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    All Forums | NFL Betting Forum

    suuma's NFL divisional round - does the truth lie in the numbers ?

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    friend
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    friend
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    Posted: Jan. 10, 2015 - 8:48 AM ET #51

    damn i am opposite on both

    oh well, good thread, good read, thanks for all you do.

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    damn i am opposite on both

    oh well, good thread, good read, thanks for all you do.

     
    luckyly
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    Posted: Jan. 10, 2015 - 10:05 AM ET #52

    ALL OF RAVENS JANUARY TRIPS TO FOXBORO,HAVE BEEN LOW SCORES,,

    6PT TEASE,,RAVENS U53-

    HAWKS GO 4 THE KILL,,U45-

    BEST OF LUCK ON UR PLAYS

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    ALL OF RAVENS JANUARY TRIPS TO FOXBORO,HAVE BEEN LOW SCORES,,

    6PT TEASE,,RAVENS U53-

    HAWKS GO 4 THE KILL,,U45-

    BEST OF LUCK ON UR PLAYS

     
    Beningo88
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    Posted: Jan. 10, 2015 - 11:10 AM ET #53

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    LilManPJ
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    Posted: Jan. 10, 2015 - 11:36 AM ET #54

    Suuma like the new avatar I'm with you on Carolina and Baltimore today BOL 
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    Suuma like the new avatar I'm with you on Carolina and Baltimore today BOL 
     
    suuma
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    Posted: Jan. 10, 2015 - 12:43 PM ET #55

    Fellas 
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    Fellas 
     
    Europa
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    Posted: Jan. 10, 2015 - 12:45 PM ET #56

    Quote Originally Posted by suuma:

    Fellas 

    Best of luck, Suuma! 
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    Quote Originally Posted by suuma:

    Fellas 

    Best of luck, Suuma! 
     
    RLeith35
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    Posted: Jan. 10, 2015 - 12:51 PM ET #57

    Oh well. N.E. in their first home playoff games are all Over
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    Oh well. N.E. in their first home playoff games are all Over
     
    mboody1980
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    Posted: Jan. 10, 2015 - 4:08 PM ET #58

    Quote Originally Posted by suuma:

    76-48 YTD (61.3%)

    8-2 L2 weeks, let's ride that streak into the divisional round. I am super busy these weeks, so I won't have a write-up this time. Will just post a few stats regarding the Ravens game. I have futures on Ravens and Panthers, so maybe I am going to hedge a little bit. But that's what I've locked in and would play anyway:

    Carolina Panthers +11 -112
    Baltimore Ravens +7 -116
    Dallas/Packers Over 52.5 -109

    Futures:

    Baltimore Ravens to win SB at 33-1 & 49-1
    Carolina Panthers to win NFC at 22-1 (tailing LC)
    Ravens/Panthers in SB at 436-1

    I've been reading a lot of comments about how bad the Ravens defense and how good the Patriots defense is. Let's take a look at some defensive stats. Those are stats in which the time of possession and number of attempts are eliminated. I always use the efficiency on a single down/attempt to compare teams.

                       Ravens #8 / Patriots #12
                      Ravens #3 / Patriots #9
    Run efficiency:                   Ravens #1 / Patriots #21
    Yards per pass attempt:     Ravens #15 / Patriots #16
    Sack percentage:               Ravens #4 / Patriots #18
    Third down conversion %:  Ravens #16 / Patriots #17
    Red Zone TD %:                 Ravens #2 / Patrios #7
    Offensive PPG:                   Ravens #8 / Patriots #7
    Offensive TD per game:      Ravens #4 / Patriots #6

    Just saying...


    Good luck !

    Those stats don't mean much. Pats strength of schedule was much harder, plus in their wins they play with a late lead and give up garbage pts. Pats are better on all sides of the ball except special teams. I wouldn't be surprised if Balt covers, but I'd be shocked if they lost SU
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    Quote Originally Posted by suuma:

    76-48 YTD (61.3%)

    8-2 L2 weeks, let's ride that streak into the divisional round. I am super busy these weeks, so I won't have a write-up this time. Will just post a few stats regarding the Ravens game. I have futures on Ravens and Panthers, so maybe I am going to hedge a little bit. But that's what I've locked in and would play anyway:

    Carolina Panthers +11 -112
    Baltimore Ravens +7 -116
    Dallas/Packers Over 52.5 -109

    Futures:

    Baltimore Ravens to win SB at 33-1 & 49-1
    Carolina Panthers to win NFC at 22-1 (tailing LC)
    Ravens/Panthers in SB at 436-1

    I've been reading a lot of comments about how bad the Ravens defense and how good the Patriots defense is. Let's take a look at some defensive stats. Those are stats in which the time of possession and number of attempts are eliminated. I always use the efficiency on a single down/attempt to compare teams.

                       Ravens #8 / Patriots #12
                      Ravens #3 / Patriots #9
    Run efficiency:                   Ravens #1 / Patriots #21
    Yards per pass attempt:     Ravens #15 / Patriots #16
    Sack percentage:               Ravens #4 / Patriots #18
    Third down conversion %:  Ravens #16 / Patriots #17
    Red Zone TD %:                 Ravens #2 / Patrios #7
    Offensive PPG:                   Ravens #8 / Patriots #7
    Offensive TD per game:      Ravens #4 / Patriots #6

    Just saying...


    Good luck !

