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    All Forums | NFL Betting Forum

    suuma's NFL week seventeen «» The battle of Buffalo

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    suuma
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    suuma
    suuma
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    Posted: Dec. 30, 2015 - 1:59 AM ET #26

    Quote Originally Posted by Jailbait7127:

    hey suuma, big play for you or normal? 

    thx again. you provide one of the best write ups on any sports forum. great job. 


    Standard play for now. May bump it if I get a gut feeling!

    Thanks buddy, BOL this week!
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jailbait7127:

    hey suuma, big play for you or normal? 

    thx again. you provide one of the best write ups on any sports forum. great job. 


    Standard play for now. May bump it if I get a gut feeling!

    Thanks buddy, BOL this week!
     
    suuma
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    Posted: Dec. 30, 2015 - 2:04 AM ET #27

    Quote Originally Posted by scalabrine:

    Another great write up Suuma. I would say your best of the season.

    To add to the above:

    Ryan's revenge game was in NY and he won it. Mission accomplished. Motivation is severely watered down in a lost season for the Bills and you are correct in saying, remarkably, that Ryan has severely downgraded this defense.

    I struggled to get through that brutal Cowboys game where I had the Bills ML. Bills looked COMPLETELY unmotivated and the final score of 16-6 did not do it justice. That was a very close game where only a late turnover lead to a TD to skew the result. Bills could not put it in the end zone no matter how much they tried before that against a Cowboys team that installed underachievers and sat stars (ie coaches want to lose respectably).

    And here's another tidbit which points to the Jets winning...


    Ryan came out at his press conference and said the following:


    "I think part of it now looking at the season, we have, this is not the time. You know with, if we are trying to win a more significant game for us. Obviously that would be, you might consider something else. We want him to be the long term solution at the spot, so he has got to learn to protect himself and understand that we need him to be that."

    If they are going to inhibit Taylor's ability to run, they will lose for certain. Even suggesting such a thing publicly and planting a seed in Taylor's head making him throw (not his strength when it's his primary option) is a bad thing.

    There was a 4 game stretch this season where Taylor ran 24 times (low for him on average). Bills went 1-3.

    Also, Mario Williams, an alleged defensive 'big dog' is compeltely nonexistent on defense.

    He played 54 snaps vs the Cowboys and didn't register a single tackle, assisted tackle, hurry or QB pressure of any kind. Zero's on the entire stat line.

    Bills have really struggled down the stretch and to come out with all this motivation in a season that's down the hopper is to gamble on something that won't  be there in full (what is needed to win against this Jets team), especially as players are more than disgruntled with how Rex and his schemes have watered down their defensive stats tremendously. 

    Try to compare this game to Rex returning to his old stomping grounds at MetLife with a healthier team and one that benefited from timely turnovers and in a game where the Bills were more than alive for the playoffs. The two games just don't compare as the Jets come off a highly emotional win, but one where they still control their density and their mission of the playoffs is still not accomplished to counter that.

    I will be backing the Jets with you with a very reasonable line.












    Great stuff, scal! Cannot agree more here.
    If Taylor will be forced to stay in the pocket, it's going to be a long day for the Bills offense.
    Let's get them Jets
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    Quote Originally Posted by scalabrine:

    Another great write up Suuma. I would say your best of the season.

    To add to the above:

    Ryan's revenge game was in NY and he won it. Mission accomplished. Motivation is severely watered down in a lost season for the Bills and you are correct in saying, remarkably, that Ryan has severely downgraded this defense.

    I struggled to get through that brutal Cowboys game where I had the Bills ML. Bills looked COMPLETELY unmotivated and the final score of 16-6 did not do it justice. That was a very close game where only a late turnover lead to a TD to skew the result. Bills could not put it in the end zone no matter how much they tried before that against a Cowboys team that installed underachievers and sat stars (ie coaches want to lose respectably).

    And here's another tidbit which points to the Jets winning...


    Ryan came out at his press conference and said the following:


    "I think part of it now looking at the season, we have, this is not the time. You know with, if we are trying to win a more significant game for us. Obviously that would be, you might consider something else. We want him to be the long term solution at the spot, so he has got to learn to protect himself and understand that we need him to be that."

    If they are going to inhibit Taylor's ability to run, they will lose for certain. Even suggesting such a thing publicly and planting a seed in Taylor's head making him throw (not his strength when it's his primary option) is a bad thing.

    There was a 4 game stretch this season where Taylor ran 24 times (low for him on average). Bills went 1-3.

    Also, Mario Williams, an alleged defensive 'big dog' is compeltely nonexistent on defense.

    He played 54 snaps vs the Cowboys and didn't register a single tackle, assisted tackle, hurry or QB pressure of any kind. Zero's on the entire stat line.

    Bills have really struggled down the stretch and to come out with all this motivation in a season that's down the hopper is to gamble on something that won't  be there in full (what is needed to win against this Jets team), especially as players are more than disgruntled with how Rex and his schemes have watered down their defensive stats tremendously. 

    Try to compare this game to Rex returning to his old stomping grounds at MetLife with a healthier team and one that benefited from timely turnovers and in a game where the Bills were more than alive for the playoffs. The two games just don't compare as the Jets come off a highly emotional win, but one where they still control their density and their mission of the playoffs is still not accomplished to counter that.

    I will be backing the Jets with you with a very reasonable line.












    Great stuff, scal! Cannot agree more here.
    If Taylor will be forced to stay in the pocket, it's going to be a long day for the Bills offense.
    Let's get them Jets
     
    suuma
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    Posted: Dec. 30, 2015 - 2:11 AM ET #28

    Quote Originally Posted by totallypsycho:

    jets are going to lose trust me

    if the bills are so unmotivated unhealthy un-everything WHY DID THE LINE ONLY START AT A PK?! 


