Posted:
#76
i am waaaaayy behind in here
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suuma's NFL Week Nine
Posted:
#78
Quote Originally Posted by fivedollarunit:
ATL -3: Good writeup on the ATL falcons suuma and I agree with several of your key points. I think they will cover but since the spread is -4 in my bookie
, I'll just play it safe and do 1unit on the ML.
ATL -3: Good writeup on the ATL falcons suuma and I agree with several of your key points. I think they will cover but since the spread is -4 in my bookie
, I'll just play it safe and do 1unit on the ML.SD -5: I disagree with you here. I think TN is not as bad of a team as they seem to be. They're schedule may have been cupcake but let's not discount their performance. They've had flashes of brilliance on offense. They've kept themselves in every game so far. Their defense has only allowed one meaningful second half TD to lose the lead all year (They've allowed five total, four of those were garbage points), and they've shown they can dominate when they win. All San Diego has shown me are 4q meltdowns. TN has the ability to keep this game close and I think they will.
BUF +7: This one's kinda iffy to me. I just never like betting against Seattle in CenturyLink field. With that being said, I'd lean towards Seattle here. When I picture how the game will go, I see the Bills running into all kinds of walls. Seahawks defense just tends to create all kinds of opportunities. If the Bills don't take care of the football in this game, I see the Seahawks running all over them.
Dak is a good qb. but i'd still take Romo over Dak. Unless there's something Dak can do that Romo can't. Romos experience will come handy later in the season and, dare i say it, the playoffs.
All your other picks I agree with. Lol.
Thanks for your analysis. Let me counter a bit on the SD/TEN matchup. The Titans offense has played the 2nd-easiest schedule of all teams, only the Chiefs have played an easier one. The Chargers defense is probably the most underrated unit in the entire league. They rank 7th in total DVOA while having played the 6th-toughest schedule. On Sunday they dropped three interceptions in the first half alone and the offense gave up a pick-six. This unit is GOOD, even though playing without one of the best corners in the league. They held the Falcons to just 3 (!) offensive points during the last 36 minutes in regulation at their dome. Since Bosa joined the team they have been getting better and better. This is going to be a much worse matchup for the Titans than you probably expect.
San Diego played just 3 home games thus far and they scored a combined 94 points. I think there havent been defensive scores. The Titans had good games when they were able to control the game with their running game and weren't forced to throw. Against the Colts and Texans they were behind early and never came back, because this offense isn't built to play well through the air. This is bad for the NFL, because Marcus Mariota is a much better pocket passer than runner, contrary to the public opinion. The Chargers will score on the Titans, and they will score early, there is no doubt in my mind. Titans will have a hard time scoring from behind against a very decent defense.
The injury report of San Diego is concerning. If it doesn't better I might buy off a unit.
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Posted:
#80
Quote Originally Posted by suuma:
Thanks for your analysis. Let me counter a bit on the SD/TEN matchup. The Titans offense has played the 2nd-easiest schedule of all teams, only the Chiefs have played an easier one. The Chargers defense is probably the most underrated unit in the entire league. They rank 7th in total DVOA while having played the 6th-toughest schedule. On Sunday they dropped three interceptions in the first half alone and the offense gave up a pick-six. This unit is GOOD, even though playing without one of the best corners in the league. They held the Falcons to just 3 (!) offensive points during the last 36 minutes in regulation at their dome. Since Bosa joined the team they have been getting better and better. This is going to be a much worse matchup for the Titans than you probably expect.
San Diego played just 3 home games thus far and they scored a combined 94 points. I think there havent been defensive scores. The Titans had good games when they were able to control the game with their running game and weren't forced to throw. Against the Colts and Texans they were behind early and never came back, because this offense isn't built to play well through the air. This is bad for the NFL, because Marcus Mariota is a much better pocket passer than runner, contrary to the public opinion. The Chargers will score on the Titans, and they will score early, there is no doubt in my mind. Titans will have a hard time scoring from behind against a very decent defense.
The injury report of San Diego is concerning. If it doesn't better I might buy off a unit.
