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suuma's NFL week seventeen «» The battle of Buffalo

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Posted: #101
Quote Originally Posted by JerryWrasse:

Yea McCoy is doubtful to play. Bradham, Dareus, Darby, and Rambo are all banged up. Gilmore got ir'd. Clay got ir'd. 
Maybe my memory is off but the only notable thurs night inactives were Antonio Cromartie and Kyle Wiliams. Brandon Marshall was hobbled and had a terrible night anyways. Ivory was playing like a bum 55 carries for 84 yards over weeks 8-10. 

This time around things appear to be different. Bills have surrendered over 100 yards rushing the last 5 weeks. Ivory looks decent, but hasn't run well in 2 weeks. Powell is expected to sit.

We can talk about the advantage the jets have on the ground but i would be more than surprised if they don't show a lot of 4 wr sets and try and spread the bills defense wide. 


Since the last matchup, the Bills lost the following players:

Alex Carrington (rotational DL)
Kyle Williams
Stephone Gilmore
Nigel Bradham
LeSean McCoy
Robert Woods
Seantrel Henderson
Charles Clay
Marcus Easley (backup)
Marcell Dareus Q
Ron Brooks (backup)

Robert Woods, Charles Clay & LeSean McCoy combined for 13 of the Bills' 17 completions in the first game. They were responsible for 118 of the 158 passing yards. They are all out.

I capped this game with Tyrod Taylor in 100% mode, so with designed run plays. Rex Ryan said Taylor might not run at all and will be staying in the pocket which is bad news for the Bills offense. So I am asking again, how are they going to score on this Jets defense?
 
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Posted: #102
Quote Originally Posted by Zander47:

It is true, they are much better from a general perspective. Rams have always played them tough. 


Than we had a miscommunication. I always look at matchups, not two teams in general.
 
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Posted: #103
Quote Originally Posted by JerryWrasse:

Yea McCoy is doubtful to play. Bradham, Dareus, Darby, and Rambo are all banged up. Gilmore got ir'd. Clay got ir'd. 
Maybe my memory is off but the only notable thurs night inactives were Antonio Cromartie and Kyle Wiliams. Brandon Marshall was hobbled and had a terrible night anyways. Ivory was playing like a bum 55 carries for 84 yards over weeks 8-10. 

This time around things appear to be different. Bills have surrendered over 100 yards rushing the last 5 weeks. Ivory looks decent, but hasn't run well in 2 weeks. Powell is expected to sit.

We can talk about the advantage the jets have on the ground but i would be more than surprised if they don't show a lot of 4 wr sets and try and spread the bills defense wide. 


They might have surrendered over 100 yards rushing the last 5 weeks but they went 2-3. So where is the advantage? Like I mentioned a lot of times, running doesn't put you points on the board. You run when you win, not win when you run. This is something Rex Ryan doesn't understand. They face the best run D in the league tomorrow.

Ivory wasn't running well because they played two very good front sevens. Tell me any RBs who ran wild on the Patriots or Cowboys with Sean Lee this year. The Bills' front seven is a joke right now.
 
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Posted: #104
Quote Originally Posted by Achilles1629:

I have read every post in this thread and this is a very intriguing game indeed. I want to point out a few things though: you mean to tell me off a win against NE AND A CHANCE TO CLINCH A PLAYOFF SPOT, the jets are only a 2.5 favorite? You take home field away from buffalo and the jets are only about a 5 or 6 favorite on a neutral field? Hmmmm. Also, the bills are banged up, big time yet that is definitely not factored into this line. I can't think that the "Rex Ryan factor" makes this game a 2.5 game in favor of the jets. In my eyes, after beating new england last week, it should be at least 5 or 6 in favor of the jets. The line hasn't even moved all week. The whole world is on the jets, rightfully so but why no line movement? Im no genius but that is weird in such a big game. 

Lastly, last week the jets got theirs against New England. We can pretend that New England got beat up but they aren't healthy and with Miami on deck, they didn't go all in. The jets won, I give it to them.  Pittsburgh, last week, after coming back to beat Denver the week before lays an egg against Baltimore, a team that beat them In Pittsburgh already. Youd think Pitt would have remembered that, right? To the amateur bettor though, they feel Pitt just got outplayed, right? Yeah ok. They got beat by Ryan Mallett.......Baltimore.....maybe the worst secondary in the league; they hold Pitt under 20?! What I'm getting at is this: I feel this could be a HUUUUUUUGE trap for jets backers becuase they just aren't supposed to get in, Pittsburgh is. Pittsburgh is due for a gift this week after obeying the lopsided bloodbath they and black and yellow backers took. I get it guys, what I just said is a minority type angle especially to suuma who plays games straight up ( I respect that and his capping and he is one of the best). I am on the other side in that I feel there is a bigger picture when it comes to this chess game, the NFL. If this line sticks at -2.5, with McCoy not playing and Rex already beating the jets, is this a gift? Well....as we all know nothing gets handed to anyone in this league and usually when it's too good to be true, it is. I'm gonna watch this line movement- right now all signs point to the jets but it's too good to be true. I thought I would mention this too; I thought this was interesting: there is an NFL commercial that shows the steelers three times in it along with other teams who have all clinched playoff spots. What is the commercial about? The NFL PLAYOFFS. It plays no bearing on my picks but it is very interesting....... GL TO ALL