    On my side of the world it opened between -1.5 and -3 at several places.
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    Quote Originally Posted by totallypsycho:

    jets are going to lose trust me

    if the bills are so unmotivated unhealthy un-everything WHY DID THE LINE ONLY START AT A PK?! 


    On my side of the world it opened between -1.5 and -3 at several places.
     
    suuma
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    Posted: Dec. 30, 2015 - 2:12 AM ET #29

    Quote Originally Posted by AFNfootballnerd:

    Because they want everybody to pound the jets...the value will be with the bills once the line moves to +3.5 and higher possibly....if jets get a win its gonna be by 3 only or bills win straight up.


    Do you follow the script?
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    Quote Originally Posted by AFNfootballnerd:

    Because they want everybody to pound the jets...the value will be with the bills once the line moves to +3.5 and higher possibly....if jets get a win its gonna be by 3 only or bills win straight up.


    Do you follow the script?
     
    suuma
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    Posted: Dec. 30, 2015 - 2:14 AM ET #30

    Quote Originally Posted by BarrelledIn:

    Clown horn tooting








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    Quote Originally Posted by BarrelledIn:

    Clown horn tooting








     
    suuma
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    Posted: Dec. 30, 2015 - 2:41 AM ET #31

    Quote Originally Posted by Biscuit:

    I appreciate the write up.  

    I had the Rams + pts last weekend.   (Too bad I didn't take the ML).    Anyway, I took the Rams because they have been a tough matchup for the Hawks the past few years.   The Rams have a great front 7, and they match up well vs Hawks, who have a mediocre OL.

    Similarly, the Bills seem to match up well vs the Jets.   I'm not sure why, because I don't follow the AFC East teams as much as I follow NFC teams.   But I noticed that the Bills have won 5 of the last 6 meetings vs Jets, by a combined score of 188-76.  

    Why have the Bills been able to dominate the Jets over the past several years?  

    The Jets are the better team, and should be fully focused to win this game.....but the Bills could prove to be a tough opponent, because they possess the confidence that comes with beating a division opponent 5 out of 6 times.

    BOL




    Thanks for your comment. Great question and I want to give my input:

    Over the past three years starting in 2011, the Bills have built a very good defense with some good draft picks like Stephon Gilmore, Nigel Bradham, Marcell Dareus, Aaron Williams, Da'Norris Searchy, Kiko Alonso, Preston Brown.

    Since their last playoff appearance, the Jets have been declining, defensively but especially offensively. That's why the Bills matched up so well with the Jets in recent years. If you had an average or below average QB play, the Bills have made you one-dimensional. The peak was last season when the Jets committed 6 turnovers in the first game (scalabrine can sing a song) and were totally dismantled in the second game. Under Rex Ryan, the Jets have been a terrible inconstistent Football team and the Bills were able to take advantage of that. So it's no surprise the Bills were able to win 3/4 in 2013 and 2014 when they made Geno Smith, who had no good support by the coaching staff, look like a fool without a good receiving corps.

    The fifth game is what I talked about in my write-up. It's part of our hobby to read these spots and get the most of it. The Jets were in a terrible spot. That's why you sometimes see two completely different games between two division rivals in one season. The Falcons lost 0-38 at Carolina but beat them straight up on Sunday. Broncos got a lucky win over KC in the first game because the Chiefs had a turnover-festival (like the Jets in week 10 vs. the Bills) but in the second game, the Broncos got totally dominated like they should have been in game one.

    This year, Jets and Bills were heading into opposite directions. Without Rex Ryan, the Bills would have been a true playoff contender throughout the season. Bills fans probably don't want to hear that because they had high expectations. But he turned this defense into complete garbage. The front seven which was their premium last season is non-existent. This season their adjusted sack rate is 3.7% which is dead-last in the league. Last season they were the best team at 8.8%.

    The only chance to contain the Jets' offense who have scored a league-high 2+ offensive TDs in every game this season, is to get pressure on Fitzpatrick by exploiting the weak spots on the offensive line. LT D'Brickshaw Ferguson has been declining this season, he is still very good against bull-rushes but he struggled a bit with speedy, athletic edge rushers. After the injury of RG Willie Colon, the right side has been the weak side because RT Brian Giacomini isn't a franchise Tackle and RG Brian Winters is average. The Bills don't have the pass rush this season to exploit this offensive line, that's why the Jets are going to score at will. Rex Ryan likes to drop seven in zone coverage, but the Jets have Eric Decker who is a great slot/flat/cross route runner. Fitzpatrick and him are going to find the soft spots between the zones.


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    Quote Originally Posted by Biscuit:

    I appreciate the write up.  

    I had the Rams + pts last weekend.   (Too bad I didn't take the ML).    Anyway, I took the Rams because they have been a tough matchup for the Hawks the past few years.   The Rams have a great front 7, and they match up well vs Hawks, who have a mediocre OL.

    Similarly, the Bills seem to match up well vs the Jets.   I'm not sure why, because I don't follow the AFC East teams as much as I follow NFC teams.   But I noticed that the Bills have won 5 of the last 6 meetings vs Jets, by a combined score of 188-76.  

    Why have the Bills been able to dominate the Jets over the past several years?  

    The Jets are the better team, and should be fully focused to win this game.....but the Bills could prove to be a tough opponent, because they possess the confidence that comes with beating a division opponent 5 out of 6 times.

    BOL




    Thanks for your comment. Great question and I want to give my input:

    Over the past three years starting in 2011, the Bills have built a very good defense with some good draft picks like Stephon Gilmore, Nigel Bradham, Marcell Dareus, Aaron Williams, Da'Norris Searchy, Kiko Alonso, Preston Brown.

