This year I seriously started betting football 8 weeks ago and have won 33 units since that time. I’m putting it all on the Chiefs at -150 ml to beat the Bills of Buffalo in order to win 22 units. It’s not the kind of betting I recommend people do, especially because there is a chance the best QB of his generation may not play, but I’m willing to take it because I can afford to. My apologies to Bills fans for my underestimating and even insultingthem the last couple of weeks. I’ve been under tremendous stress of late, and I come here for the banter and to vent after tough losses (with gambling just being a form of escape from the real life losses that I’ve been experiencing of late: my best friend died of Covid, my aunt has terminal cancer, my child is suffering from a dangerous eating disorder and my father is on his deathbed with Covid at a hospital where I can’t visit him). All this to say, don’t judge me too harshly for things I’ve said on this forum, or the hours I’ve spent here, it’s my only way right now of dealing with life’s blows, which keep coming and coming.
To the writeup:
Bills are a fine team with a QB that is only second to one: Pat Mahomes. Of course, if Mahomes doesn’t play next week this bet will be a bad one, not because I don’t think KC would still have a chance to win (more on that later) but because of the number I’m getting. With Mahomes I think KC would be, at the very least, -200 at home. But I think with Mahomes that number should really be closer to -300. But that’s just my opinion. As to the game, here is what I see:
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To remove first post, remove entire topic.
This year I seriously started betting football 8 weeks ago and have won 33 units since that time. I’m putting it all on the Chiefs at -150 ml to beat the Bills of Buffalo in order to win 22 units. It’s not the kind of betting I recommend people do, especially because there is a chance the best QB of his generation may not play, but I’m willing to take it because I can afford to. My apologies to Bills fans for my underestimating and even insultingthem the last couple of weeks. I’ve been under tremendous stress of late, and I come here for the banter and to vent after tough losses (with gambling just being a form of escape from the real life losses that I’ve been experiencing of late: my best friend died of Covid, my aunt has terminal cancer, my child is suffering from a dangerous eating disorder and my father is on his deathbed with Covid at a hospital where I can’t visit him). All this to say, don’t judge me too harshly for things I’ve said on this forum, or the hours I’ve spent here, it’s my only way right now of dealing with life’s blows, which keep coming and coming.
To the writeup:
Bills are a fine team with a QB that is only second to one: Pat Mahomes. Of course, if Mahomes doesn’t play next week this bet will be a bad one, not because I don’t think KC would still have a chance to win (more on that later) but because of the number I’m getting. With Mahomes I think KC would be, at the very least, -200 at home. But I think with Mahomes that number should really be closer to -300. But that’s just my opinion. As to the game, here is what I see:
Defense: a slight edge to Buffalo (though with these offenses the difference doesn’t really come into play)
Intangibles/experience Chiefs
When I see an edge in both the QB position and Coaching in an NFL playoff game, I don’t think twice about which team I’m backing. We saw what Andy Reid could do this week?! That was some great coaching and attention to detail (with an average backup QB being so involved with the game plan that the team successfully executed the most difficult play of the season with all the pressure in the world being on them) that we saw this week. Even if Mahomes can’t go, I give KC a solid chance at pulling off the upset as Buffalo will be under a mountain of pressure to win a game nobody expects KC to. But if Mahomes does play (returning from his WWE like exit in WWE fashion), and Sammy Watkins and Clyde Edwards-Helaire both return, then I have a hard time seeing the Bills stopping this two dimensional, running and passing freight train of an offense. We already saw what the Colts two dimensional offense, with the ancient Philip Rivers did to this Buffalo defense. And the one dimensional Ravens weren’t all that bad until they threw a game changing interception. This is not to say Buffalo didn’t play well or earn those victories, but simply that the games were closer than they appear and the opposing teams had some unfortunate things happen to them. If Buffalo continues to be the beneficiary of good luck, as they seem to be with the Mahomes injury, they’ll advance. But I’m not betting on it, perhaps to my own demise. I’m betting that the horse shoe flips this time in favor of the home team, the Kansas City Chiefs.