Thanks for your post. Line movement is based on bookies attempt to even out the action. I don't know why everyone says the whole world is on the Jets. When I go through different forums, I see 75% of the picks on the Bills. Just because some consensus sites show a huge discrepancy in the amount of picks, it doesn't mean the money is uneven.

Remember the Cardinals playing at Detroit?  I guess the Cardinals were -3 or -4 and everyone said it would be a trap. The Cards won 42-17 fairly easily. There are no trap lines. 99% of the people who use the words "trap", "square", "sharp", "public", "rigged", "fix" don't have a consistent, documented winning record over a solid sample size on here. That's a fact. But I can tell you 20 great cappers with consistent 55-70% records who never use these words but cap the matchups.

A lot of people are on the Bills because Rex Ryan already beat the Jets and they believe it's the same old Jets team. Even if the Jets lose, it wasn't a trap. But people will say that because want to think that.
 
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Posted: #105
Quote Originally Posted by suuma:



I capped this game with Tyrod Taylor in 100% mode, so with designed run plays. Rex Ryan said Taylor might not run at all and will be staying in the pocket which is bad news for the Bills offense. So I am asking again, how are they going to score on this Jets defense?

Do you honestly believe this? Rex can jump up on the podium and stomp his fit while yelling it and it doesn't make it true. This week Tyrod Taylor made a comment along the lines of making plays with his feet if the receiving option isn't there. Which one are we going call a liar? In week 17 it sounds more like coach speak. They might have even of told him not to run, but realistically is the dynamic, and often instinctual, part of his game just going to change?

 And running may not put point on the boards but it helps open up offenses for marginal qb's like Fitzpatrick. Over 100 yards he past 5 weeks was meant to support that the Jets should be able to run just fine. The biggest advantage the Jets will have is spreading them out with 4/5 wide. Pretty easy to see why you like the Jets.   

Obviously we are capping the game differently. I can point out the glaring disadvantages. There is a reason the line is at 2.5/3 and its not to entice the public. Taylor and McCoy both had serviceable games in wk 10. Karlos Williams isn't this huge drop off from McCoy. Bills have pretty good interior linemen which matches up with the strength of the Jets Def. We see the coaching and mental aspects differently. 
 
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Posted: #106
Quote Originally Posted by JerryWrasse:


Do you honestly believe this? Rex can jump up on the podium and stomp his fit while yelling it and it doesn't make it true. This week Tyrod Taylor made a comment along the lines of making plays with his feet if the receiving option isn't there. Which one are we going call a liar? In week 17 it sounds more like coach speak. They might have even of told him not to run, but realistically is the dynamic, and often instinctual, part of his game just going to change?

 And running may not put point on the boards but it helps open up offenses for marginal qb's like Fitzpatrick. Over 100 yards he past 5 weeks was meant to support that the Jets should be able to run just fine. The biggest advantage the Jets will have is spreading them out with 4/5 wide. Pretty easy to see why you like the Jets.   

Obviously we are capping the game differently. I can point out the glaring disadvantages. There is a reason the line is at 2.5/3 and its not to entice the public. Taylor and McCoy both had serviceable games in wk 10. Karlos Williams isn't this huge drop off from McCoy. Bills have pretty good interior linemen which matches up with the strength of the Jets Def. We see the coaching and mental aspects differently. 


Anyway, we are having a good discussion and that's what it's all about on here

Regarding the interior linemen: this offensive line got crushed in week 10. Taylor got sacked 4 times for a loss of 26 yards and if it wasn't for his scrambling, it would have been 6 times. Their adjusted sack rate is 8.5% which ranks #27 in the NFL. The Jets' pass rush isn't a good matchup for the Bills by any means as their blitzing packages and production from their DL got very hot down the stretch. At the beginning of the season they were very good at pressuring QBs and disturbing the passing lanes, but now they are finally getting stats on the board.
 