    Since their last playoff appearance, the Jets have been declining, defensively but especially offensively. That's why the Bills matched up so well with the Jets in recent years. If you had an average or below average QB play, the Bills have made you one-dimensional. The peak was last season when the Jets committed 6 turnovers in the first game (scalabrine can sing a song) and were totally dismantled in the second game. Under Rex Ryan, the Jets have been a terrible inconstistent Football team and the Bills were able to take advantage of that. So it's no surprise the Bills were able to win 3/4 in 2013 and 2014 when they made Geno Smith, who had no good support by the coaching staff, look like a fool without a good receiving corps.

    The fifth game is what I talked about in my write-up. It's part of our hobby to read these spots and get the most of it. The Jets were in a terrible spot. That's why you sometimes see two completely different games between two division rivals in one season. The Falcons lost 0-38 at Carolina but beat them straight up on Sunday. Broncos got a lucky win over KC in the first game because the Chiefs had a turnover-festival (like the Jets in week 10 vs. the Bills) but in the second game, the Broncos got totally dominated like they should have been in game one.

    This year, Jets and Bills were heading into opposite directions. Without Rex Ryan, the Bills would have been a true playoff contender throughout the season. Bills fans probably don't want to hear that because they had high expectations. But he turned this defense into complete garbage. The front seven which was their premium last season is non-existent. This season their adjusted sack rate is 3.7% which is dead-last in the league. Last season they were the best team at 8.8%.

    The only chance to contain the Jets' offense who have scored a league-high 2+ offensive TDs in every game this season, is to get pressure on Fitzpatrick by exploiting the weak spots on the offensive line. LT D'Brickshaw Ferguson has been declining this season, he is still very good against bull-rushes but he struggled a bit with speedy, athletic edge rushers. After the injury of RG Willie Colon, the right side has been the weak side because RT Brian Giacomini isn't a franchise Tackle and RG Brian Winters is average. The Bills don't have the pass rush this season to exploit this offensive line, that's why the Jets are going to score at will. Rex Ryan likes to drop seven in zone coverage, but the Jets have Eric Decker who is a great slot/flat/cross route runner. Fitzpatrick and him are going to find the soft spots between the zones.


     
    suuma
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    Posted: Dec. 30, 2015 - 2:44 AM ET #32

    Quote Originally Posted by BETPITTSBURGH:

    Sorry but i just can not see the Jets winning 6 games in a row ..


    No one saw the Chiefs winning 9 in a row.

    No one saw the Panthers winning 17 in a row.


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    Quote Originally Posted by BETPITTSBURGH:

    Sorry but i just can not see the Jets winning 6 games in a row ..


    No one saw the Chiefs winning 9 in a row.

    No one saw the Panthers winning 17 in a row.


     
    suuma
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    Posted: Dec. 30, 2015 - 2:45 AM ET #33

    Quote Originally Posted by rakets:

    What I don't understand is 1) if you don't agree with Suuma why not just move on to another post and 2) what compels you to berate his pick?  Because you have no following?  Seriously why do these people even come on the thread?  Fricken children who need to have their mama's change their diapers.  Get out of here, I read this non sense because I think someone is making an intelligent point only to find they are bashing.  Like I said, quit wasting my time and get out of here.  Suuma, win or lose on the Jets your handicapping is spot on.  Well done.


    I just ignore them from now on. Not wasting my time.

    Thanks rakets buddy!
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    Quote Originally Posted by rakets:

    What I don't understand is 1) if you don't agree with Suuma why not just move on to another post and 2) what compels you to berate his pick?  Because you have no following?  Seriously why do these people even come on the thread?  Fricken children who need to have their mama's change their diapers.  Get out of here, I read this non sense because I think someone is making an intelligent point only to find they are bashing.  Like I said, quit wasting my time and get out of here.  Suuma, win or lose on the Jets your handicapping is spot on.  Well done.


    I just ignore them from now on. Not wasting my time.

    Thanks rakets buddy!
     
    suuma
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    Posted: Dec. 30, 2015 - 4:30 AM ET #34

    Rams @ Niners

    I always try to avoid inefficient passing offenses, but this time I might take the Niners, because their opponent is an inefficient passing offense. Losing teams off an upset vs. a 8+ win team the week prior are 7-18 ATS in week 17, losing by 3 PPG. Is it a weird trend? Not at all. It tells you that teams come out flat in the last week if they are satisfied off an upset in week 16. The Rams had their personal Super Bowl last week. You could see it when they celebrated a TD in a for them "meaningless" game. They wanted to beat the Seahawks and went all in. This week they have another travel to beat the lousy Niners whom they already beat 27-6. I don't believe they care about this game and their preparation won't be 100% focused.

    Another great advantage for SF bettors is that there is a significant home/road difference between these two teams. Here are some key facts:

    SF Road defense PPG: 29.4 #31
    SF Home defense PPG: 17.1 #10

    STL Road offense PPG: 14.4 #31
    STL Home offense PPG: 16.9 #31

    SF Road defense DVOA: 18.8% #30
    SF Home defense DVOA: -5.2% #13

    STL Road offense DVOA: -23.1% #32
    STL Home offense DVOA: -11% #26

    We all know the Rams need a big game from Todd Gurley to make ANYTHING happen through the air. The Niners are holding opponents to an average of 3.3 YPC at home which is the 4th-best number in the league.

    The Niners have a significant home advantage on their stupid turf in Levi's stadium. They made several offenses look vulnerable like Packers, Cards, Seahawks, Falcons, Vikings, Bengals. The Rams are the worst offense they will be facing all year long at home. This Niners team has been playing with a chip on their shoulder all season long and I believe this is one of those teams that doesn't focus on the draft pick. Currently they are holding the 5th pick with the highest SOS. If they win, they could go to the 8th pick if Fins, Jags & Ravens lose out. But they cannot go below the 5th pick, no possibility. So I guess they are fine with a pick between 5 and 8 and will bring a huge effort on Sunday to close out the season.