On the offensive side, Buffalo’s passing game may even be better than the Chiefs. The problem, as I see it, is that unlike the Chiefs the Bills are not a dual threat team, and though the KC defense is average, they’ll have a lot less to contend with and worry about than the Buffalo defense. We saw this last year when the Chiefs forced the Niners, a great running team, to doing what they liked doing least, passing. And the Niners weren’t able to answer. The Bills will need to have over a hundred yards rushing to keep the Chiefs honest. Of course they can get that, but that (ie., running the ball with mediocre backs) also comes at the cost of not taking advantage of their own lethal passing game. It’s kind of damned if you do and damned if you don’t scenario on offense for the Bills.
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Coaching edge: Chiefs
Quarterbacks: (if Mahomes plays) Chiefs
Defense: a slight edge to Buffalo (though with these offenses the difference doesn’t really come into play)
Intangibles/experience Chiefs
When I see an edge in both the QB position and Coaching in an NFL playoff game, I don’t think twice about which team I’m backing. We saw what Andy Reid could do this week?! That was some great coaching and attention to detail (with an average backup QB being so involved with the game plan that the team successfully executed the most difficult play of the season with all the pressure in the world being on them) that we saw this week. Even if Mahomes can’t go, I give KC a solid chance at pulling off the upset as Buffalo will be under a mountain of pressure to win a game nobody expects KC to. But if Mahomes does play (returning from his WWE like exit in WWE fashion), and Sammy Watkins and Clyde Edwards-Helaire both return, then I have a hard time seeing the Bills stopping this two dimensional, running and passing freight train of an offense. We already saw what the Colts two dimensional offense, with the ancient Philip Rivers did to this Buffalo defense. And the one dimensional Ravens weren’t all that bad until they threw a game changing interception. This is not to say Buffalo didn’t play well or earn those victories, but simply that the games were closer than they appear and the opposing teams had some unfortunate things happen to them. If Buffalo continues to be the beneficiary of good luck, as they seem to be with the Mahomes injury, they’ll advance. But I’m not betting on it, perhaps to my own demise. I’m betting that the horse shoe flips this time in favor of the home team, the Kansas City Chiefs.
On the offensive side, Buffalo’s passing game may even be better than the Chiefs. The problem, as I see it, is that unlike the Chiefs the Bills are not a dual threat team, and though the KC defense is average, they’ll have a lot less to contend with and worry about than the Buffalo defense. We saw this last year when the Chiefs forced the Niners, a great running team, to doing what they liked doing least, passing. And the Niners weren’t able to answer. The Bills will need to have over a hundred yards rushing to keep the Chiefs honest. Of course they can get that, but that (ie., running the ball with mediocre backs) also comes at the cost of not taking advantage of their own lethal passing game. It’s kind of damned if you do and damned if you don’t scenario on offense for the Bills.
The Bills have been a covering machine in the second half of the season while KC has been exactly the opposite. This sets up for a very interesting situation for gamblers: keep backing the team on the hot streak, or bet that it finally comes to a halt against a team that can’t buy an ATS win under any circumstance?!
Finally, there is the old adage in sports that a team has to pay its dues before finally winning the big one. We have seen it in the NBA and the NFL for many years, but there are also the exceptions. Most recently, the Warriors winning their first title caught fire that year. The Raptors a couple of years ago got lots of breaks on their way to winning it all. In the NFL, the Niners got all the way to the SB but they didn’t have to go through any teams that had recently been there. The Falcons also did it a few years ago, but that team had paid its dues. The AFC has been a different animal because all roads went through Brady and the Pats, and the teams that got to the SB often had to beat them to get there. Is KC now that team, or was last year a one off? I’m betting on the former.
Good Luck with whatever you play
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Regarding the spread:
The Bills have been a covering machine in the second half of the season while KC has been exactly the opposite. This sets up for a very interesting situation for gamblers: keep backing the team on the hot streak, or bet that it finally comes to a halt against a team that can’t buy an ATS win under any circumstance?!