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Posted: #107
Jets are back to -3 at some places.
 
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Posted: #108
Quote Originally Posted by suuma:



Anyway, we are having a good discussion and that's what it's all about on here


Yessir. Agree or disagree, always business. Thats what these boards are for. Just like every week gl. 
 
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Posted: #109
[/Quote]Thanks for your post. While I agree on most of the things you have mentioned, I strongly disagree on the bold sentence. Rex Ryan doesn't know how to exploit ANY defense. He didn't know how to exploit the Jets defense in the first game. I believe he tells Greg Roman "Just pound the ball in the first place to show the world we are playing Rex Ryan style. The rest is up to you". The reason the Rams have upset the Seahawks isn't just motivation. It's because they match up brilliantly with the Hawks. Before the season started I predicted a sweep by the Rams over the Seahawks on here. The great matchup in the trenches combined with the injuries on the Hawks team and the movitational angle made this upset look logically.I am still shocked by the Ravens upset. It was their Super Bowl and I believe the Steelers have just prepared wrong on defense. Marc Trestman has put a phenomenal preparation together for Ryan Mallett and they went balling the whole game.I get all your points on the Bills game, it's just that even IF Rex Ryan gets this squad on his side after what happened during the last weeks, he still doesn't have the personnel to bring up a perfect gameplan for this Jets team.[/Quote]

Yeah I can see that Suuma, nice response. I guess even if Rex is incapable of exploiting his former defense, at the very least he should be able to pass that info on to his OC who can then gameplan accordingly. (Again possibly I'm giving Rex too much credit here).

I agree that Buffalo doesn't have the personnel to keep up with NY, but I think I will be staying away from this game all the same. Thanks for the insight!
 
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Posted: #110
Quote Originally Posted by BarrelledIn:

All that nonsense in that wall of text and not a single word was ever read.

Based on the -3 spread in Buff, Jets would be -9 vs. the Bills in NY. Jets were -8 vs Tenn. So Tenn is 1 point better than Buff FUKKING LMAO That's how stupid you are. etc. etc.

    A classic example of "reaction formation."  (A defense mechanism by which one exaggerates the opposite emotional response he actually experiences.)  In this case you obviously have a great respect and admiration for Mr. Suuma, and rightly so.  His analyses are in depth and representative of a great deal of time spent on a vast subject.  He is also mostly right in a field where 58% is regarded as excellent.
    Of course there is always the infinitesimally small chance that my analysis is in error.  In that case you would simply represent a very accurate example of the old saying "showing your behind."




 








 
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Posted: #111
should have read, "showing your aasss."
 
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Posted: #112
Hey suuma, thanks for the insight amigo. We differ in our approach towards the games which is why it's always intriguing to hear your angles. I like em. Regardless though, I follow you a lot, on Twitter as well. Good luck tomorrow and if the jets get in, it should be a tough out for anyone going against them. I prefer Pittsburgh! 
 
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Posted: #113
As always, you make good points.  Let me just say as it relates to the Jags, that I am from J'ville and an enormous fan (ugh) and follow the Jags very closely.  And, their injury list is enormous for this game......they're going to be without Yeldon and Telvin Smith (best player on D), and maybe both OT's.  A lot of other guys are dinged up and the Jags are hinting that they may not be playing.......in other words, it feels like my Jags are tanking the game.  If they lose the game, they could move up in the draft as high as #3.

I think my plan for Week 17 is to adopt your theory and do something with Cincy, Carolina, Houston, and maybe New England.  If Indy figures out who's starting at QB and we get a line, I may add them to the mix.  Teases will be used liberally. (and maybe a small parlay)

Thanks for your help.

Quote Originally Posted by suuma:



Good question. I think big underdogs of 7+ points in week 17 say the teams are weak, so they are losing teams on the season. That's what my point is about. They aren't going to make the playoffs so you have to decide whether they want to secure their draft pick or play for pride or any kind of motivation.

I guess the motivational angle is an important one in week 17.

Regarding the Texans game: Texans are 98% in the playoffs. Will they bring all the effort or will they try to rest some players in the 2nd half? I guess the Jags are fine with their 7th draft pick. They desperately need it. So I wouldn't touch this game at all but would rather take Texans if I had to.
 
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Posted: #114
Suuma help me with all the Rex Ryan talk on here.  Am I missing something about Rex Ryan?  I don think he has done anything as a coach and no way if I was a GM would I give this guy a job as head coach.  He has a big mouth but nothing to show for it.  He is a terrible coach.  Maybe a decent motivator, I guess, but he has been awful as a head coach pretty much everywhere he has been.  I actually lean Jets just because of Rex.
 
