🏈🏈🏈 “To BEt, or not to BEt, that is the question” ...Fubah2's risky bets

WINNER! 

Saints@FALCONS looks to have too much uncertainty for any solid edge so this is a coinflipper.

HAPPY THANKSGIVING!
   BoL to all those who put in the work!

 L -1.80u  Lions-1 -380  *BB
W+4.0u   LIVE BET PACKERS -200 *BB 4u
W+1.0u   LIVE BET PACKERS -280 *BB
W+1.0u   K'Boys -4 -420
W+1.0u   Niners -320      *BB
W+1.0u   Niners -1 -310    *BB
W+3.0u   LIVE BET DOLPHINS -3.5 -334 *BB 3u

So far this week: 6 - 1  +9.2 units  (5 - 1 *Best Bets)

Last week:  17 - 4   +45.8 units    (10 - 1 *Best Bets!)

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NCAA football last week:  15 - 6   +41.0 units        (9 - 3 *Best Bets)

NCAA football this week:  13 - 1  +58.25 units     (12 - 0 *Best Bets)

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2-weeks combined:  51 - 12  +154.25 u    (36 - 5 *Best Bets!)

NE @NYG         ie, the "TOILET BOWL"

I see no value in guessing which team might get lucky.

Pass

Tampa @COLTS

Even matchup between mediocre teams. DEAD EVEN.

And so a line in the range of -2 to -3.5 is accurate for the home squad.

Coin flipper.

PASS

At first it was looking unlikely that star rush passer for LV, Maxx Crosby, would take the field on Sunday but yesterday they were saying he is optimistic about playing.

TONEY out for KC!! ....also Hardman and McKinnon

Good news for VIKES is they get back TE Hockenson!......however likely still with star JEFFERSON

Fubah's super-duper-pooper, deep-dive-forensic, totally friggin awesome, fully guaranteed NFL Ratings for Sunday, Nov 26:
(in ranked order left to right within each tier)

Top tier:    Philly, Dallas, 49ers, ....Balt, KC, Miami,

2nd tier:    Detroit, Houston, Jags, Buffy, Minny, Cleve,

Mediocre:  Sea, NOR, Pitts, Cinci, LAC, GB,  Indy, Tampa, Rams,

4th tier:   Denver, Atlanta, LV, Tenn, AZ, Chicago,  Jets, Wash,

Bottom:  NYG, NE, Carolina

Those were adjusted after Thursday/Friday ThanksGiving games

  Key stat in handicapping...

NFL Teams with best point differential:

+162   Dallas   (8 - 3)

+140    49ers    (8 - 3)

+127    Ravens  (8 - 3)

+104    Buffalo  (6 - 5)

 +88     Miami   (8 - 3)

Which teams "might" try to position themselves for top draft pick by not playing to win all their remaining games?

If they are going to "tank" I would hope they at least don't do it in front of home town faithful.

So I am looking at those teams who are in contention for that prized #1 pick (or #2 is great also) but who are playing ON THE ROAD, where they can easily disguise their loss by claiming "it was a tough road game"

Which teams "might" try to position themselves for top draft pick by not playing to win all their remaining games?

If they are going to "tank" I would hope they at least don't do it in front of home town faithful.

So I am looking at those teams who are in contention for that prized #1 pick (or #2 is great also) but who are playing ON THE ROAD, where they can easily disguise their loss by claiming "it was a tough road game"

Exciting news!! Mac Jones may play for the mighty PATRIOTS!

Speaking of the Bills (who were my fav team for betting until star LB Milano and star DT Jones were ruled OUT for the season) we already know they have a banged up D on all levels but they get 2 back in the secondary: Hyde and Johnson....

Unfortunately they also LOSE 2 in the secondary: Rapp and Jackson

Shouldn't lions be -3.8 units? 

And is packers win 2 units or 4 units? So you risked 4 units or u risked 8 units?

And dolphins win 1 unit like all other picks?

hard to tell how accurate the record is

Either way Gl f2

GL today 

Hi dubz!   Hooray,  you're the winner! LOL

Seriously, I slipped that "accidental error" in there on Detroit's loss just to see if anybody actually pays attention to what *ANY* member on Cover's forums claims for a record or if they all just accept the guy's word.  LOL   

YOU sir, are the only astute person to catch it!

Thanks!  I will post the corrected version next 

As for the others, when I post a game like same -420 and it wins, I claim the common one unit win, like everyone else. That's because the standard assumption is the pick is "to win one unit" unless otherwise stated

When I specifically place a unit designation then likewise that is "to win X units"

So yes, a bet like -400 means risking 4 units to win one unit

Thus, a -400 2units bet means I am risking 800 (or 8 units) to win 2 units.  If it loses, then -8.0 units - which happens occasionally.

Now for ATS or totals, the assumption is the juice is standard -110 (unless otherwise stated specifically with every bet)

So if a bet like -3.5 3units LOSES, then that is actually -3.5 (-110) X 3 for -3.3 units lost.

You probably know all this already but I typed it all in case newbies might be reading...

Corrected version (lost 2 more units)

Despite being active, Heinicke will serve as the backup behind https://www.rotowire.com/football/player/desmond-ridder-15928, who's reclaimed the starting spot after Heinicke struggled through three appearances before suffering a hamstring injury. Barring an injury to Ridder, Heinicke will presumably serve as the primary backup for the remainder of the 2023 campaign.