Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Reviewing my notes further, this could potentially help some, or not . . . I am 29 - 3 when the juice I am staking is -270 and higher, but specifically for moneyline bets of -270 and higher I went 13 - 1 In a related matter, I was looking at the *HOME* FAVS of -7.5 and higher which I chose to bet, but made those bets buying pts on an "Alternate Line" with heavy juice. Here are my results when I bought pts to improve a "select" HEAVY *HOME* FAV's chances of covering at a significantly lower number: bought pts down to -6.5 .... 0 - 1 -332 (Eagles fail cover by 1 pt)bought pts down to -6.0 .... 1 - 0bought pts down to -3.5 .... 1 - 0bought pts down to -3.0 .... 2 - 0bought pts down to -2.5 .... 8 - 0 (mean avg stake is -315) = 12 - 1 when buy pts despite heavy juice Good luck to you, Army I mean that. But sunuvabtch you risk a lot of chalk! With your frequent talk about regression after running a hot streak, don't you think you could just as easily regress on all this chalk too? I mean there's such a thing as pushing your luck, right?
As for chalk, well should I abandon a formula that's working for me?
I am 44 - 18 on all the bets where I am buying pts, but laying heavy chalk! While it might be tempting to assume heavy chalk bets are a bad idea, this is not the case in my handicapping style (including baseball)...
• All bets where my juice is -270 and higher (moneylines and/or Alt lines) I am having a terrific season 29 - 3
Of those, a nice 21 - 3 on designated*BestBets(when the juice is -270 and up)
3
Quote Originally Posted by baish2012:
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Reviewing my notes further, this could potentially help some, or not . . . I am 29 - 3 when the juice I am staking is -270 and higher, but specifically for moneyline bets of -270 and higher I went 13 - 1 In a related matter, I was looking at the *HOME* FAVS of -7.5 and higher which I chose to bet, but made those bets buying pts on an "Alternate Line" with heavy juice. Here are my results when I bought pts to improve a "select" HEAVY *HOME* FAV's chances of covering at a significantly lower number: bought pts down to -6.5 .... 0 - 1 -332 (Eagles fail cover by 1 pt)bought pts down to -6.0 .... 1 - 0bought pts down to -3.5 .... 1 - 0bought pts down to -3.0 .... 2 - 0bought pts down to -2.5 .... 8 - 0 (mean avg stake is -315) = 12 - 1 when buy pts despite heavy juice Good luck to you, Army I mean that. But sunuvabtch you risk a lot of chalk! With your frequent talk about regression after running a hot streak, don't you think you could just as easily regress on all this chalk too? I mean there's such a thing as pushing your luck, right?
As for chalk, well should I abandon a formula that's working for me?
I am 44 - 18 on all the bets where I am buying pts, but laying heavy chalk! While it might be tempting to assume heavy chalk bets are a bad idea, this is not the case in my handicapping style (including baseball)...
• All bets where my juice is -270 and higher (moneylines and/or Alt lines) I am having a terrific season 29 - 3
Of those, a nice 21 - 3 on designated*BestBets(when the juice is -270 and up)
Quote Originally Posted by baish2012: Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Reviewing my notes further, this could potentially help some, or not . . . I am 29 - 3 when the juice I am staking is -270 and higher, but specifically for moneyline bets of -270 and higher I went 13 - 1 In a related matter, I was looking at the *HOME* FAVS of -7.5 and higher which I chose to bet, but made those bets buying pts on an "Alternate Line" with heavy juice. Here are my results when I bought pts to improve a "select" HEAVY *HOME* FAV's chances of covering at a significantly lower number: bought pts down to -6.5 .... 0 - 1 -332 (Eagles fail cover by 1 pt)bought pts down to -6.0 .... 1 - 0bought pts down to -3.5 .... 1 - 0bought pts down to -3.0 .... 2 - 0bought pts down to -2.5 .... 8 - 0 (mean avg stake is -315) = 12 - 1 when buy pts despite heavy juice Good luck to you, Army I mean that. But sunuvabtch you risk a lot of chalk! With your frequent talk about regression after running a hot streak, don't you think you could just as easily regress on all this chalk too? I mean there's such a thing as pushing your luck, right? As for chalk, well should I abandon a formula that's working for me? I am 44 - 18 on all the bets where I am buying pts, but laying heavy chalk! While it might be tempting to assume heavy chalk bets are a bad idea, this is not the case in my handicapping style (including baseball)... • All bets where my juice is -270 and higher (moneylines and/or Alt lines) I am having a terrific season 29 - 3 Of those, a nice 21 - 3 on designated *BestBets (when the juice is -270 and up)
It still loses some to be sure, but overall I am way ahead.
