Jimmy G doesn&#x2019;t appear 100%, and so on.

Donkey_Punch_ · Answer

There is no penalty for travelling for a road game week 1. These teams are 2-2 in their past 4 outings, TB taking the last two.

I have no dog in this fight. I like Jimmy G, but TB always seems to find a way to upset my picks in the past.

stoidi · Answer

&#xA;I fear that waiting until they show how good they are this year will hurt since the lines won&#x27;t be in our favor by then.  I will be riding the 49ers hard the first month before anyone takes them seriously as an NFC contender and the lines are relatively in our favor.

begginerboy · Answer

Thanks for the feedback, fellas. But this is one of those bets where if you miss you can practically martingale it the following week when the Niners play cinci.

Very unlikely they lose both these winnable road games. If they do, you might as well put the nail in the coffin for this team and maybe some of the coaches.

BTW, what happened to Scal? Why did he get banned? His old threads offer no clues. Also, what would prevent him from coming back here under a different avatar?

BallingLikeNE · Answer

I think he flipped out when LC went tout and he went on this long rant. Covers referees probably stepped in and banned him. Just my guess...

begginerboy · Answer

I figured as much. Scal made a lot of enemies during the years he was here. Maybe some got promoted to higher places on the food chain. Still don&#x27;t understand why he can&#x27;t create a new profile. How will they know?

Cooler999 · Answer

Umm, I don&#x27;t know.......maybe his writing style?

DoctorSuccess · Answer

I don&#x27;t agree with your take on this game, BB, but I like how you always look for interesting, under-the-radar type emotional edges.

Getty3 · Answer

&#xA;x2 on both accounts. I think the "angle" is a bit of a stretch here especially with TB trying to turn over a new leaf as well.

begginerboy · Answer

Yes, but again. If Niners are going to contend, they need to win one of the first two road games. If they beat Tampa the line against Cinci will be inflated so you lose the chance to jump on the Niners at a bargain basement price. If they somehow lose to Tampa then everyone will say same old crappy Niners (which they are not, BTW, Peter King picked them to go the playoffs) and you&#x27;ll be able to martingale and recoup your losses. They simple can&#x27;t (or shouldn&#x27;t) lose both these games.

thawv · Answer

&#xA; &#xA;With all due respect, I think your angle is a bit of a reach.  It seems like you want to bet SF and are trying to find a great reason to do so.&#xA; &#xA;I&#x27;m not disagreeing with your selection.  I just question how you got to it.&#xA; &#xA;Either way, good luck pal!

Ifan_Bates · Answer

Here is an angle... Grop sucks

begginerboy · Answer

[Quote: Originally Posted by thawv]  &#xD;&#xA; &#xD;&#xA;With all due respect, I think your angle is a bit of a reach.  It seems like you want to bet SF and are trying to find a great reason to do so.&#xD;&#xA; &#xD;&#xA;I&#x27;m not disagreeing with your selection.  I just question how you got to it.&#xD;&#xA; &#xD;&#xA;Either way, good luck pal!  [/Quote]With all due respect to you, I&#x27;ve been following this team since the Joe Montana days. But let&#x27;s talk recent history. The Niners came out of the gates strong last year (but it&#x27;s hard to know/see that unless you follow this team). They lost against the Vikes in that first game, but they played hard and were in it until the end despite 4 turnovers. Then they go home and beat Detroit and then wheels come off in week 3 when Jimmy G gets hurt. But that&#x27;s not half of it. San Francisco never quit in that game, despite the fact that every freakin call went against them: every god damn one. If the refs had called that game fair (instead of favoring the home team) Jimmy G probably never gets hurt. His attempt at trying to squeeze out a few yards by running was all because of him being frustrated with how that game was going and being called. In fact, if you recall LC had 5 units on the Niners on that day!Despite that loss and the loss of Jimmy G. The Niners go on the road in week 4 (with their season essentially over before it even began) and play hard again. This time against the chargers, another playoff team. And lose 29-27. Those were their first 4 performances last year. So my read on this team is based on a lot more than what I&#x27;ve included in my write up.

gooch72 · Answer

I like it and I am on it. Thanks for posting!

DogbiteWilliams · Answer

Garoppolo TD/INT:NE    5/0SF   12/8JG has not been as good at SF and he has started just 8 games in his two years there.  I will be shocked if starts all 16 games.  He is not exactly Mr. Reliable.Jameis Winston&#x27;s grand totals at TB are 88/58; under 2/1 is not exactly a hallmark of a future Hall of Famer.  Football Outsiders has him ranked #8 in QBR, so he should be better than his stats and my superficial analysis would indicate.I have a strong query that likes SF (it is 39-13-5 ATS, Z = 3.47), but I am not happy with the line movement and all the money that entails.  I would still bet SF or pass.Good luck either way.

JWD1984 · Answer

&#xA; &#xA;Every year someone posts their reasoning because they KNOW what a particular team is thinking and they&#x27;ll be UP for this game. Hate to be the bearer of bad news (well, not really), but you don&#x27;t know what they&#x27;re thinking.

begginerboy · Answer

[Quote: Originally Posted by JWD1984]  &#xD;&#xA; &#xD;&#xA;Every year someone posts their reasoning because they KNOW what a particular team is thinking and they&#x27;ll be UP for this game. Hate to be the bearer of bad news (well, not really), but you don&#x27;t know what they&#x27;re thinking.   [/Quote]No kidding. You don&#x27;t even know what you&#x27;re thinking. You think your interpretation of your thoughts are more valid because you know you?! LOL You don&#x27;t know you. You only "think" you do. I don&#x27;t care what they think they&#x27;re thinking. I know what they&#x27;re thinking/feeling, because With Scal gone, I&#x27;m the best psychological capper on this forum.

stoidi · Answer

Off-topic BegginerBoy but I&#x27;m a big WestBrook fan and remember reading that you&#x27;re a Rockets fan.  It seems we will both be rooted for them this season.

erjaq · Answer

Yeah, this write-up does absolutely nothing for me. Is there anybody in the organization who has been there for all 8 losses?

The 49ers know that if they are going to contend this year they have to win on the road, and what better way to do that than winning the first game on the road,

Substitute 'the Buccaneers' for 'the 49ers' and 'at home' for 'on the road' and it actually makes more sense, not less. Out of division road games are probably the least important on a team's schedule.

Throw in the fact that Jimmy G looked like complete dogshit in the preseason this year, perhaps not fully recovered from the injury, or perhaps it's mental, and I would be extremely wary of backing this team until I see them prove it on the field. Kyle Shanahan is a brilliant offensive mind, but so far it hasn't translated to head coaching success. Sorta reminds me of the DC he'll be facing in this game, Todd Bowles. Better as chiefs than Indians.

Also, road teams in Florida early in the season are at a serious disadvantage from the heat and humidity. Players in TB/Jax/Miami have at least been practicing in it, and with the new rules governing the amount of practice time, many players don't have their conditioning up until the end of September. (Similar idea applies to teams traveling to Denver because of the altitude.)

IMO there are far better games to play this weekend, but gun to head I would not hesitate to take the Bucs here.

BOLTA, here's a to a great season.

wmi799 · Answer

Funniest thing I have read in years. You discount other people when you don&#x27;t have a phucking clue what they actually know. You THINK you know. Best psychological capper here!?!  You don&#x27;t have a phucking clue what is in the mind of these players. You just THINK you know.

We rarely see a psychological angle like this in week one: Niners Statement Game

Hot Forum Topics