suuma's NFL Week Nine

Keep up the good work

suuma,

Denver Broncos +1.5 @ -110

NYG -3 or better: PHI play their 4th road game in 5 weeks. Giants off their bye should finally have fixed their offensive play-calling. If you can't run, don't run! If you have Cruz, Odell and Shepard, put the ball in their hands! Simple as that. PHI offensive line took another hit with Jason Kelce being hurt. Isn't a good thing to happen when playing against Snacks, Vernon and JPP. Eagles haven't been a good road team. PHIs dink and dunk offense won't be enough at New York.

Futures Updated:

CIN Under 9.5 +135
LA Over 7.5 +122
SD win SB 80-1
Add: IND win AFC South +500


Texans are 5-3 and all 5 wins came at home. Out of their remaining 8 games, 4 are on the road, 1 is in Mexico and 3 are at home vs. the Jaguars, Chargers and Bengals. I think they are going to lose vs the Chargers and Bengals and maybe win vs the Jags. I don't see them competitive vs the Raiders on a neutral field. They play at JAX, GB, IND and TEN. I can definitely see them losing 3 of those games. So to sum it up, I am expecting a 3-5 finish at best, much rather a 2-6 finish.

The Colts on the other side have been plagued with injuries and are getting healthier. They also had a brutal schedule, 4 road games first 8 weeks with no bye after the London game. Give them a bye week and we could see a different Colts team. They have a tough schedule but I can see wins vs. GB (yes!), TEN, NYJ, HOU, OAK, JAX. I see them finishing 5-3 with an outside shot at 6-2.

The Titans are the Titans. They played an easy schedule and are only 4-4. Titans have a tough stretch with games at SD, vs. GB, at IND, at CHI, vs. DEN and at KC. Let them go 0-3 on the first 3 and they are going to tank for the draft. Don't see them winning 8 games this year.

Another aspect is the integrity of the NFL. The ratings are low this year and media / fans are complaining that there aren't enough good teams out there. Do you really believe the NFL wants Assweiler in the playoffs? It's going to be another meltdown like last season vs. the Chiefs. They want Andrew Luck. If it's close,  we are going to see some flags. Just my opinion.

Brady, Luck, the rising Raiders, the Denver defense, Rivers with an outside shot if three teams out of that division make the playoffs. Chargers have a very soft schedule and could make it 8-8/9-7. They want to make the AFC playoffs exciting and they won't do it with Assweiler or Mike Mularkey's ground and pound.

Good Luck this week brother-
Do not doubt the Donkeys this week, defense travels.
Although, they will miss Talib for sure.
On the QB issues I only have one thing to say.

There are many things that point to Belichick being the greatest coach of all time but the ONE thing that cements it for me is his ability to make Matt Cassel look like a serviceable and actually pretty good NFL QB.

Remains the greatest coaching achievement to me of all time.

The system is everything! The Offensive line is even more important and it does not hurt to have good receivers.


Look at Matty Ice one year later, highest numbers in the league for a guy who really struggled last year. What changed? Better protection, better scheme and better weapons.

Waste of your time to argue with some of these people, they really have no idea

New York Giants -2.5 -110

Strong situational play on the Giants. The Eagles play their 4th road game in 5 and come off an overtime game on SNF. Teams off an overtime game the Sunday before vs. teams off 9+ days of rest are 22-51 SU and 26-44 ATS. Just last week the Panthers and Packers covered. If the overtime game was on SNF, those teams are 0-8 ATS, losing by almost 10 PPG.

If the Giants show the exact same ridiculous play-calling than the last couple weeks, I am going to put them on my blacklist. They know that the Eagles' plan is to create pressure with their front four against a bad Giants OL and that it's tough to run on them. The Giants have a tremendous matchup advantage with their WRs vs. the Eagles' defensive backs. Let me just remind you how heavily Deshaun Jackson torched Jalen Mills a few weeks ago. If the Giants go pass-first on Sunday, they have a good shot at putting enough points on the board to easily cover that game.

The Eagles offensive line just lost their second starter this week in Allen Barbre. The matchup of New York's DL vs. the Eagles' OL is as bad as the matchup on the other side, yet no one is talking about that. The Eagles aren't built to attack the Giants' weaknesses in the middle of the field and I don't know how they are going to move the ball consistently with that lack of playmakers. Advantage Giants.

Everyone seems to be on the Eagles in a game that looks as an easy home win to me. Giants win 27-14.