Finally, there is the old adage in sports that a team has to pay its dues before finally winning the big one. We have seen it in the NBA and the NFL for many years, but there are also the exceptions. Most recently, the Warriors winning their first title caught fire that year. The Raptors a couple of years ago got lots of breaks on their way to winning it all. In the NFL, the Niners got all the way to the SB but they didn’t have to go through any teams that had recently been there. The Falcons also did it a few years ago, but that team had paid its dues. The AFC has been a different animal because all roads went through Brady and the Pats, and the teams that got to the SB often had to beat them to get there. Is KC now that team, or was last year a one off? I’m betting on the former.
That is very big of you to come and apologize to all forum brothers and sisters here looking to do one thing and that is win some money from our books.We all have a difference of opinion but we share our picks and thoughts to the games no matter what sport.I wish you and family well brother it is a crazy world we live in today and for sometime to come unfortunately. I wish you well on your KC bet but I see this team the Buffalo Bills on a mission to get to that Superbowl and without Patrick they are not getting beaten by Henne that is my opinion though
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That is very big of you to come and apologize to all forum brothers and sisters here looking to do one thing and that is win some money from our books.We all have a difference of opinion but we share our picks and thoughts to the games no matter what sport.I wish you and family well brother it is a crazy world we live in today and for sometime to come unfortunately. I wish you well on your KC bet but I see this team the Buffalo Bills on a mission to get to that Superbowl and without Patrick they are not getting beaten by Henne that is my opinion though
We saw the difference in the Chiefs offense in the first half when Mahomes was hobbling around. Definitely affected some of his throws. And then missing most of the second half, Chiefs fans realize how lucky they were to escape with a victory. That's the unknown going into every game, injuries. Without Mahomes this is a much different team, sorry Henne. And you could certainly say the same thing about the Bills and Josh Allen. Some players are just irreplaceable, and those are two of them. Here's hoping Mahomes is healthy, even Bills fan would want that too I would think. We want to beat you at your best.
"I'm afraid all we may have done is awakened a sleeping giant."
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We saw the difference in the Chiefs offense in the first half when Mahomes was hobbling around. Definitely affected some of his throws. And then missing most of the second half, Chiefs fans realize how lucky they were to escape with a victory. That's the unknown going into every game, injuries. Without Mahomes this is a much different team, sorry Henne. And you could certainly say the same thing about the Bills and Josh Allen. Some players are just irreplaceable, and those are two of them. Here's hoping Mahomes is healthy, even Bills fan would want that too I would think. We want to beat you at your best.
Great post BB. Hope you pull through these times Sir Just curious why you wouldn’t wait to place the bet till later in the week? as you have been an advocate of smartly waiting till game day this year. Or is that what you are planning to do, waiting till game day to place the bet? Good luck
Im leaning Chiefs as well, but want to hear more on Mahomes foot and how he practices on it
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Great post BB. Hope you pull through these times Sir Just curious why you wouldn’t wait to place the bet till later in the week? as you have been an advocate of smartly waiting till game day this year. Or is that what you are planning to do, waiting till game day to place the bet? Good luck
Im leaning Chiefs as well, but want to hear more on Mahomes foot and how he practices on it
Thanks for chiming in, buddy. The short answer is I think he plays. Not worried about that or his ankle as much as Covid, but I’m willing to risk it because of the value. If Mahomes doesn’t play can you imagine the pressure on Buffalo?! And the Chiefs, with all those stud players, will be out to prove they are not a one man team. They will be the ultimate nobody believes in us team. And the books will rake in the dough on the Bills, until all their coffers are filled and then....
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@ROCKON
Thank you, I appreciate the kind thoughts.
@mrusso
Thanks. Always a class act. Love your writeups.
@pa2918
Thanks for chiming in, buddy. The short answer is I think he plays. Not worried about that or his ankle as much as Covid, but I’m willing to risk it because of the value. If Mahomes doesn’t play can you imagine the pressure on Buffalo?! And the Chiefs, with all those stud players, will be out to prove they are not a one man team. They will be the ultimate nobody believes in us team. And the books will rake in the dough on the Bills, until all their coffers are filled and then....
Hey bud...I'm very sorry for what you're up against this year....I feel for you, especially not being able to visit your dad.