Thanks for your analysis. Let me counter a bit on the SD/TEN matchup. The Titans offense has played the 2nd-easiest schedule of all teams, only the Chiefs have played an easier one. The Chargers defense is probably the most underrated unit in the entire league. They rank 7th in total DVOA while having played the 6th-toughest schedule. On Sunday they dropped three interceptions in the first half alone and the offense gave up a pick-six. This unit is GOOD, even though playing without one of the best corners in the league. They held the Falcons to just 3 (!) offensive points during the last 36 minutes in regulation at their dome. Since Bosa joined the team they have been getting better and better. This is going to be a much worse matchup for the Titans than you probably expect.
San Diego played just 3 home games thus far and they scored a combined 94 points. I think there havent been defensive scores. The Titans had good games when they were able to control the game with their running game and weren't forced to throw. Against the Colts and Texans they were behind early and never came back, because this offense isn't built to play well through the air. This is bad for the NFL, because Marcus Mariota is a much better pocket passer than runner, contrary to the public opinion. The Chargers will score on the Titans, and they will score early, there is no doubt in my mind. Titans will have a hard time scoring from behind against a very decent defense.
The injury report of San Diego is concerning. If it doesn't better I might buy off a unit.
I like.
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Posted:
#81
Quote Originally Posted by porcelainfist:
Suuma, you're again overvaluing end zone picks. I told you in week 6 before the Cowboys' Week 6 victory in Green Bay you were saying Cousins threw an egregious interception in the end zone, he didn't. He just threw an interception in the end Zone. It happens. Exactly like the Cousins interception where Barry Church read the route combo and left his man, so too did Hicks come off of his man, Witten, to cut off the route of his intended target Brice Butler.
We are on a gambling site, so acres matter. Ask me if I think Prescott is better thAn Romo, he's not and its not close. Ask me if he's better than WENTZ. Definitely. Wentz hasn't completed a pass of over 26 yards since week one. Didn't attempt a pass of over 20 yards.
Again, the point here is that this is a Cowboys team that without Romo last year went 1-11. Did they add a premier pass rusher? They didn't. A shutdown Corner? Nope. Same offensive line as last year.
People didn't listen to me when I told them Cowboys were close in every game but two last year, yet now all want to act like I'm wrong again and will continue to underestimate this team an this quarterback based on pure, forgive my word choice, ignorance and/or arrogance. I understand Eagles fans being bitter but winning games matters in sports gambling. I have won 6 games in the Supercontest with these Cowboys and I'll laugh every time the team against them is top 6 consensus.
Suuma, you're again overvaluing end zone picks. I told you in week 6 before the Cowboys' Week 6 victory in Green Bay you were saying Cousins threw an egregious interception in the end zone, he didn't. He just threw an interception in the end Zone. It happens. Exactly like the Cousins interception where Barry Church read the route combo and left his man, so too did Hicks come off of his man, Witten, to cut off the route of his intended target Brice Butler.
We are on a gambling site, so acres matter. Ask me if I think Prescott is better thAn Romo, he's not and its not close. Ask me if he's better than WENTZ. Definitely. Wentz hasn't completed a pass of over 26 yards since week one. Didn't attempt a pass of over 20 yards.
Again, the point here is that this is a Cowboys team that without Romo last year went 1-11. Did they add a premier pass rusher? They didn't. A shutdown Corner? Nope. Same offensive line as last year.
People didn't listen to me when I told them Cowboys were close in every game but two last year, yet now all want to act like I'm wrong again and will continue to underestimate this team an this quarterback based on pure, forgive my word choice, ignorance and/or arrogance. I understand Eagles fans being bitter but winning games matters in sports gambling. I have won 6 games in the Supercontest with these Cowboys and I'll laugh every time the team against them is top 6 consensus.
Here's another stat for you:
Wentz threw 12.4% of his attempts (20 + yds) PRIOR to the Dal game. That was good for 11th most in the league.
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Posted:
#82
Quote Originally Posted by suuma:
Thanks for your analysis. Let me counter a bit on the SD/TEN matchup. The Titans offense has played the 2nd-easiest schedule of all teams, only the Chiefs have played an easier one. The Chargers defense is probably the most underrated unit in the entire league. They rank 7th in total DVOA while having played the 6th-toughest schedule. On Sunday they dropped three interceptions in the first half alone and the offense gave up a pick-six. This unit is GOOD, even though playing without one of the best corners in the league. They held the Falcons to just 3 (!) offensive points during the last 36 minutes in regulation at their dome. Since Bosa joined the team they have been getting better and better. This is going to be a much worse matchup for the Titans than you probably expect.
