This line is extremely FISHY

This game is a simple handicap to me. We’ve all watched the Raiders offensive line all season. Geno has almost no time in the pocket at all week after week. I honestly don’t think Geno is a bad qb. But if you put just about anyone behind that bad of pass blocking you’ll see disastrous results. 

I played the under at 36.5. I think it’s still a play at 36. It’s the kind of bet that you make and if you lose because of crazy special teams or defensive scores you just deal with it and move on. As far as the side goes it’s Cleveland or nothing imo. To bet on Geno behind that line with Myles Garrett on the other side is something I’m not willing to do. Sanders might just come out and play well. He might be worse than last week. Who knows? But with the Raiders you know exactly what you’ll get. Geno running for his life, probably an interception and a fumble and possibly multiple of each, and an offensive unit that simply doesn’t have enough opportunities to develop plays. I’d love to see the odds on no touchdown.

Just for hahas…the total at under 18 is +1200…under 24 +420…Yes and yes please.

@brn2loslive2win

 Good points.  I agree.  I played UNDER 37 early.  I usually add on as the week goes if I like it.  I doubt I add to this one though.

@Raiders22

Cmon you gotta admit those alt unders are enticing!

A Bad Cleveland Offensive team on the Road starting a 3rd string rookie QB making his first NFL start... line seems about right . Every team in the NFL would be favored here 

Geno and the offence sucks

Browns has a very good d they will make Geno run for his life

as for Saunders he will try to prove the critics wrong.

What's better is to get a win for the Raiders, im taking +4 and pray for a 3-0 game lol

Sanders will ball out.  Best bet I see is actually Browns TT over.  Raiders will try to mimic Ravens plan of over-committing to the blitz and I am willing to bet Stefanski will adjust and Sanders will kill them with hot route after hot route and then over the top when the defense gets sick of getting burned. 

Could see the Browns winning decisively 36-14. 

I feel an urge to bet on the Browns ML and bet them asap before Vegas adjusts the lines moving forward.  This shit reminds me of Mahomes in '18 before Vegas adjusted the lines.  Back then you could have bet on the Chiefs and Mahomes every single game for like 8 straight weeks when he was torching the league week by week before Vegas and the sharp money adjusted. Not saying Sanders will torch the league, but that the Browns defense is very good, and Sanders is good enough that this team will easily beat the spreads Vegas will be setting for them right now, until of course, they adjust. I figure Browns will get at least 3-4 weeks before the lines stop being as favorable.  

This is, of course, assuming Sanders does not flame out like he did against the Ravens.  So to me this is a bet on if he can become the QB he has shown flashes of becoming back in Colorado, and his current very low perceived value to the betting public .

I will be hammering, Browns TT over, Browns +3.5 and Browns ML.

Another thing I like to look at is a team in 2nd half in a +/-8 point game.  In other words, a one-score close game late.  

For example on Pass Defense:

At home PS/Play is 15th at .214

On the Road their PS/Play is 9th at .043

At Home their Pass Rating against is 15th at 87.8

On the Road their Pass Rating against is 30th at 132.4

At home their Pass Defense WAR is 13th at .1

On the Road their Pass Defense WAR is 23rd at -.1

Now it is different with the other two phases:

Pass Rush:

At Home their BT+MT% is 4th at 5.9%

On the Road their BT+MT% is 11th at 13.3%

At Home their Sack% is 2nd at 14.8%

On the Road their Sack% is 8th at 10.0%

At Home their Pass Rush WAR is 3rd at .3

On the Road their Pass Rush WAR is 14th at .1

At Home their PS/Play is 5th at .267

On the Road their PS/Play is 5th at .253

Run Defense:

At Home their BT+MT% is 15th at 11.4%

On the Road their BT+MT% is 8th at 14.0%

At Home their stuff% is 4th at 36.0%

On the Road their stuff% is 6th at 29.0%

At Home their Run Defense WAR is 2nd at .3

On the Road their Run Defense WAR is 9th at .1

At Home their PS/Play is 4th at .471

On the Road their PS/Play is 1st at .481

So, essentially, even in a close game late you see the same thing.

The only 'weak' part of their defense to exploit is their Pass Defense.  

It is very hard to run on them and they get a great pass rush.  

But they have the same issue with defending the pass.

So, again, I just am not sure that Geno and LV has what it takes to take advantage of this 'weakness'.

You do not see much improvement in LV and Geno in these types of games.

Of course, both sides still have to gameplan and play the game.

Raiders win on a late field goal.

There very much is such of a thing as a trap, however it only exists in ones coinciousness. Brain is holding information and or experiences that contradict what it's seeing now as the line.  These are the games the person feeling the trap should avoid because they will always second guess themselves whether they go with or against apparent trap and ultimately lose more than win. 

If you have a system and are emotionless, there are no traps just good and bad lines.

Sure, you can in effect, 'trap' yourself in a game.

But there is no such thing as a 'trap' game from Vegas.

Vegas is never putting out an intentionally bad line to attract bettors on a particular side.

They already have a built in advantage, so there is no need for this.  Especially, on one game.

The other big issue is they would essentially 'trap' themselves.

Because the pros would jump all over an intentionally bad line put out to attract casual bettors to one side.

So, yes, you may have a 'bad' read or understanding of the dynamics in that game.  But I would not call that a 'trap' game as much as just an uniformed bettor.

@Raiders22

 Two things I always get a chuckle at-

“Trap game/trap line” and “look ahead game”

Ever notice that these things are only “real” when the result is in favor of the accusation? Nobody ever comes on here after the team that was suspected of possibly “looking ahead” actually destroys their opponent and does exactly what they were supposed to do…

Do you ever see a post after the fact that says “well, that team was certainly NOT looking ahead as they won by 20 points…”

Before anyone thinks a game or a line is a “trap”, maybe go back and look at all of the other times you suspected that and see what the actual result was…

@brn2loslive2win

 Very true. 

A lot of recency bias as well.  If it does 'happen' one time.  It is the only one remembered for a while and used as an example.

To me this is far different than buying and selling teams at a high or low.

Just because people cannot figure a line out they are suspicious. 

If I had to bet a side in this game it would be on the Miles Garrett side