    The Rams will look none-dimensional on offense while also coming out flat. There is a chance this is going to be a shutout but I cannot see them scor more than 10 points here which should seal the deal for a Niners win and cover. Going to wait for better juice on +3.5, otherwise I will be taking the +3 at plus money.
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    Rams @ Niners

    I always try to avoid inefficient passing offenses, but this time I might take the Niners, because their opponent is an inefficient passing offense. Losing teams off an upset vs. a 8+ win team the week prior are 7-18 ATS in week 17, losing by 3 PPG. Is it a weird trend? Not at all. It tells you that teams come out flat in the last week if they are satisfied off an upset in week 16. The Rams had their personal Super Bowl last week. You could see it when they celebrated a TD in a for them "meaningless" game. They wanted to beat the Seahawks and went all in. This week they have another travel to beat the lousy Niners whom they already beat 27-6. I don't believe they care about this game and their preparation won't be 100% focused.

    Another great advantage for SF bettors is that there is a significant home/road difference between these two teams. Here are some key facts:

    SF Road defense PPG: 29.4 #31
    SF Home defense PPG: 17.1 #10

    STL Road offense PPG: 14.4 #31
    STL Home offense PPG: 16.9 #31

    SF Road defense DVOA: 18.8% #30
    SF Home defense DVOA: -5.2% #13

    STL Road offense DVOA: -23.1% #32
    STL Home offense DVOA: -11% #26

    We all know the Rams need a big game from Todd Gurley to make ANYTHING happen through the air. The Niners are holding opponents to an average of 3.3 YPC at home which is the 4th-best number in the league.

    The Niners have a significant home advantage on their stupid turf in Levi's stadium. They made several offenses look vulnerable like Packers, Cards, Seahawks, Falcons, Vikings, Bengals. The Rams are the worst offense they will be facing all year long at home. This Niners team has been playing with a chip on their shoulder all season long and I believe this is one of those teams that doesn't focus on the draft pick. Currently they are holding the 5th pick with the highest SOS. If they win, they could go to the 8th pick if Fins, Jags & Ravens lose out. But they cannot go below the 5th pick, no possibility. So I guess they are fine with a pick between 5 and 8 and will bring a huge effort on Sunday to close out the season.

    The Rams will look none-dimensional on offense while also coming out flat. There is a chance this is going to be a shutout but I cannot see them scor more than 10 points here which should seal the deal for a Niners win and cover. Going to wait for better juice on +3.5, otherwise I will be taking the +3 at plus money.
     
    melossinglet
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    Posted: Dec. 30, 2015 - 6:59 AM ET #35

    Quote Originally Posted by BarrelledIn:

    All that nonsense in that wall of text and not a single word was ever read.

    Based on the -3 spread in Buff, Jets would be -9 vs. the Bills in NY. Jets were -8 vs Tenn. So Tenn is 1 point better than Buff FUKKING LMAO That's how stupid you are.

    The line in the first matchup was Jets -2.5 at home. lol they must have improved 6.5 points. The Westgate advanced line last week was Bills -1.5

    This pick shows you are nothing more than an overreaction Monday public square with zero understanding of the true nature of the NFL or line value.

    Pro tips for everyone that OP doesn't understand:
    -Buy low, sell high
    -Squares bet teams, sharps bet lines

    Jets are at their highest just because they won an OT game vs. Pats. If they lose that game, Bills are probably favored here. OP is also just betting the Jets because they're the Jets, regardless if the line is chit and makes zero sense.

    Thanks for the fade








    yo,it appears captain-and-seven has been darn.king you up the ar.se REALY,REALLY hard and you have caught watever filthy,vile,negative contagious disease he possesses and now there are 2 of you worthless but.t-buddies going around where you are not wanted spewing bile and pointless negativity for no good reason.....how does sumone even end up like you??......rap.ed and beaten as a child i guess??...almost without exception i wud have sympathy for sumone that was put in that situation but in your case i'll make an exception

    everyones entitled to voice their opinion,no matter how contrary or polarising.....but its just pitiful reading sumones baseless personal insults and degradation of a perfect stranger that is merely tryna help others with his own opinion and information whilst charging nothing and forcing no-one to follow or read.

    obviously dont know either of you but i'd be willing to bet that you wudnt say a single feckin thing if you saw suuma face to face...and if you did you'd be the type of snivelling little weasel to end up on the floor flat on your back in a heartbeat.
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    Quote Originally Posted by BarrelledIn:

    All that nonsense in that wall of text and not a single word was ever read.

    Based on the -3 spread in Buff, Jets would be -9 vs. the Bills in NY. Jets were -8 vs Tenn. So Tenn is 1 point better than Buff FUKKING LMAO That's how stupid you are.

    The line in the first matchup was Jets -2.5 at home. lol they must have improved 6.5 points. The Westgate advanced line last week was Bills -1.5

    This pick shows you are nothing more than an overreaction Monday public square with zero understanding of the true nature of the NFL or line value.

    Pro tips for everyone that OP doesn't understand:
    -Buy low, sell high
    -Squares bet teams, sharps bet lines

    Jets are at their highest just because they won an OT game vs. Pats. If they lose that game, Bills are probably favored here. OP is also just betting the Jets because they're the Jets, regardless if the line is chit and makes zero sense.