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Posted: #115
thanks for discussion...no play in Jets/Bills for me, GL to all partaking
 
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Posted: #116
Quote Originally Posted by BarrelledIn:

All that nonsense in that wall of text and not a single word was ever read.

Based on the -3 spread in Buff, Jets would be -9 vs. the Bills in NY. Jets were -8 vs Tenn. So Tenn is 1 point better than Buff FUKKING LMAO That's how stupid you are.

The line in the first matchup was Jets -2.5 at home. lol they must have improved 6.5 points. The Westgate advanced line last week was Bills -1.5

This pick shows you are nothing more than an overreaction Monday public square with zero understanding of the true nature of the NFL or line value.

Pro tips for everyone that OP doesn't understand:
-Buy low, sell high
-Squares bet teams, sharps bet lines

Jets are at their highest just because they won an OT game vs. Pats. If they lose that game, Bills are probably favored here. OP is also just betting the Jets because they're the Jets, regardless if the line is chit and makes zero sense.

Thanks for the fade







dumbest garbage ever.  you clearly have no idea how a line is set.
 
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Posted: #117
 
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Posted: #118
With you on the Jets Summa 
 
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Posted: #119
Boy I just see this game going the Jets way. They played absolutely horrible in that Thursday night loss, had 4 TO's, gave up a special teams TD and still only lost by 5. Plus NY wasn't playing very good football right then and now they are playing very good football and Buffalo has injuries everywhere they aren't fielding the same team that barely got it done with 4TO's and a special teams TD. I really see this being a match-up nightmare for Buffalo and yes this game could be close like most people think, division rivalry, Rex, etc. but with these injuries and a few other things I see I have a feeling this game could get away from Buffalo and the Jets could run away with this thing, few extra dollars on some big spread wins for me :)  We'll see tomorrow. Weather does scare me a little, snow wouldn't be the worst as long as there aren't big winds.  Side note not a Jet or Bill fan on any level.
 
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Posted: #120
Good morning everybody! If you really believe the Jets are a public/square play, you are living in a dreamland.

Hilton Contest: Bills +3 the number one pick
Several capping forums: 90% on the Bills
Service plays by touts right now 9-1 in favor of the Bills

I've seen this before.


 
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Posted: #121
many times it's who has an edge? The Jets definitely do more today and are on paper a better team..line is where it should be. Buffalo can easily back door this and the Jets just need to win...just see it for what it is and I believe Jets 1H is the only safe play...

I like bounce back and blown your load situations better and Pitt will definitely look solid today as well as Baltimore reverting back to crap while Cinn shows up to try and get a bye...
 
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Posted: #122
Quote Originally Posted by Hoyasaxa:

many times it's who has an edge? The Jets definitely do more today and are on paper a better team..line is where it should be. Buffalo can easily back door this and the Jets just need to win...just see it for what it is and I believe Jets 1H is the only safe play...

I like bounce back and blown your load situations better and Pitt will definitely look solid today as well as Baltimore reverting back to crap while Cinn shows up to try and get a bye...




Completely agree. Still looking into this game.
 
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Posted: #123
Quote Originally Posted by suuma:

Good morning everybody! If you really believe the Jets are a public/square play, you are living in a dreamland.

Hilton Contest: Bills +3 the number one pick
Several capping forums: 90% on the Bills
Service plays by touts right now 9-1 in favor of the Bills

I've seen this before.




Everywhere I check Jets are being pounded by squares at 80%+ both moneyline and spread. Your "sources" are blinding you.
 
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Posted: #124
Quote Originally Posted by fadeORdie:



Everywhere I check Jets are being pounded by squares at 80%+ both moneyline and spread. Your "sources" are blinding you.


Maybe your "sources" are blinding you. I am seeing true picks by "Joe Publics" on forums and touts' picks whose "square" followers are betting it.

Maybe you are using the same sources that told you to bet the Lions +4 versus the Cardinals as a lock? Or the Lions +2.5 over the Vikes as your game of the month?

Good luck today

Maybe you already had the wrong sources when
 
 
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Posted: #125
FadeORdie my friend. If we have learned just ONE thing this season, it's that your fade-the-public talk is pure bullsh*t as you went no better than 50% with your assumptions in my thread. If we count your isolated picks you posted in my thread you went like 2-7 ?!

Congrats on our TCU hit yesterday. I had TCU +7.5 because I was leaning TCU with Boykin playing and thought Bram Kohlhausen can't be bad enough to not cover 7.5 vs. this Ducks offense.

Did someone get the call during halftime?
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