Posted:
#1
39-29 (57%) +7.25u
Falcons -3 -110
- Teams off an overtime game are 4-21 ATS on Thursday and are on a 1-15 ATS run since 2002, losing by 10.7 PPG
- Rookie HCs tend to struggle on their first short week. Don't have an exact number but I noticed that over recent years. Last year Bowles & Quinn lost SUATS, this year Adam Gase. Over the years, lot of the rookie head coaches lost on TNF: Zimmer, Arians, Gruden, Rivera, O'Brien, McCarthy, Kelly, Tomsula, Philbin, Schwartz, Trestman, Marrone, Smith, Cable, Gailey, J Harbaugh
- Falcons are on triple revenge
- TB have no quality games since week one vs. ATL. They won vs. Derek Anderson while getting outgained by 3 yards per play, they won vs. SF, they needed 24 penalties (200yds) to stay put with Oakland. OAK outgained them by 356 total yards. Under average circumstances, Raiders win this game by 21+.
Strong leans:
Rams +3 or better: huge overreaction here. Panthers only beat Cardinals in a terrible spot at home, that's it. I actually have both teams pretty even on a neutral field with Goff starting. Rams have a great matchup for Carolina, strong interior run-stopping and pressure from the edges against Remmers and Oher. Don't see Panthers offense doing much in this one. LA come off their bye week, Panthers will travel. Lean Rams.
SD big play: Waiting for -4 at my books. No problem with playing -5 if I don't get it. Line shouldn't be under a TD here. TEN have played a cupcake schedule and are only 4-4. Their wins are against DET (last second), CLE (could have lost), MIA without an OL & JAX who quit on their coach. SD come off a game AT Denver. TEN should feel like paradise for SD. Gonna be a classic beating IMO.
MIA at -3: Jets are a bad Football team right now. They won b2b games vs a banged up Ravens team and a Browns team that did everything possible to blow their 13-pt halftime lead. Fitzpatrick threw a clear interception on their first drive in the 2nd half but Enunwa battled the ball away from Taylor. Drive ended in a TD. Miami are finally clicking on offense with their offensive line being healthy. They are 8-0 SUATS when Pouncey, Albert and James started and finished together. Jets have no edge rush and Sheldon could be traded this week. Tannehill gonna have a field day against a laughable Jets pass defense. If they don't screw it, they should win by 7+ easily. If I don't get -3, Im going to sell to -4.
NYG -3 or better: PHI play their 4th road game in 5 weeks. Giants off their bye should finally have fixed their offensive play-calling. If you can't run, don't run! If you have Cruz, Odell and Shepard, put the ball in their hands! Simple as that. PHI offensive line took another hit with Jason Kelce being hurt. Isn't a good thing to happen when playing against Snacks, Vernon and JPP. Eagles haven't been a good road team. PHIs dink and dunk offense won't be enough at New York.
NO/SF Over: Neither defense will be able to stop the opposing offense in this one IMO. SFs pass protection has been really decent this year but their QBs couldnt capitalize. With one week to prepare against a bad NO defense they should put up some points.
DAL pk in teasers: money. Browns are on their 0-16 mission.
KC pk in teasers: money.
BUF +7 or better: Bills before their bye week and Rex loves prime time. SEA have their SB revenge on deck. If McCoy is healthy, they should be able to control the clock somehow. Defense should be enough to contain that Seahawks offense quite a bit.
BOL this week!
Falcons -3 -110
- Teams off an overtime game are 4-21 ATS on Thursday and are on a 1-15 ATS run since 2002, losing by 10.7 PPG
- Rookie HCs tend to struggle on their first short week. Don't have an exact number but I noticed that over recent years. Last year Bowles & Quinn lost SUATS, this year Adam Gase. Over the years, lot of the rookie head coaches lost on TNF: Zimmer, Arians, Gruden, Rivera, O'Brien, McCarthy, Kelly, Tomsula, Philbin, Schwartz, Trestman, Marrone, Smith, Cable, Gailey, J Harbaugh
- Falcons are on triple revenge
- TB have no quality games since week one vs. ATL. They won vs. Derek Anderson while getting outgained by 3 yards per play, they won vs. SF, they needed 24 penalties (200yds) to stay put with Oakland. OAK outgained them by 356 total yards. Under average circumstances, Raiders win this game by 21+.
Strong leans:
Rams +3 or better: huge overreaction here. Panthers only beat Cardinals in a terrible spot at home, that's it. I actually have both teams pretty even on a neutral field with Goff starting. Rams have a great matchup for Carolina, strong interior run-stopping and pressure from the edges against Remmers and Oher. Don't see Panthers offense doing much in this one. LA come off their bye week, Panthers will travel. Lean Rams.
SD big play: Waiting for -4 at my books. No problem with playing -5 if I don't get it. Line shouldn't be under a TD here. TEN have played a cupcake schedule and are only 4-4. Their wins are against DET (last second), CLE (could have lost), MIA without an OL & JAX who quit on their coach. SD come off a game AT Denver. TEN should feel like paradise for SD. Gonna be a classic beating IMO.
MIA at -3: Jets are a bad Football team right now. They won b2b games vs a banged up Ravens team and a Browns team that did everything possible to blow their 13-pt halftime lead. Fitzpatrick threw a clear interception on their first drive in the 2nd half but Enunwa battled the ball away from Taylor. Drive ended in a TD. Miami are finally clicking on offense with their offensive line being healthy. They are 8-0 SUATS when Pouncey, Albert and James started and finished together. Jets have no edge rush and Sheldon could be traded this week. Tannehill gonna have a field day against a laughable Jets pass defense. If they don't screw it, they should win by 7+ easily. If I don't get -3, Im going to sell to -4.
NYG -3 or better: PHI play their 4th road game in 5 weeks. Giants off their bye should finally have fixed their offensive play-calling. If you can't run, don't run! If you have Cruz, Odell and Shepard, put the ball in their hands! Simple as that. PHI offensive line took another hit with Jason Kelce being hurt. Isn't a good thing to happen when playing against Snacks, Vernon and JPP. Eagles haven't been a good road team. PHIs dink and dunk offense won't be enough at New York.
NO/SF Over: Neither defense will be able to stop the opposing offense in this one IMO. SFs pass protection has been really decent this year but their QBs couldnt capitalize. With one week to prepare against a bad NO defense they should put up some points.
DAL pk in teasers: money. Browns are on their 0-16 mission.
KC pk in teasers: money.
BUF +7 or better: Bills before their bye week and Rex loves prime time. SEA have their SB revenge on deck. If McCoy is healthy, they should be able to control the clock somehow. Defense should be enough to contain that Seahawks offense quite a bit.
BOL this week!
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