suuma's NFL Week Nine

I am not overvalueing end zone picks. It's about making decisions and ball placement in the red zone. And if any QB completes just 40% of his red zone passes and throws passes right into defenders despite playing behind the best OL in the NFL, it is margin for concern. If you have three options and take the worst one or throw the ball right into a defender, it is in fact an egregious interception or atleast an egregious interceptable pass.

Why do QBs with no receivers have to complete passes over 26 yards? Why do they have to attempt a pass over 20 yards? Is Prescott a better QB than Brady if he attempts more passes over 20 yards than him? According to your numbers, the Eagles beat the Steelers 34-3 without attempting a pass over 20 yards, so how much worth is the number of 20+ attempts? If Pederson goes for the 52yard FG on SNF, the Eagles have the #1 seed in the NFC right now and they cover the spread as it was well-deserved. And I couldn't care less because I had PHI +10.5 in a teaser.

Agree with Contrarian, there shouldn't be any debate about whether Wentz is the better QB than Prescott after week 8. It's not close. Put Prescott on the Eagles and it would be a disaster.

i'm a big Wentz fan. I think the criticism that he doesn't throw downfield is wrong (for now) for two reasons. First, he gets blitzed a ton and even when not blitzed, the line isn't good enough to give him enough time to go deep downfield. When he does go deep, as others have said, it actually looks pretty good; it's just that his receivers drop a lot.

But now to the bad. in each loss, wentz had an opportunity to win the game either by orchestrating a drive with sufficient time left or by closing out the game. I understand that he is not getting help from receivers or rbs on those drives. But being 0-3 in those situations is ot encouraging, even if excusable.

So turning to dak, he has the o-line to give him time. He has the receivers to catch the ball and he has the rb to prop it all up. There is no comparison to the supporting cast of the eagles. The criticisms of dak are likewise on point: given all these advantages, his decision making and performances (like at the eagles game) can be highly questionable. But there's something to be said for making plays when it counts. For all of Dak's flaws in the eagles game, he led the comeback and he led the drive in OT that sealed it. Rodgers, Brady, Rothlesberger and Peyton have all had terrible games with poor stats and questionable decisions that they found a way to win when it counted.

At this time, it's too early to say that Wentz can't come out on top in these situations or that Dak is particularly good at doing so. But to date, in that lone category (albeit an important one), you have to give Dak the edge over Wentz.

If Dak runs into a team that can both stop the run and the deep ball (tall order of course) he'll be exposed. He isn't accurate on short passes and he doesn't make the decision to take them quickly. Please go watch him vs Bama, when he had penetration up the middle from the defense he didn't know what to do and threw picks. After this week I'll be happy to go against the Cowboys especially in non div games.

Despite being from Philly I'm not really a huge Eagles fan because I only care about picking winners ATS, but Dak is not anywhere near Wentz in terms of what you want in an NFL QB. He's not a good decision maker both on and off the field (had a DUI and also got beat up while drinking in a parking lot in the college off as season)

With his OL and run game he is rarely in 3rd and long and gets plenty of time to throw. Beasley, Dez, Williams and Witten to throw to. He's good because the team is loaded on offense around him. He didn't fall to the 3rd round because scouts are dumb this isn't a Russ Wilson type deal.

All I hear are excuses as to WHY Wentz hasn't yet performed to the level of Prescott. When "decision making" is being used against a QB with two picks in 7 games you guys need your heads checked. I hear biased arguments not sound reasoning.

Thats pretty easy. 3 things....

1. if it were that simple, Dallas would have won more than 4 games last year.

Quote Originally Posted by porcelainfist:

1. if it were that simple, Dallas would have won more than 4 games last year.

2. If their O Line were so dominant, you would obviously have bet them against the Packers

3. What difference does supporting cast have to do with anything? You are all saying that Wentz is better than Prescott with zero facts to back it up, including a worse QB Rating. 

YPA: Dak, 8.2... Wentz, 6.69. 

In spite of this LARGE gap in Yards per attempt, Prescott is only .6 percentage points behind Wentz in completion percentage. 

This is a show me league, if Wentz's team is that awful that he can't compete, so be it. But you can't use Prescott against Alabama as an argument, nor can you use the fictional matchup of Prescott against Denver. 

What you can use is Prescott's current performance against Wentz's current performance. There is no comparison. Wentz loses. 

I stopped reading after that. 

Love the Rams this week! And Philly...

Train, last I spoke to you this was what you had to say:

I stopped reading after the 'what does supporting cast have to do with anything' bit.

Here's what it has to do with it: compare what happened when Wentz threw to Agholor in the red zone vs what happened when Dak threw to Dez on the tying TD. One cannot catch when the ball hits him in the hands, the other brings in the ball with a DB practically wearing his uniform.

You're making yourself look really clueless dude. No one agrees with you so I guess you must be a misundersood genius.

your ad hominem insults have no place here. i bring facts and you "stop reading" so go bury your head in the sand champ, not my business.

Porcelainfist, with all due respect – you can’t be serious. Especially as the guy who explained numerous times on this forum why Tony Romo was always a good QB but never had a good supporting cast before 2014. The supporting cast (also coaches) is the single most important aspect when judging individual performances. You know that as well, you just try to make a case for Prescott. It’s interesting that you use yards per attempt when one of the best QBs of all time (Aaron Rodgers) ranks in the bottom-10 of YPA since 2015 because of his supporting cast.

I think at the point when someone says the supporting cast doesn’t make any difference, we just have to put this conversation on ice.

So far for week 9:

ATL -3 -110
SD -4.5 -110 (2u)
MIN PK / SF +10.5 -115

Bet365 provides great double options which are better than teasers very often.

ATL -3: Good writeup on the ATL falcons suuma and I agree with several of your key points. I think they will cover but since the spread is -4 in my bookie , I'll just play it safe and do 1unit on the ML.

Since 2012, NO have won just 3 away games out of 37 by 11+. This is a bad spot for them.

MIN are a different animal at home, DET offense has been overachieving. I would be shocked if MIN don't win SU.

Cowboys and Chiefs teaser looks awesome 

Great info as always Suuma and as always much appreciated - Good Luck with your plays!!!