🏈🏈🏈 “To BEt, or not to BEt, that is the question” ...Fubah2's risky bets

@bct-utah 

  Hope you did!!!

In my capping for next week I will likely evaluate the strengths of the teams in this game as DEAD EVEN, but obviously swung toward EAGLES because of the lucky breaks.  This is regardless how much they win by.  Vikes are still outplaying Eagles offensively with a significant margin in ypp, but the lucky breaks gave the Eagles extra drives and thus more yards and points.  The final score is very unlikely to be indicative of the play - minus the lucky breaks!

Take away the unfortunate breaks and the Vikes O is still a serious threat to force a backdoor cover!

Crossing my finger on this drive. Thanks man . 

 @bct-utah

I have nothing on this game but a Philly win with a Vikes cover seems fair

Woohoo!

Quote Originally Posted by bct-utah:

Woohoo!

@bct-utah

Good insight for you to make that call!   

And BOL on your bets this weekend!

@fubah2

 You too man. I did horrendous last week in college. Time to turn things around. 

Star defensive tackle for CHIEFS,  Jones is back and eager to leave his mark in Jackxonville.   I EXPECT very inspired play from him, since he knows he's let the team down by being a holdout.   They gave him what he wanted for his side of the deal, now HE MUST RETURN THE FAVOR......

He should be a difference maker to some degree, but of course this assumes he doesn't get injured......

Leans I am investigating pending injury status....

Falcons

Raiders

Bengals

Lions

Bucs

With my style of handicapping I find the first two weeks to be basically a crap shoot....

Week 1 is totally unknown.  No performances on which to assess.  Just guessing.

Then in week 2 is the difficulty of assessing whether their week 1 performances were

a/  indicative, or

b/  a "one-off"

.....which also comes down to guesswork with extremely limited facts.

My week 2 "leans" are based on assuming everything we saw last week was all completely "indicative" (ie, their true and expected level of performance against that quality of opp and in that particular venue)

But are they all?

Were some good performances (or bad performances) a "one-off"  or an "illusion" that's going to bite us hard if we dare to think the team really is THAT good (or THAT bad) ????

Packers offense looked very mediocre last week to me, but their defense looked great!  Mind you they were facing daaaaa Bears - who looked awful much of the time....

Which one is the illusion? And how objective can we be with only ONE GAME performance?

Dog bettors won the day in week 1, and that seems logical to recur.

My best guess at being objective (no biases) is that the BILLS are definitely NOT as bad as we all witnessed last MNF.  No way.  They will turn it around for sure, but WHEN?  and by HOW MUCH? remains to be seen.

The Raiders otoh looked decent on the road last week in Denver.  They were dogs and not only covered but WON outright, despite one net turnover against them. Garoppolo  looked good and that is not out of sync for him.  He's a very decent QB!

Josh Allen and the BILLS **will** reduce mistakes and play better, but 8 pts is a LOT to cover in a league of such parity.....

Bills win more than likely, but no way I would risk laying -350 ML after just one performance and a BAD one at that.

My bet:  duh Raaayyyyduhs to cover +8 -120   

(note: not a *Best bet)

Tampa was fortunate to win in Minnesota last week, new QB and all.

But I think they know that too.  They need to improve and with a new QB we can expect that every week, albeit in small doses is likely.

Bears were exposed by a very aggressive Packer front 7.

Tampa has the tapes.....

Bears not a good team.........Bucs aren't maybe much better but likely slightly better and at home.

BUCS -135

Lions -215

And in less than 3 mins, duh Raaaayyyyduhs quickly march downfield and score an EARNED TD....

More LEANS.....

Cards

Ka-Boys

Broncos

Pats

End of 1Q, 7 - 7 score....LIVE BET:

BILLS to win -330

With 7 mins left in 1H it is 14 - 10 BILLS.....

7 EARNED pts for BILLS

10 EARNED pts for duh Raaayyyduhs

..... so far.....

4th and goal from the 1.......you go for it.....but don't PASS.... JOSH should keep it wide

So they passed.......sigh.......

No matter.

Leaving LV at the one with 3 mins left and BILLS have all time outs......they *should* get it back and score something.....

.....still 14 -10 BILLS driving in final min of 1H.....added LIVE BET:

BILLS -1.5 -334

Commercial timeout for review of potential 1st down run.....

BUCS vastly outplaying Bears in 13 - 10 BUCS lead at HT

292 yds to 114  albeit one extra drive

7.5 ypp vs just 5.4 ypp

Mayfield outperforming Fields

Blocked FG stopped BUCS from being up 6, as the performances indicate

In Detroit, the LIONS have EARNED a 14 - 7 lead, by outplaying the Seahawks.

DESPITE A LOST FUMBLE....

Lions a whopping 8.2 ypp  vs  5.6 ypp

and LIONS 230 yds to only 184

HOLY SHT!!  First play after the KO and LIONS fumble at 20.......LUCKY Seahawks.........unearned TD to tie it.....