San Diego played just 3 home games thus far and they scored a combined 94 points. I think there havent been defensive scores. The Titans had good games when they were able to control the game with their running game and weren't forced to throw. Against the Colts and Texans they were behind early and never came back, because this offense isn't built to play well through the air. This is bad for the NFL, because Marcus Mariota is a much better pocket passer than runner, contrary to the public opinion. The Chargers will score on the Titans, and they will score early, there is no doubt in my mind. Titans will have a hard time scoring from behind against a very decent defense.
The injury report of San Diego is concerning. If it doesn't better I might buy off a unit.
Thanks for your analysis. Let me counter a bit on the SD/TEN matchup. The Titans offense has played the 2nd-easiest schedule of all teams, only the Chiefs have played an easier one. The Chargers defense is probably the most underrated unit in the entire league. They rank 7th in total DVOA while having played the 6th-toughest schedule. On Sunday they dropped three interceptions in the first half alone and the offense gave up a pick-six. This unit is GOOD, even though playing without one of the best corners in the league. They held the Falcons to just 3 (!) offensive points during the last 36 minutes in regulation at their dome. Since Bosa joined the team they have been getting better and better. This is going to be a much worse matchup for the Titans than you probably expect.
San Diego played just 3 home games thus far and they scored a combined 94 points. I think there havent been defensive scores. The Titans had good games when they were able to control the game with their running game and weren't forced to throw. Against the Colts and Texans they were behind early and never came back, because this offense isn't built to play well through the air. This is bad for the NFL, because Marcus Mariota is a much better pocket passer than runner, contrary to the public opinion. The Chargers will score on the Titans, and they will score early, there is no doubt in my mind. Titans will have a hard time scoring from behind against a very decent defense.
The injury report of San Diego is concerning. If it doesn't better I might buy off a unit.
I'm pretty sure Titans had the lead against the Colts until late in the 4q. Either way, I do agree that the Chargers defense is underrated and the Titans do have more subpar moments than flashes of brilliance. I just don't like laying 5 points on a team with a track record of 4q meltdowns. Call me crazy, but I think the Chargers lose value at 5 points. Not a lot, but just enough to make me uncomfortable. (It's at -5 in my book. Can't get -4 anymore). I would consider SD at -3 though.
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Posted:
#83
Best of luck this week suuma!
I like your ATL and SD plays. I think TB and TEN both get smoked this week.
Also LOVE the Giants!
I think Carolina is getting their balance back and don't think they fall flat this week @ LA. LA QB play is only getting worse. I think this game is going to be largely determined by Carolina O-line vs. Rams D-line. If Rams D-line isn't getting pressure and and can't stop run Carolina covers easily (middle of the pack vs. the run and they haven't been dominant vs. pass this year).
Also, I don't think LA is type of team that will hang points on Carolina and force them out of what they want to do on Offense like the other good passing attacks that Carolina has lost to.
Although I agree and bet Carolina last week based on the spot I think some momentum and confidence will carry over.
I like your ATL and SD plays. I think TB and TEN both get smoked this week.
Also LOVE the Giants!
I think Carolina is getting their balance back and don't think they fall flat this week @ LA. LA QB play is only getting worse. I think this game is going to be largely determined by Carolina O-line vs. Rams D-line. If Rams D-line isn't getting pressure and and can't stop run Carolina covers easily (middle of the pack vs. the run and they haven't been dominant vs. pass this year).
Also, I don't think LA is type of team that will hang points on Carolina and force them out of what they want to do on Offense like the other good passing attacks that Carolina has lost to.
Although I agree and bet Carolina last week based on the spot I think some momentum and confidence will carry over.
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Posted:
#84
Pfist. All you need to do is look at the offense of that Wentz has to work with here Ace.
N Agalor #3 to maybe #4 wr on any other team in NFL if not practice squad. (Thank Chip K for that Gem of a pick)
Jordan Mathews #2 on any NFL team borderline #3
Josh Huff ( Off the team gun charge and smokey smoke couldnt play a lick at wide out)
Celek( Usless, should retire at this point)
Zac Ertz ( Cant break a tackle run a route or get open at 6''5 and runs 4.7 40 come on man)
DGB ( Dont even get me started on this useless sack of crap cant run a route other the a dam slant, cant grasp the play book cant block)
sproles is the only offense we have
So dont give me Dak is better then Wentz.