    Thanks for the fade








    yo,it appears captain-and-seven has been darn.king you up the ar.se REALY,REALLY hard and you have caught watever filthy,vile,negative contagious disease he possesses and now there are 2 of you worthless but.t-buddies going around where you are not wanted spewing bile and pointless negativity for no good reason.....how does sumone even end up like you??......rap.ed and beaten as a child i guess??...almost without exception i wud have sympathy for sumone that was put in that situation but in your case i'll make an exception

    everyones entitled to voice their opinion,no matter how contrary or polarising.....but its just pitiful reading sumones baseless personal insults and degradation of a perfect stranger that is merely tryna help others with his own opinion and information whilst charging nothing and forcing no-one to follow or read.

    obviously dont know either of you but i'd be willing to bet that you wudnt say a single feckin thing if you saw suuma face to face...and if you did you'd be the type of snivelling little weasel to end up on the floor flat on your back in a heartbeat.
     
    suuma
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    Posted: Dec. 30, 2015 - 9:14 AM ET #36

    Melos bringing the hammer
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    Melos bringing the hammer
     
    Macwestie1
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    Posted: Dec. 30, 2015 - 9:31 AM ET #37

    Quote Originally Posted by melossinglet:




    yo,it appears captain-and-seven has been darn.king you up the ar.se REALY,REALLY hard and you have caught watever filthy,vile,negative contagious disease he possesses and now there are 2 of you worthless but.t-buddies going around where you are not wanted spewing bile and pointless negativity for no good reason.....how does sumone even end up like you??......rap.ed and beaten as a child i guess??...almost without exception i wud have sympathy for sumone that was put in that situation but in your case i'll make an exception

    everyones entitled to voice their opinion,no matter how contrary or polarising.....but its just pitiful reading sumones baseless personal insults and degradation of a perfect stranger that is merely tryna help others with his own opinion and information whilst charging nothing and forcing no-one to follow or read.

    obviously dont know either of you but i'd be willing to bet that you wudnt say a single feckin thing if you saw suuma face to face...and if you did you'd be the type of snivelling little weasel to end up on the floor flat on your back in a heartbeat.

    Tell'em melossinglet 
    What do you call an Eternal Optimist? An accordion player with a beeper!
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    Quote Originally Posted by melossinglet:




    yo,it appears captain-and-seven has been darn.king you up the ar.se REALY,REALLY hard and you have caught watever filthy,vile,negative contagious disease he possesses and now there are 2 of you worthless but.t-buddies going around where you are not wanted spewing bile and pointless negativity for no good reason.....how does sumone even end up like you??......rap.ed and beaten as a child i guess??...almost without exception i wud have sympathy for sumone that was put in that situation but in your case i'll make an exception

    everyones entitled to voice their opinion,no matter how contrary or polarising.....but its just pitiful reading sumones baseless personal insults and degradation of a perfect stranger that is merely tryna help others with his own opinion and information whilst charging nothing and forcing no-one to follow or read.

    obviously dont know either of you but i'd be willing to bet that you wudnt say a single feckin thing if you saw suuma face to face...and if you did you'd be the type of snivelling little weasel to end up on the floor flat on your back in a heartbeat.

    Tell'em melossinglet 
     
    theCLASHER
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    Posted: Dec. 30, 2015 - 9:34 AM ET #38

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    OneWhoKnows
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    Posted: Dec. 30, 2015 - 10:08 AM ET #39

    I'll just follow Phixer's picks on this week

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    I'll just follow Phixer's picks on this week

     
    suuma
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    Posted: Dec. 30, 2015 - 10:11 AM ET #40

    Quote Originally Posted by OneWhoKnows:

    I'll just follow Phixer's picks on this week



    Good to know
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    Quote Originally Posted by OneWhoKnows:

    I'll just follow Phixer's picks on this week



    Good to know
     
    BetFriends
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    Posted: Dec. 30, 2015 - 10:37 AM ET #41

    Quote Originally Posted by BarrelledIn:

    All that nonsense in that wall of text and not a single word was ever read.

    Based on the -3 spread in Buff, Jets would be -9 vs. the Bills in NY. Jets were -8 vs Tenn. So Tenn is 1 point better than Buff FUKKING LMAO That's how stupid you are.

    The line in the first matchup was Jets -2.5 at home. lol they must have improved 6.5 points. The Westgate advanced line last week was Bills -1.5

    This pick shows you are nothing more than an overreaction Monday public square with zero understanding of the true nature of the NFL or line value.

    Pro tips for everyone that OP doesn't understand:
    -Buy low, sell high
    -Squares bet teams, sharps bet lines

    Jets are at their highest just because they won an OT game vs. Pats. If they lose that game, Bills are probably favored here. OP is also just betting the Jets because they're the Jets, regardless if the line is chit and makes zero sense.

    Thanks for the fade






    You said "nonsense" but then went on to talk about squares and sharps. Well done. Insult a guy at the start of your rant then go on to show us all that you are a casual uninformed pseudo-sharp.

    As for 'thanks for the fade'. Fading a guy because you personally don't like him is as casual bettor as using words like square and sharp.

    Maybe just go kill yourself instead, because you can't even troll right.
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    Quote Originally Posted by BarrelledIn:

    All that nonsense in that wall of text and not a single word was ever read.

    Based on the -3 spread in Buff, Jets would be -9 vs. the Bills in NY. Jets were -8 vs Tenn. So Tenn is 1 point better than Buff FUKKING LMAO That's how stupid you are.

    The line in the first matchup was Jets -2.5 at home. lol they must have improved 6.5 points. The Westgate advanced line last week was Bills -1.5

    This pick shows you are nothing more than an overreaction Monday public square with zero understanding of the true nature of the NFL or line value.

    Pro tips for everyone that OP doesn't understand:
    -Buy low, sell high
    -Squares bet teams, sharps bet lines

    Jets are at their highest just because they won an OT game vs. Pats. If they lose that game, Bills are probably favored here. OP is also just betting the Jets because they're the Jets, regardless if the line is chit and makes zero sense.

    Thanks for the fade






    You said "nonsense" but then went on to talk about squares and sharps. Well done. Insult a guy at the start of your rant then go on to show us all that you are a casual uninformed pseudo-sharp.

    As for 'thanks for the fade'. Fading a guy because you personally don't like him is as casual bettor as using words like square and sharp.