1
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:
Quote Originally Posted by baish2012: Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Reviewing my notes further, this could potentially help some, or not . . . I am 29 - 3 when the juice I am staking is -270 and higher, but specifically for moneyline bets of -270 and higher I went 13 - 1 In a related matter, I was looking at the *HOME* FAVS of -7.5 and higher which I chose to bet, but made those bets buying pts on an "Alternate Line" with heavy juice. Here are my results when I bought pts to improve a "select" HEAVY *HOME* FAV's chances of covering at a significantly lower number: bought pts down to -6.5 .... 0 - 1 -332 (Eagles fail cover by 1 pt)bought pts down to -6.0 .... 1 - 0bought pts down to -3.5 .... 1 - 0bought pts down to -3.0 .... 2 - 0bought pts down to -2.5 .... 8 - 0 (mean avg stake is -315) = 12 - 1 when buy pts despite heavy juice Good luck to you, Army I mean that. But sunuvabtch you risk a lot of chalk! With your frequent talk about regression after running a hot streak, don't you think you could just as easily regress on all this chalk too? I mean there's such a thing as pushing your luck, right? As for chalk, well should I abandon a formula that's working for me? I am 44 - 18 on all the bets where I am buying pts, but laying heavy chalk! While it might be tempting to assume heavy chalk bets are a bad idea, this is not the case in my handicapping style (including baseball)... • All bets where my juice is -270 and higher (moneylines and/or Alt lines) I am having a terrific season 29 - 3 Of those, a nice 21 - 3 on designated *BestBets (when the juice is -270 and up)
It still loses some to be sure, but overall I am way ahead.
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Instinct tell me if Seahawks put it across the goalline they cover the game spread at least, maybe more And now they grab the first half lead
49ers defense loses some grips in the 2nd Q... good hold up now.
0
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Instinct tell me if Seahawks put it across the goalline they cover the game spread at least, maybe more And now they grab the first half lead
49ers defense loses some grips in the 2nd Q... good hold up now.
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Instinct tell me if Seahawks put it across the goalline they cover the game spread at least, maybe more And now they grab the first half lead
Bonehead play by Ward sets up a FGA.....................
which results in a free 3 pts for Seahawks.
They will cover the game spread.
Left in doubt is the game winner su
0
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Instinct tell me if Seahawks put it across the goalline they cover the game spread at least, maybe more And now they grab the first half lead
Bonehead play by Ward sets up a FGA.....................
Quote Originally Posted by Europa: I like SF in the 2H, think Purdy will get back to his regular season track after few freshman jitter in 1H. Yeah I'm looking into that as well
I am not playing -6, just my hunch. Saw quite lopsided Seattle 2h plays here. Hopefully, SF wins this by 2+ pts for you, Fubah.
1
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:
Quote Originally Posted by Europa: I like SF in the 2H, think Purdy will get back to his regular season track after few freshman jitter in 1H. Yeah I'm looking into that as well
I am not playing -6, just my hunch. Saw quite lopsided Seattle 2h plays here. Hopefully, SF wins this by 2+ pts for you, Fubah.
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Quote Originally Posted by Europa: I like SF in the 2H, think Purdy will get back to his regular season track after few freshman jitter in 1H. Yeah I'm looking into that as well I am not playing -6, just my hunch. Saw quite lopsided Seattle 2h plays here. Hopefully, SF wins this by 2+ pts for you, Fubah.
Thanks. Well differnt scenarios could happen here. Typically a DD fav that is behind at half in a close game comes out real hard in the 3Q and prevail
2
Quote Originally Posted by Europa:
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Quote Originally Posted by Europa: I like SF in the 2H, think Purdy will get back to his regular season track after few freshman jitter in 1H. Yeah I'm looking into that as well I am not playing -6, just my hunch. Saw quite lopsided Seattle 2h plays here. Hopefully, SF wins this by 2+ pts for you, Fubah.
Thanks. Well differnt scenarios could happen here. Typically a DD fav that is behind at half in a close game comes out real hard in the 3Q and prevail
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Quote Originally Posted by Europa: I like SF in the 2H, think Purdy will get back to his regular season track after few freshman jitter in 1H. Yeah I'm looking into that as well I am not playing -6, just my hunch. Saw quite lopsided Seattle 2h plays here. Hopefully, SF wins this by 2+ pts for you, Fubah.
Good luck with your teaser, Europa!
I have a ML parlay on those same teams plus Bills.
0
Quote Originally Posted by Europa:
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Quote Originally Posted by Europa: I like SF in the 2H, think Purdy will get back to his regular season track after few freshman jitter in 1H. Yeah I'm looking into that as well I am not playing -6, just my hunch. Saw quite lopsided Seattle 2h plays here. Hopefully, SF wins this by 2+ pts for you, Fubah.
Good luck with your teaser, Europa!
I have a ML parlay on those same teams plus Bills.
Purdy ended his time at Iowa State as a 3-time All-Big-12 quarterback and holding 32 school records including career pass attempts, completions, percentage, yards, and both passing (81) and total (100) touchdowns.
His 14 games with 300+ passing yards was nearly triple the previous school record
1
Wikipedia
Purdy ended his time at Iowa State as a 3-time All-Big-12 quarterback and holding 32 school records including career pass attempts, completions, percentage, yards, and both passing (81) and total (100) touchdowns.
His 14 games with 300+ passing yards was nearly triple the previous school record
• All bets where my juice is -
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