Elliot
Dez
JWit even though he is like 50 still better then both our TE's
TWill better then any of our WR maybe equal to J mathews
Cole B better then any slot guy we have, better hands then any wr we have
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Posted:
#85
Quote Originally Posted by porcelainfist:
Train, last I spoke to you this was what you had to say:
Of course they'll stack the box...Dallas has the leagues leading rusher? Who does Philly have? A fumble prone scat back and a 45 year old .....Train, last I spoke to you this was what you had to say:
"Stop looking at those #'s and thinking you know something. The reason those teams have bad rushing numbers isnt simply because they cant run.....they have been down in most games resulting in them throwing by necessity....also, they have played GB, which account for 1/5 of their current stats (which is pretty hefty)....
If you think GB isnt going to stack the box and make Dak throw to Beasley and Williams you are going to be very disappointed on sunday....Dallas has ZERO deep threat and that is going to start catching up to them this week"
You were dead wrong. You are dead wrong again.
Not sure what your point is (not that you have one). If you swapped teams, it wouldnt matter for Dallas as THEIR SURROUNDING TALENT makes running a necessity...ie great rb and o line, weak wr group.....Phillys "surrounding talent" does not lend well to a run game, thus Wentz has had to pass out of necessity....
Both teams drafted these guys to fit their scheme.....So you thinking you can pull stats and compare apples and oranges is fine....it gets you nowhere and means nothing....
Yep, stupid me is dead wrong.....
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Posted:
#86
Quote Originally Posted by suuma:
Dribble, of course a win is a win. But knowing how the games are played out gives you an advantage on future games when the market sets the lines differently from your opinion just because there is the public looking at box scores.
Cowboys might be 7-0 ATS - dependent on what lines you got - but their spreads will be more inflated in the second half of the season and all I am doing is trying to take advantage of it.
Dribble, of course a win is a win. But knowing how the games are played out gives you an advantage on future games when the market sets the lines differently from your opinion just because there is the public looking at box scores.
Cowboys might be 7-0 ATS - dependent on what lines you got - but their spreads will be more inflated in the second half of the season and all I am doing is trying to take advantage of it.
I agree wholeheartedly with that last sentence. Prescott is over-hyped, over-loved and over-priced.
DAL got lucky with PHL, but I bet the next time DAL is within 1/2 or 1 point of the spread they will fail to cover because Vegas makes DAL expensive going forward.
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Posted:
#87
@Train, you said this was going to be Dallas' downfall, it wasn't, you were wrong.
There is no reason to compare what if's. What we know so far is that Prescott's numbers are demonstrably better. Because we have not seen them play with different hypothetical supporting casts all points regarding this factor are moot.
While many want to take this point as me saying that their numbers aren't influenced by their surrounding cast, it actually is pointing out the fallacy of comparing their supporting cast. You cannot compare this. Prescott can only play with the team he has been given, and last year this squad was 4-12 with three of those wins coming with Romo.
Say what you will about Prescott or Romo, I have no care in the world. I have played Dallas in 6 games this year and have been within 4 points of predicting their final score three separate times.
Again, I would stay away from the Cleveland game, but I would never play the Browns over this Dallas team, and all of your arguments to their dominance support this fact, although I would disagree that they are unbeatable and any QB can apparently step in and have better numbers than Wentz and Wentz would still be considered better, but go on with your bad self, not my dog if you want to bury your collective heads.
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Posted:
#88
Two things:
As an afc south guy, at this moment the Titans are the second best team in the division, which I know isn't saying much. But their offensive line is on their way to being the real deal. And while I'm not a fan of Murray, you can't argue with what he has done. On defense, their front seven is live. They will hold up against the run and can get occasional pressure. To truly punish their secondary, you need legit number one wrs, which I haven't seen from the Chargers. The coaching matchup is a draw between McCoy and mularkey. Finally, the Titans are playing with confidence. For the first time in a long while, they believe they can win. I would consider laying a field goal with San Diego, but anymore is too much.