    Maybe just go kill yourself instead, because you can't even troll right.
     
    BetFriends
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    Posted: Dec. 30, 2015 - 10:41 AM ET #42

    Quote Originally Posted by BarrelledIn:

     

    Based on the -3 spread in Buff, Jets would be -9 vs. the Bills in NY. Jets were -8 vs Tenn. So Tenn is 1 point better than Buff FUKKING LMAO That's how stupid you are.

    The line in the first matchup was Jets -2.5 at home. lol they must have improved 6.5 points. The Westgate advanced line last week was Bills -1.5

    This pick shows you are nothing more than an overreaction Monday public square with zero understanding of the true nature of the NFL or line value.


    By the way, you also have 0 idea how lines are made in the NFL. So, again, I really don't know why you think you have any grounds to insult anyone from.

    'Based on lines that were generated for another game' lol, get the fuk out of here idiot. Go learn the basics about opening lines and how they're calculated.

    Then stop stealing oxygen from people who deserve it.
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    Quote Originally Posted by BarrelledIn:

     

    Based on the -3 spread in Buff, Jets would be -9 vs. the Bills in NY. Jets were -8 vs Tenn. So Tenn is 1 point better than Buff FUKKING LMAO That's how stupid you are.

    The line in the first matchup was Jets -2.5 at home. lol they must have improved 6.5 points. The Westgate advanced line last week was Bills -1.5

    This pick shows you are nothing more than an overreaction Monday public square with zero understanding of the true nature of the NFL or line value.


    By the way, you also have 0 idea how lines are made in the NFL. So, again, I really don't know why you think you have any grounds to insult anyone from.

    'Based on lines that were generated for another game' lol, get the fuk out of here idiot. Go learn the basics about opening lines and how they're calculated.

    Then stop stealing oxygen from people who deserve it.
     
    BetFriends
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    Posted: Dec. 30, 2015 - 10:43 AM ET #43

    Quote Originally Posted by fadeORdie:

    Good to see you finally winning some cash

    Pretending to be happy for a guy you've made it your most important passion in life to troll all season. 

    What a tool.
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    Quote Originally Posted by fadeORdie:

    Good to see you finally winning some cash

    Pretending to be happy for a guy you've made it your most important passion in life to troll all season. 

    What a tool.
     
    Macwestie1
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    Posted: Dec. 30, 2015 - 10:52 AM ET #44

    GL Suuma Looking at the play as we speak not sure where I'm going but I like your write up very encouraging indeed
    What do you call an Eternal Optimist? An accordion player with a beeper!
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    GL Suuma Looking at the play as we speak not sure where I'm going but I like your write up very encouraging indeed
     
    Biscuit
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    Posted: Dec. 30, 2015 - 12:09 PM ET #45

    Quote Originally Posted by suuma:



    Thanks for your comment. Great question and I want to give my input:

    Over the past three years starting in 2011, the Bills have built a very good defense with some good draft picks like Stephon Gilmore, Nigel Bradham, Marcell Dareus, Aaron Williams, Da'Norris Searchy, Kiko Alonso, Preston Brown.

    Since their last playoff appearance, the Jets have been declining, defensively but especially offensively. That's why the Bills matched up so well with the Jets in recent years. If you had an average or below average QB play, the Bills have made you one-dimensional. The peak was last season when the Jets committed 6 turnovers in the first game (scalabrine can sing a song) and were totally dismantled in the second game. Under Rex Ryan, the Jets have been a terrible inconstistent Football team and the Bills were able to take advantage of that. So it's no surprise the Bills were able to win 3/4 in 2013 and 2014 when they made Geno Smith, who had no good support by the coaching staff, look like a fool without a good receiving corps.

    The fifth game is what I talked about in my write-up. It's part of our hobby to read these spots and get the most of it. The Jets were in a terrible spot. That's why you sometimes see two completely different games between two division rivals in one season. The Falcons lost 0-38 at Carolina but beat them straight up on Sunday. Broncos got a lucky win over KC in the first game because the Chiefs had a turnover-festival (like the Jets in week 10 vs. the Bills) but in the second game, the Broncos got totally dominated like they should have been in game one.

    This year, Jets and Bills were heading into opposite directions. Without Rex Ryan, the Bills would have been a true playoff contender throughout the season. Bills fans probably don't want to hear that because they had high expectations. But he turned this defense into complete garbage. The front seven which was their premium last season is non-existent. This season their adjusted sack rate is 3.7% which is dead-last in the league. Last season they were the best team at 8.8%.

    The only chance to contain the Jets' offense who have scored a league-high 2+ offensive TDs in every game this season, is to get pressure on Fitzpatrick by exploiting the weak spots on the offensive line. LT D'Brickshaw Ferguson has been declining this season, he is still very good against bull-rushes but he struggled a bit with speedy, athletic edge rushers. After the injury of RG Willie Colon, the right side has been the weak side because RT Brian Giacomini isn't a franchise Tackle and RG Brian Winters is average. The Bills don't have the pass rush this season to exploit this offensive line, that's why the Jets are going to score at will. Rex Ryan likes to drop seven in zone coverage, but the Jets have Eric Decker who is a great slot/flat/cross route runner. Fitzpatrick and him are going to find the soft spots between the zones.


    Thanks for your thoughts.    I still like the Bills, but I made it only a small play, instead of putting a full unit on them.

    The story line is just too rich, I can't pass it up. Rex gets fired, goes to div rival, and has a chance to knock his former team out of the playoffs.   The Bills should play loosey-goosey, maybe employ some trick plays, flea flickers, fake punts, whatever, Rex has nothing to lose.

    I like the Niners, too, and the Eagles.    I'm hoping the pups have a good weekend.

