The case for KC: Championship Writeup

Thanks, fellas.

Should we go all in again?! I am not done feeling suicidal and going all in is the closest thing right now for me.

Brady wil have to beat Brees/Payton, Rodgers/LaFleur and Mahomes/Reid to win the championship! He got lucky twice. Will the luck continue?

Yup 20 years of luck ....sure .... Not one skill does he ever possess 

Brady is 2-0 vs Andy Reid in the play offs 

Brady is 1-0 vs maholms in the playoffs 

Brady will not peacefully retire until he gets one ring without Belichek 

Tampa is 5-1 ATS againts the Chiefs in recent match ups after 1999 

And now they gonna stride into Tampa and win by more than 4 cause they beat a less experienced QB and Team against the Bills convincingly 

Brady just won 3 games on the road vs two elite QB with breese and rodgers 

I dont think tampa is scared of the Chiefs or intimidated one bit 

What he said above

BB,

Hang in there with life's challenges.

Remember, brady wins he has 7 rings( MJ 6) in the modern era and the 'do it with out Bill Belicheat is real for TB12.

Thanks, buddy. I appreciate it. Huge motivation for TB and everyone else involved in this game. But here is how I see things. In the game against the Saints, Payton outcoached Arians but TB outplayed the washed up Brees. That was the difference in the game. Against the Packers, Rodgers outplayed TB but Arians outcoached LaFleur. That was the difference in that game. Now we expect TB to either outplay Mahomes and/or Arians to outcoach Reid for Tampa to win. It ain’t gonna happen. Now can they get lucky by winning the turnover battle? Yes. But unlike the Saints and GB the Chiefs can overcome that deficit, as they did today after spotting the Bills 9 points. Tampa will have to play its best game to win and hope KC is playing below their best. 

  Kc is going to have to play their best game. Vs Brady and Road dogs who are now home. 

Kc is last in Redzone defense. That has to bite them in the ass in the biggest game. 

Antonio Brown will play, I assume.

@begginerboy

 Hope all goes well with you and your close ones

Didn't know you were on the Chiefs as well after the chat we had. I liked your take on this game. 

Nice win

@begginerboy

What is Brady's record vs. a Spags defense???  I can't remember how Tom seems to play when he has an all-pro interior lineman blowing up his grill

@begginerboy

 Mahomes is not going to lose to the Buccs 

This may seem simple minded, or elementary in a sense when it comes to handicapping, but it resonates to me.

At this stage, the best 2 teams have made it all the way, sooooo many things are arguably equal on both teams. We can argue about this n that, stats, ypp, schemes, injuries etc till we are blue in the face.

BB points out the 2 most important factors, QB and coaching. This will be the difference.

This is like dejavu around here from last year's Niners game.... same blah blah blah... agreed 

@begginerboy

 sent friend request, would love a private discussion about super bowl before i make a post. Looking forward to the convo

@begginerboy

 If you look at Tampa's last 2 gamelogs/team stats in detail, it looks similar to the Bills in the thread you started that the "Bills won 2 games they had no business winning"

It's not as bad as the Bills lopsided #'s, but similar. TB could of lost their last 2 if a couple things went differently.

Just heard an eye popping stat. Patrick Mahomes is 25-1 in his last 26 starts.

I was trying to tell the dopes just this (except it was 24-1) who all were saying KC "isn't as motivated" to win... both vs. Browns and Bills 

They've been preaching the "run it back" mantra since last March...their one regular season goal was to win that #1 seed and ONLY bye.  It wasn't to "cover 9 games in a row and lose in the divisional round".  So they let their foot off the gas peddle in the 2H of the season...so what, they have plenty of gas left in the tank now for the Super Bowl 

@kcblitzkrieg

 Speaking of dejavu man...I remember this time last year watching the Chiefs and Titans playoff game with my dad, in his hospital room. He went to a nursing home a few days later and was there for about 3 weeks. He got better and went home but still needed a lot of attention from us(family). In June he had a heart attack and passed.

In such tough times, sports were always an escape.

Thanks, buddy. I’ll check and respond when I get a chance. 

I was going to mention this in my eventual writeup but that’s how I see it also. The Buccaneers are the Bills of the NFC in terms of playoff “luck.” Bad coaching by Reich, bad coaching by LaFleur. Turnover by Ravens, turnover by Saints, etc. The great thing about the Chiefs is they can overcome turnovers, with ease, as we saw yesterday and last year’s playoff run. Not many teams can get over the the damage of a turnover, but the Chiefs get right back up and go to work. They even involve the guy who caused the turnover to build up his confidence. Meanwhile, the Packers simply sat their gifted running back on the bench after his turnover. No one came near him or tried to build him back up so he could contribute later. 

That fumble by Aaron Jones was as much fault of his as the DB making a tremendous hit on him to cause the fumble.

Football aside..prayers to you my friend. I know the heartaches you talk about. 

@undermysac

@StumpTownStu

@Wizerguy

 Thank you, fellas. I appreciate it. The losses we experience betting cannot begin to compare to these real life losses. Today I’m heading out to see my aunt with the cancer who is in hospice care. Found out last night that she only has a couple of weeks of life left. She is a treasure. She was a school teacher and I credit her for saving me when I was a young lad struggling in school. I don’t how I’m going to say goodbye, but goodbye it’s gotta be. 

@begginerboy

 Sorry about your misfortune with life at the moment, that sucks bad man my condolences.  As far as the SB, Chiefs are a better team all around.  TB will not have an answer for Mahomes, Kelce, Hill.  KC defense steps up in big games. KC rolls and begins their dynasty!

There have been 7 games since 2007 of Spagnuolo vs Tom Brady. Here I include the 2013 and 2014 Ravens where Spags was a Senior Defensive Assistant/Secondary coach.

Spags 3-4 SU

Points allowed per game=25.85

Brady:

175/280 passing

1,934 passing yards, 276.28 ypg

14 TD, 5 INT, 15 Sacks

AVG QBR=90.13

Now without the 2 Ravens games, where he was the true DC in these games:

Spags 3-2 SU

Points allowed per game=23.80

Brady:

133/209 passing

1,470 passing yards, 294 ypg

9 TD, 4 INT, 13 SACKS

AVG QBR=90.30

Those stats make it a 50/50 proposition but I’m not sure they tell the whole story. I was very skeptical of Spag last year, but after the Niner game he made me a believer. The man has a great feel for the game and an uncanny ability to bring the heat at the most important moments of a game. He did it again last night to Allen. He let the Bills drive and drive and just when they were in striking distance, he’d unleash the fury. He also got the Browns to punt the ball in their last drive by bringing pressure at just the right time. Hard to quantify that with numbers. 

"9 TD, 4 INT, 13 SACKS"

^doing that to Brady is a win for any DC 

"Points allowed per game=23.80"

The Chiefs this year have averaged 29.60 ppg on offense

Still, there's a lot to mull over. I might not even have a bet in this game when all said and done. SRS and DVOA say that the Bucs are the better team. But like we talked about earlier, what does any of this crap really mean at this point?

Best of Luck BB