On Prescott, I gambled quite a bit on him in college. He had a great defense and his athleticism carried him against inferior opponents. He rarely beat teams with great qb play. That isn't a good sign going into the nfl. He landed in an ideal situation. But at the midway point, never mind the numbers, he doesn't pass the eye test. He hasn't been asked to do much, and hasn't done much. I would be very careful against a well coached hard playing Browns team in search of their first win
As an afc south guy, at this moment the Titans are the second best team in the division, which I know isn't saying much. But their offensive line is on their way to being the real deal. And while I'm not a fan of Murray, you can't argue with what he has done. On defense, their front seven is live. They will hold up against the run and can get occasional pressure. To truly punish their secondary, you need legit number one wrs, which I haven't seen from the Chargers. The coaching matchup is a draw between McCoy and mularkey. Finally, the Titans are playing with confidence. For the first time in a long while, they believe they can win. I would consider laying a field goal with San Diego, but anymore is too much.
On Prescott, I gambled quite a bit on him in college. He had a great defense and his athleticism carried him against inferior opponents. He rarely beat teams with great qb play. That isn't a good sign going into the nfl. He landed in an ideal situation. But at the midway point, never mind the numbers, he doesn't pass the eye test. He hasn't been asked to do much, and hasn't done much. I would be very careful against a well coached hard playing Browns team in search of their first win
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Posted:
#91
Suma Bol this week. What's your opinion on a teaser options den +11.5 and Detroit +16? All detroits losses have been 7 or less this year. Minny seems to be coming back down to earth. I'm a raider fan and like our O but D lacking bad in secondary. Not a fan of Semien but that Den D is the real deal and should hold us below 23 for sure IMO
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Posted:
#92
Quote Originally Posted by DRIBBLE4LIFE:
Nice win, Suuma. I took a flyer on the alternate line and it paid off. I also got "ATL PK in-game, right after TB scored their 1st TD", and hammered it for another 200 bucks. bol this weekend:
two for Thursday! good play, solid value Nice win, Suuma. I took a flyer on the alternate line and it paid off. I also got "ATL PK in-game, right after TB scored their 1st TD", and hammered it for another 200 bucks. bol this weekend:
Atlanta - 10.5 @ +205 well done....
.
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Posted:
#94
Quote Originally Posted by Dogjimbo:
Hey Heff,
3 of us left in my Eliminator Pool.
Out of 3 teams I like most is KC...DALLAS... S.D.
What you thinking? I should have jumped on ATL. But, too late now.
PLUS... What's your top 2 ats for the weekend?
Thanks,
Deacon-Dog. 
I guess I would go with KC. I can make a case for Cleveland but I struggle to see the Jaguars winning SU at Arrowhead.
Top-2 ATS probably gonna be SD and BAL.
BOL Deacon!
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Posted:
#96
Quote Originally Posted by TreyInventor:
Suma Bol this week. What's your opinion on a teaser options den +11.5 and Detroit +16? All detroits losses have been 7 or less this year. Minny seems to be coming back down to earth. I'm a raider fan and like our O but D lacking bad in secondary. Not a fan of Semien but that Den D is the real deal and should hold us below 23 for sure IMO
Suma Bol this week. What's your opinion on a teaser options den +11.5 and Detroit +16? All detroits losses have been 7 or less this year. Minny seems to be coming back down to earth. I'm a raider fan and like our O but D lacking bad in secondary. Not a fan of Semien but that Den D is the real deal and should hold us below 23 for sure IMO
I think those teaser options look pretty solid, but I like Detroit more than Denver. It's hard to believe Vikings are gonna win by 17+. I think it's going to be a 24-14 / 24-17 type of game.
Leaning Raiders but at this point I can't pull the trigger because they come off that five-quarter game on the east coast. Oakland is a heavy sharp side though. Raiders D has been playing much better the last two games. They should have some success vs. Siemian.
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Posted:
#98
Quote Originally Posted by suuma:
Leaning Raiders but at this point I can't pull the trigger because they come off that five-quarter game on the east coast. Oakland is a heavy sharp side though. Raiders D has been playing much better the last two games. They should have some success vs. Siemian.
Leaning Raiders but at this point I can't pull the trigger because they come off that five-quarter game on the east coast. Oakland is a heavy sharp side though. Raiders D has been playing much better the last two games. They should have some success vs. Siemian.
i cannot pull the trigger on da Raiders this weekend. They have been out-gained in every single win of theirs.. and now they go up against top 3 defense in the league... no thanks... no Raiders
on another note: i love KC in the Elim pools... have several entries with them, and one with GB... not sure i can trust Rodgers yet.....
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