    GL suuma  


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    Quote Originally Posted by suuma:



    Thanks for your comment. Great question and I want to give my input:

    Over the past three years starting in 2011, the Bills have built a very good defense with some good draft picks like Stephon Gilmore, Nigel Bradham, Marcell Dareus, Aaron Williams, Da'Norris Searchy, Kiko Alonso, Preston Brown.

    Since their last playoff appearance, the Jets have been declining, defensively but especially offensively. That's why the Bills matched up so well with the Jets in recent years. If you had an average or below average QB play, the Bills have made you one-dimensional. The peak was last season when the Jets committed 6 turnovers in the first game (scalabrine can sing a song) and were totally dismantled in the second game. Under Rex Ryan, the Jets have been a terrible inconstistent Football team and the Bills were able to take advantage of that. So it's no surprise the Bills were able to win 3/4 in 2013 and 2014 when they made Geno Smith, who had no good support by the coaching staff, look like a fool without a good receiving corps.

    The fifth game is what I talked about in my write-up. It's part of our hobby to read these spots and get the most of it. The Jets were in a terrible spot. That's why you sometimes see two completely different games between two division rivals in one season. The Falcons lost 0-38 at Carolina but beat them straight up on Sunday. Broncos got a lucky win over KC in the first game because the Chiefs had a turnover-festival (like the Jets in week 10 vs. the Bills) but in the second game, the Broncos got totally dominated like they should have been in game one.

    This year, Jets and Bills were heading into opposite directions. Without Rex Ryan, the Bills would have been a true playoff contender throughout the season. Bills fans probably don't want to hear that because they had high expectations. But he turned this defense into complete garbage. The front seven which was their premium last season is non-existent. This season their adjusted sack rate is 3.7% which is dead-last in the league. Last season they were the best team at 8.8%.

    The only chance to contain the Jets' offense who have scored a league-high 2+ offensive TDs in every game this season, is to get pressure on Fitzpatrick by exploiting the weak spots on the offensive line. LT D'Brickshaw Ferguson has been declining this season, he is still very good against bull-rushes but he struggled a bit with speedy, athletic edge rushers. After the injury of RG Willie Colon, the right side has been the weak side because RT Brian Giacomini isn't a franchise Tackle and RG Brian Winters is average. The Bills don't have the pass rush this season to exploit this offensive line, that's why the Jets are going to score at will. Rex Ryan likes to drop seven in zone coverage, but the Jets have Eric Decker who is a great slot/flat/cross route runner. Fitzpatrick and him are going to find the soft spots between the zones.


    Thanks for your thoughts.    I still like the Bills, but I made it only a small play, instead of putting a full unit on them.

    The story line is just too rich, I can't pass it up. Rex gets fired, goes to div rival, and has a chance to knock his former team out of the playoffs.   The Bills should play loosey-goosey, maybe employ some trick plays, flea flickers, fake punts, whatever, Rex has nothing to lose.

    I like the Niners, too, and the Eagles.    I'm hoping the pups have a good weekend.

    GL suuma  


     
    benhogan76
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    Posted: Dec. 30, 2015 - 12:42 PM ET #46

    Quote Originally Posted by scalabrine:

    Another great write up Suuma. I would say your best of the season.

    To add to the above:

    Ryan's revenge game was in NY and he won it. Mission accomplished. Motivation is severely watered down in a lost season for the Bills and you are correct in saying, remarkably, that Ryan has severely downgraded this defense.

    I struggled to get through that brutal Cowboys game where I had the Bills ML. Bills looked COMPLETELY unmotivated and the final score of 16-6 did not do it justice. That was a very close game where only a late turnover lead to a TD to skew the result. Bills could not put it in the end zone no matter how much they tried before that against a Cowboys team that installed underachievers and sat stars (ie coaches want to lose respectably).

    And here's another tidbit which points to the Jets winning...


    Ryan came out at his press conference and said the following:


    "I think part of it now looking at the season, we have, this is not the time. You know with, if we are trying to win a more significant game for us. Obviously that would be, you might consider something else. We want him to be the long term solution at the spot, so he has got to learn to protect himself and understand that we need him to be that."

    If they are going to inhibit Taylor's ability to run, they will lose for certain. Even suggesting such a thing publicly and planting a seed in Taylor's head making him throw (not his strength when it's his primary option) is a bad thing.

    There was a 4 game stretch this season where Taylor ran 24 times (low for him on average). Bills went 1-3.

    Also, Mario Williams, an alleged defensive 'big dog' is compeltely nonexistent on defense.

    He played 54 snaps vs the Cowboys and didn't register a single tackle, assisted tackle, hurry or QB pressure of any kind. Zero's on the entire stat line.

    Bills have really struggled down the stretch and to come out with all this motivation in a season that's down the hopper is to gamble on something that won't  be there in full (what is needed to win against this Jets team), especially as players are more than disgruntled with how Rex and his schemes have watered down their defensive stats tremendously. 

    Try to compare this game to Rex returning to his old stomping grounds at MetLife with a healthier team and one that benefited from timely turnovers and in a game where the Bills were more than alive for the playoffs. The two games just don't compare as the Jets come off a highly emotional win, but one where they still control their density and their mission of the playoffs is still not accomplished to counter that.

    I will be backing the Jets with you with a very reasonable line.










    You really think that Rex wont want to make it as hard as possible for the Jets to make the playoffs?  Could be wrong but think if Jets lose and Pitts win Jets are out, no?  He seems like type of guy that sticking to last team he coached would be as good as making playoffs.  As a Jets fan hope I am wrong.

    Either way great write up suuma

    Max Miller a great member of congress!
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    Quote Originally Posted by scalabrine:

    Another great write up Suuma. I would say your best of the season.

    To add to the above:

    Ryan's revenge game was in NY and he won it. Mission accomplished. Motivation is severely watered down in a lost season for the Bills and you are correct in saying, remarkably, that Ryan has severely downgraded this defense.