I'm not gonna argue with you, but if your user ID has anything to do with you deciding, as you say, to get serious and study and not just depend on the best and brightest here (not sarcasm...there's a lot of really good cappers here), then the principles of bankroll management would absolutely
SHOUT ATCHA...what the hell are ya doin?!?!?! You don't manage your BR all season to go all in on a game like this --- especially with your QB not yet cleared to play and with Clyde and Sammy W not sure to play. I' sure Mahomes is gonna be there, but c'mon man...wait til the picture clears up...if you're gonna play the KC ML you can wait, but...seriously.
Whatever you do...we appreciate your candor and we're sorry. Life has a way of doing that (did it to me a few years ago).
All the best to you!
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@BeginnerBoy
Hey bud...I'm very sorry for what you're up against this year....I feel for you, especially not being able to visit your dad.
I'm not gonna argue with you, but if your user ID has anything to do with you deciding, as you say, to get serious and study and not just depend on the best and brightest here (not sarcasm...there's a lot of really good cappers here), then the principles of bankroll management would absolutely
SHOUT ATCHA...what the hell are ya doin?!?!?! You don't manage your BR all season to go all in on a game like this --- especially with your QB not yet cleared to play and with Clyde and Sammy W not sure to play. I' sure Mahomes is gonna be there, but c'mon man...wait til the picture clears up...if you're gonna play the KC ML you can wait, but...seriously.
Whatever you do...we appreciate your candor and we're sorry. Life has a way of doing that (did it to me a few years ago).
you went from picking against KC in the Superbowl now to backing them in the AFC Championship a year later. whats goin on my brotha??
jk bud. condolences to your loved ones. i've lost a coworker to covid and some friends have had bouts with it too but survived. crazy times we live in hang in there BB
Sip on that plus money honey!
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you went from picking against KC in the Superbowl now to backing them in the AFC Championship a year later. whats goin on my brotha??
jk bud. condolences to your loved ones. i've lost a coworker to covid and some friends have had bouts with it too but survived. crazy times we live in hang in there BB
Sincere condolences bb I lost my Mom in November of 2020 from a seven year battle from Alzheimers, and it's never easy losing a loved one. You and I spar back and forth but we are united for our love of sports. Blessings to you're family.
Thank you. I’m sorry about your mom. I enjoy the banter. Good luck with your plays this week!
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Quote Originally Posted by CanadaCup:
Sincere condolences bb I lost my Mom in November of 2020 from a seven year battle from Alzheimers, and it's never easy losing a loved one. You and I spar back and forth but we are united for our love of sports. Blessings to you're family.
Thank you. I’m sorry about your mom. I enjoy the banter. Good luck with your plays this week!
All the best to you and yours BB. It's never easy to watch your loved ones suffer thru tough times while you feel helpless to do anything to ease their pain. Here's to hoping for better days ahead
Banging since 1983
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All the best to you and yours BB. It's never easy to watch your loved ones suffer thru tough times while you feel helpless to do anything to ease their pain. Here's to hoping for better days ahead
@BeginnerBoy Hey bud...I'm very sorry for what you're up against this year....I feel for you, especially not being able to visit your dad. I'm not gonna argue with you, but if your user ID has anything to do with you deciding, as you say, to get serious and study and not just depend on the best and brightest here (not sarcasm...there's a lot of really good cappers here), then the principles of bankroll management would absolutely SHOUT ATCHA...what the hell are ya doin?!?!?! You don't manage your BR all season to go all in on a game like this --- especially with your QB not yet cleared to play and with Clyde and Sammy W not sure to play. I' sure Mahomes is gonna be there, but c'mon man...wait til the picture clears up...if you're gonna play the KC ML you can wait, but...seriously. Whatever you do...we appreciate your candor and we're sorry. Life has a way of doing that (did it to me a few years ago). All the best to you!
Thank you. Terrible bankroll management but because I do this for “fun” my goal each year is to win enough money to have a few grand on a big game that I love and think I have an advantage in. Last year I had 30 units on the Niners to beat the Packers in the NFC Championship, and that didn’t turn out too badly I must say. I bet 10 units of my winnings on the SB and lost. But the big one was the NFC title game. My big bets have usually been on the NFC title game because I follow the NFC more, but this years seems like a crapshoot. And I don’t like the line in the NFC game. So I’ve turned my attention to the AFC. I think I have an edge here. We’ll see.