Is the public over reacting to Carolina's win last weekend??   Did one win overshadow all the crap before it??   wish someone could add some stats for me that show playing Keenum is +EV here...   

I think they are.

thoughts on balt esp. w/big ben back?

TB have won L3 SUATS vs. Atlanta and were slaughtered on Thursday. If that's your only argument, I feel more confident. BOL this week though

Baltimore all day. Just waiting for the line, hopefully +3.

GL Suuma

I get your point, it's still not an argument for me to take Philly in this spot. BOL this week Lord

No feel for the total, honestly. I will be on the Rams this week. I am just waiting if a 3.5 pops up tomorrow. I think the Panthers are overvalued, they shouldn't lay 3 on the road vs a good defense off a bye that causes matchup problems for them. This line says Panthers -9 at home and that's just wrong. Good luck this week Dribble, have a good remaining weekend!

Btw, the Panthers are on a 0-6 ATS run on the road and 0-4 SU. I don't understand why they should lay -3. This line is an overreaction. The Panthers are an 8-8 team, nothing more. Shaq Thompson is out, Michael Oher is out & Ryan Kalil might be out as well.

...panthers are smoke and mirrors, can't invest with them on road, summa 

gl i like buff and under for that game...i want to bet chargers but I poison them everytime I do....nice write ups. I'll follow on miami too.thx

Baltimore Ravens ATS

It’s pretty funny that early ticket (1,500) and money splits were 80/20 in favor of Pittsburgh even though people didn’t know whether Big Ben would be starting or not. The last time Ben rushed back too early from injury, he went 28/45 for 262 yards 1TD & 3INT in a 10-16 loss vs the Bengals. It was arthroscopic, but a surgery is a surgery and it was not even three weeks ago. Who is really expecting a good performance against a decent D on the road?

The Ravens have by far the best run defense in the league. Their -43.7% is 10.4% better than the 2015’s winning run D from the Jets. Add to that that their front seven has been decimated with injuries. Suggs and Mosley come back this week. They played the Bills (3^rd in run DVOA), Browns (12^th), Raiders (9^th), Redskins (13^th) and Jets (14^th) and pretty much shut down those rushing attacks. Crowell’s 85yd run deflates their YPC number, but fortunately outliers aren’t weighed in DVOA – which is also a basic tool when forecasting, smoothing the outliers. One huge run can only result in 0-7 points and doesn’t indicate whether you move the ball consistently. If you reduce the defensive outcome by the one Crowell run, they gave up 390 yards on 125 carries against five top-15 run offenses by DVOA. This results in 3.12 yards per carry. Le’Veon Bell played four games thus far. Against bottom-10 DVOA run defenses he ran for 8.0 YPC (KC – 23^rd) and  5.3 YPC (MIA – 17^th). Against top-10 DVOA run defenses he ran for 3.3 YPC (NYJ – 3^rd) and 3.9 YPC (NE 6^th). So when forecasting the rushing output for the Steelers, I come up with a range of 3 – 4.2 YPC but would expect it to be around 3.6 ypc. This isn’t enough to put either Landry Jones or a not-100% Ben into comfortable passing situations very often. I truly expect the Steelers offense to struggle this week.

What most people also tend to forget is that this Steelers team hasn’t been a good road team. They are 11-10 SU and 10-11 ATS since 2014.

How about the Ravens? I was very high on them going into the season and thought they would have a legitimate shot at winning their division. Each of their games was a one-score affair. I know some of you don’t like the if-game, but if the Raiders don’t benefit from 3 huge drive starts in BAL territory, Mosley doesn’t fumble the fumble-six against the Redskins und if two BAL defenders don’t run into each other on the Odell last-minute TD, the Ravens are 6-1. Against the Jets they were missing their three best offensive players and two of their best defensive players. I don’t count Dumervil because he hasn’t played yet this season. Now they have lost 4 in a row and we get excellent line value. Yanda and Stanley come back and Flacco finally has some protection because the Steelers can’t generate any pass rush. Cameron Heyward comes back but that should be negated somewhat by the offensive line. I am not really concerned if Steve Smith doesn’t make it this week, because of the way the Steelers defense has played in recent road games.

Summary: I get an improved Ravens team getting points at home with a favorable matchup against a questionable road team with a hurt QB.

Card so far:

ATL -3 -110 W
NYG -2.5 -110
MIA -4 -110
SD -4.5 -110 (2u)
MIN PK / SF +10.5 -115

Will just add Ravens to my early card, maybe a bigger play depending on the re-opener. Looking at 3 more games late.