The case for KC: Championship Writeup

I wonder if KC was saving the return of their all pro Olineman Mitchell Schwartz for the big game? Anyone have any information on their second tier subs to replace Fischer and others? 

Mahomes needs some time back there to hit his marquee receivers...

@lancer89074

 just did...

hmmmm...okay and thanks kc blitz...something to think about. 

Some SB trends:

• Favorites have covered two straight Super Bowls and three of the last four. Overall, favorites are 27-25-2.

• The last two Super Bowls went under the total. There have been 10 overs and 10 unders in the last 20 Super Bowls, and it's 26-26-1 overall (no total for Super Bowl I).

• AFC teams have won and covered five of the last six Super Bowls.

• The favored team is 35-19 straight up in the 54 Super Bowls.

• A total of 57 would be the second-highest closing Super Bowl total ever. Super Bowl LVI closed at 58 and went over in OT.

• The Chiefs enter 8-10 ATS on the season, the fifth team to advance to the Super Bowl with a losing ATS record (only the 2012 Ravens went on to win).

• Three of the last four preseason favorites went on to win the Super Bowl (Chiefs began 2020 as favorite at +400).

• Tom Brady is 4-5 ATS and 6-3 outright in his career in the Super Bowl. He has been an underdog once, in his first Super Bowl vs. the Rams. (Only two quarterbacks have won multiple Super Bowls as an underdog: Eli Manning and Jim Plunkett, with two each.)

Hey BB why couldn’t KC starting LT and RT be injured during last years SB? Ofcourse vs Brady, both guys OUT.

@ActionMagnet

 Niners front 4 was head and shoulders better than this Buccs front 4.... Tampa is going to blitz, whether they need to or not that is their MO 

If KC went into last year's SB with this offensive line it would've been a whole different story 

I find these trends (see below) disturbing for the ATS bet on the Chiefs. Favorites are winning at 65% rate but only covering at 50% rate which means the lines for the SB are extremely sharp. Add to this the fact that Carl Cheffers (the lead official) is 7-1 ATS for the home dog, 11-5 ats overall for the home team and 7-9 SU for the home team and Chiefs ML seems the safer play. 

• Favorites have covered two straight Super Bowls and three of the last four. Overall, favorites are 27-25-2.

• The favored team is 35-19 straight up in the 54 Super Bowls.

@begginerboy

 those referee stats are not even for the Super Bowl though...I get the mention but I don't see much weight in worth..... Jeffers was the head man in charge when the Pats overtook that 28-3 Falcons lead fyi.  

@begginerboy

 I might have missed something but if you go back and look at the last 10 years or so, you'd have to go all the way back to 2009 Steelers/Cards to find a game where the SU winner did NOT cover the line.  Dogs that have covered have won SU and favorites that won all covered.  

3 times in last 20 years plus 1 PUSH did the SU winner not cover the line.  

And the dog was covering 90% of that SB game. This is the first time in SB history we have a real home team so I’m not going to completely discount the trend. 

From Greg Rosenthal:

Mahomes has directed 13 drives in these playoffs, excluding kneeldowns, and the opposing defense has stopped him from scoring a touchdown or attempting a field goal exactly once. That one time, the first drive Sunday night, ended with a drop by Tyreek Hill on a beautifully thrown pass by Mahomes 40 yards down the field. Chad Henne has the Chiefs' only offensive turnover of the postseason, and their defense just played its two best games of the season in successive weeks. Mahomes' toe, by the way, looks just fine, thanks.