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Quote Originally Posted by DB51daBEARS:
@BeginnerBoy Hey bud...I'm very sorry for what you're up against this year....I feel for you, especially not being able to visit your dad. I'm not gonna argue with you, but if your user ID has anything to do with you deciding, as you say, to get serious and study and not just depend on the best and brightest here (not sarcasm...there's a lot of really good cappers here), then the principles of bankroll management would absolutely SHOUT ATCHA...what the hell are ya doin?!?!?! You don't manage your BR all season to go all in on a game like this --- especially with your QB not yet cleared to play and with Clyde and Sammy W not sure to play. I' sure Mahomes is gonna be there, but c'mon man...wait til the picture clears up...if you're gonna play the KC ML you can wait, but...seriously. Whatever you do...we appreciate your candor and we're sorry. Life has a way of doing that (did it to me a few years ago). All the best to you!
Thank you. Terrible bankroll management but because I do this for “fun” my goal each year is to win enough money to have a few grand on a big game that I love and think I have an advantage in. Last year I had 30 units on the Niners to beat the Packers in the NFC Championship, and that didn’t turn out too badly I must say. I bet 10 units of my winnings on the SB and lost. But the big one was the NFC title game. My big bets have usually been on the NFC title game because I follow the NFC more, but this years seems like a crapshoot. And I don’t like the line in the NFC game. So I’ve turned my attention to the AFC. I think I have an edge here. We’ll see.
Put down my dog, lost my dad, and lost a friend all in 2020. None were covid related but wtf...life goes fast. Hang in there. Did you all ready place the bet BB?
Sorry to hear, buddy. Wow. I’d say let’s grab a drink, but we can’t.
I put in the bet. Love the spot. Love getting the SB champs at home for a buck fifty on the ml. Love all the narrative around Mahomes and Buffalo having to prepare for two QBs and anything and everything Reid will throw their way. Love how KC is on a terrible ATS streak, despite the wins, and Buffalo look like world beaters that can’t lose. Love the mind games the books are playing with the public. I even like KC to win without Mahomes.
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Quote Originally Posted by undermysac:
Put down my dog, lost my dad, and lost a friend all in 2020. None were covid related but wtf...life goes fast. Hang in there. Did you all ready place the bet BB?
Sorry to hear, buddy. Wow. I’d say let’s grab a drink, but we can’t.
I put in the bet. Love the spot. Love getting the SB champs at home for a buck fifty on the ml. Love all the narrative around Mahomes and Buffalo having to prepare for two QBs and anything and everything Reid will throw their way. Love how KC is on a terrible ATS streak, despite the wins, and Buffalo look like world beaters that can’t lose. Love the mind games the books are playing with the public. I even like KC to win without Mahomes.
I agree with the play. But with the slight chance that he doesn't play, the line will do a 180. In that case I'd rather want a few units on kc at plus odds then be stuck with the huge bet at heavy odds.
I'm pretty certain he plays though. There's no way the books would even offer a line for such a prolific player coming off a concussion.
Good Luck
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@begginerboy
I agree with the play. But with the slight chance that he doesn't play, the line will do a 180. In that case I'd rather want a few units on kc at plus odds then be stuck with the huge bet at heavy odds.
I'm pretty certain he plays though. There's no way the books would even offer a line for such a prolific player coming off a concussion.
Put down my dog, lost my dad, and lost a friend all in 2020. None were covid related but wtf...life goes fast. Hang in there. Did you all ready place the bet BB?
I had to put down a dog two weeks ago. Fucking sucks. He was almost 15. Got to have one last Christmas though. He always loved Christmas. He loved napping under the tree.
R.I.P. #94 MARSHAWN KNEELAND - DC4L
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Quote Originally Posted by undermysac:
Put down my dog, lost my dad, and lost a friend all in 2020. None were covid related but wtf...life goes fast. Hang in there. Did you all ready place the bet BB?
I had to put down a dog two weeks ago. Fucking sucks. He was almost 15. Got to have one last Christmas though. He always loved Christmas. He loved napping under the tree.
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