    I struggled to get through that brutal Cowboys game where I had the Bills ML. Bills looked COMPLETELY unmotivated and the final score of 16-6 did not do it justice. That was a very close game where only a late turnover lead to a TD to skew the result. Bills could not put it in the end zone no matter how much they tried before that against a Cowboys team that installed underachievers and sat stars (ie coaches want to lose respectably).

    And here's another tidbit which points to the Jets winning...


    Ryan came out at his press conference and said the following:


    "I think part of it now looking at the season, we have, this is not the time. You know with, if we are trying to win a more significant game for us. Obviously that would be, you might consider something else. We want him to be the long term solution at the spot, so he has got to learn to protect himself and understand that we need him to be that."

    If they are going to inhibit Taylor's ability to run, they will lose for certain. Even suggesting such a thing publicly and planting a seed in Taylor's head making him throw (not his strength when it's his primary option) is a bad thing.

    There was a 4 game stretch this season where Taylor ran 24 times (low for him on average). Bills went 1-3.

    Also, Mario Williams, an alleged defensive 'big dog' is compeltely nonexistent on defense.

    He played 54 snaps vs the Cowboys and didn't register a single tackle, assisted tackle, hurry or QB pressure of any kind. Zero's on the entire stat line.

    Bills have really struggled down the stretch and to come out with all this motivation in a season that's down the hopper is to gamble on something that won't  be there in full (what is needed to win against this Jets team), especially as players are more than disgruntled with how Rex and his schemes have watered down their defensive stats tremendously. 

    Try to compare this game to Rex returning to his old stomping grounds at MetLife with a healthier team and one that benefited from timely turnovers and in a game where the Bills were more than alive for the playoffs. The two games just don't compare as the Jets come off a highly emotional win, but one where they still control their density and their mission of the playoffs is still not accomplished to counter that.

    I will be backing the Jets with you with a very reasonable line.










    You really think that Rex wont want to make it as hard as possible for the Jets to make the playoffs?  Could be wrong but think if Jets lose and Pitts win Jets are out, no?  He seems like type of guy that sticking to last team he coached would be as good as making playoffs.  As a Jets fan hope I am wrong.

    Either way great write up suuma

     
    AFNfootballnerd
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    Posted: Dec. 30, 2015 - 1:29 PM ET #47

    Quote Originally Posted by suuma:



    Do you follow the script?

    Nope but the system I do follow lands on bills to cover...your insights and write ups are always an interesting read just figured I'd chime in on the discussion on why the bills will cover...it's the only game I'm playing week 17. 
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    Quote Originally Posted by suuma:



    Do you follow the script?

    Nope but the system I do follow lands on bills to cover...your insights and write ups are always an interesting read just figured I'd chime in on the discussion on why the bills will cover...it's the only game I'm playing week 17. 
     
    totallypsycho
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    Posted: Dec. 30, 2015 - 5:04 PM ET #48

    Quote Originally Posted by suuma:



    On my side of the world it opened between -1.5 and -3 at several places.


    on mine it opened at pk 

    either way, books obviously aren't going to make bills a favorite whether they think the bills will win or not 

    i do agree about the niners though 
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    Quote Originally Posted by suuma:



    On my side of the world it opened between -1.5 and -3 at several places.


    on mine it opened at pk 

    either way, books obviously aren't going to make bills a favorite whether they think the bills will win or not 

    i do agree about the niners though 
     
    TheHuffNBA
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    Posted: Dec. 30, 2015 - 6:09 PM ET #49

    Suuma, great work.......besides the Dolphins and Ravens, would you think that the "Week 17 big underdog" theory might also work with Houston vs the Jags and Indy (assuming Hasselbeck here) vs Titans?

    Am surprised that the opening line on Houston is only -6......was expecting a bigger number.
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    Suuma, great work.......besides the Dolphins and Ravens, would you think that the "Week 17 big underdog" theory might also work with Houston vs the Jags and Indy (assuming Hasselbeck here) vs Titans?

    Am surprised that the opening line on Houston is only -6......was expecting a bigger number.
     
     
    JerryWrasse
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    Posted: Dec. 30, 2015 - 8:56 PM ET #50

    Jets line opened at a pick and quickly went to - 3. Pinnacle opened at 1.5 a few minutes after cris. Someone must really like the Jets. For them it's simple win and you earn the right to play another week. 

    Don't bet this game thinking the Bills already blew their wade and won't show up. Jets coming off a huge, and physical win, against NE. Rex would love nothing more than to play the roll of the spoiler. I give the mental advantage to Buffalo. 

    Buff has won the l4 vs nyj. Whats that saying "give me mine and i'll beat yours, give me yours and i'll beat mine"? Rex may have turned the Bills def to shi.t but who knows nyj personnel better? And who exactly have the jets beaten? For some reason ne isn't that impressive. Dolphins, Giants, Titans, Cowboys?

    Would love to see a stat on qb vs former team, coach vs former team at home, and coach vs former team on road. 
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    Jets line opened at a pick and quickly went to - 3. Pinnacle opened at 1.5 a few minutes after cris. Someone must really like the Jets. For them it's simple win and you earn the right to play another week. 

    Don't bet this game thinking the Bills already blew their wade and won't show up. Jets coming off a huge, and physical win, against NE. Rex would love nothing more than to play the roll of the spoiler. I give the mental advantage to Buffalo. 

    Buff has won the l4 vs nyj. Whats that saying "give me mine and i'll beat yours, give me yours and i'll beat mine"? Rex may have turned the Bills def to shi.t but who knows nyj personnel better? And who exactly have the jets beaten? For some reason ne isn't that impressive. Dolphins, Giants, Titans, Cowboys?

    Would love to see a stat on qb vs former team, coach vs former team at home, and coach vs former team on road. 
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