    Those stats don't mean much. Pats strength of schedule was much harder, plus in their wins they play with a late lead and give up garbage pts. Pats are better on all sides of the ball except special teams. I wouldn't be surprised if Balt covers, but I'd be shocked if they lost SU
     
    wmi799
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    Posted: Jan. 10, 2015 - 4:22 PM ET #59

    Nice info and opinions as always Suuma! Thanks for sharing
    Histrionic personality disorder. It's sad
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    Nice info and opinions as always Suuma! Thanks for sharing
     
    suuma
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    Posted: Jan. 10, 2015 - 8:14 PM ET #60

    Ravens 
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    Ravens 
     
    Europa
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    Posted: Jan. 10, 2015 - 8:15 PM ET #61

    Quote Originally Posted by suuma:

    Ravens 

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    Quote Originally Posted by suuma:

    Ravens 

     
    mauiboi27
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    Posted: Jan. 10, 2015 - 10:41 PM ET #62

    Love your plays been following you this whole season. What do you think about tomorrow's games. The Denver vs colts game? Would love to hear what you think
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    Love your plays been following you this whole season. What do you think about tomorrow's games. The Denver vs colts game? Would love to hear what you think
     
    lmb4321
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    Posted: Jan. 11, 2015 - 12:42 AM ET #63

    Suuma,  even having a Pats SB futures bet, I had to take the Ravens and your take gave me more confidence....hope you are having an ice cold Veltins.....
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    Suuma,  even having a Pats SB futures bet, I had to take the Ravens and your take gave me more confidence....hope you are having an ice cold Veltins.....
     
    Dogjimbo
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    Posted: Jan. 11, 2015 - 5:26 AM ET #64

    Suuma,  You still on that Over? 

    Any leans? 

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    Suuma,  You still on that Over? 

    Any leans? 

     
    MTFN50
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    Posted: Jan. 11, 2015 - 7:36 AM ET #65

    as posted  I didn't like Carolina at all thought the point spread as it went up told you that Hawks were going to cover ,Why I didn't like them is the same reason why I don't like the Colts ,Both teams only won the week before because of the team they played not their performance .If the Colts play like they did at home against the Bengals this game will be over in the first half ,TY Hilton is really the only player of course and  Luck that the best AFC defense has to worry about ,And if Luck who is turnover  happy gives the Broncos extra plays this will get ugly   Had the Seattle score nailed 31-17  Lets try again Denver35-27

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    as posted  I didn't like Carolina at all thought the point spread as it went up told you that Hawks were going to cover ,Why I didn't like them is the same reason why I don't like the Colts ,Both teams only won the week before because of the team they played not their performance .If the Colts play like they did at home against the Bengals this game will be over in the first half ,TY Hilton is really the only player of course and  Luck that the best AFC defense has to worry about ,And if Luck who is turnover  happy gives the Broncos extra plays this will get ugly   Had the Seattle score nailed 31-17  Lets try again Denver35-27

     
    suuma
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    Posted: Jan. 11, 2015 - 7:38 AM ET #66

    Yes I am still on the Over. Will have some thoughts on the Broncos game later. Didn't watch the Panthers game but saw they were in a self destructing mode with three turnovers. More first downs and total yards tell me the pick wasn't the worst one.
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    Yes I am still on the Over. Will have some thoughts on the Broncos game later. Didn't watch the Panthers game but saw they were in a self destructing mode with three turnovers. More first downs and total yards tell me the pick wasn't the worst one.
     
    trainwreck66
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    Posted: Jan. 11, 2015 - 11:50 AM ET #67

    bol today suuma
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    bol today suuma
     
    scalabrine
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    Posted: Jan. 11, 2015 - 12:02 PM ET #68

    Quote Originally Posted by suuma:

    Yes I am still on the Over. Will have some thoughts on the Broncos game later. Didn't watch the Panthers game but saw they were in a self destructing mode with three turnovers. More first downs and total yards tell me the pick wasn't the worst one.

     

    You were much, much closer to that Carolina cover than you think. Forget the score.

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    Quote Originally Posted by suuma:

    Yes I am still on the Over. Will have some thoughts on the Broncos game later. Didn't watch the Panthers game but saw they were in a self destructing mode with three turnovers. More first downs and total yards tell me the pick wasn't the worst one.

     

    You were much, much closer to that Carolina cover than you think. Forget the score.

     
    suuma
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    Posted: Jan. 11, 2015 - 12:04 PM ET #69

    Wow I didn't notice the line movement. Wanted to lock in Denver at -7 or maybe -6.5 as a big play, but will make it just a normal play now as the value is gone.


    Denver Broncos -9.5 -110

    I expect the Broncos to roll here. It's not a Colts fade, but a play on the Broncos regarding the mismatches this team is able to create tonight. I see the same matchup then in week 9 when the Chargers played at Denver on a Thursday night game. YOu can almost take my write-up from that game and exchange Chargers into Colts. Chargers had a very good passing offense at this point but no single run game and a suspect defense that looked good at times but didn't face any competition. Today it's probably the best defense in the league against a one-dimensional Colts offense that has to rely on Andrew Luck who will get pressure from the mighty Denver d-line. Last season Luck has had one of the easiest games. He had so many time looking for an open receiver, it was unbelievable. That won't be the case today as the Denver pass rush will cause some major trouble. The Denver offense against the Colts defense ? IMO it's a big mismatch. Any good passing offense is able to torch this defense. Don't take the game against Cincy into consideration when the Bengals played without Green and Gresham for four and three quarters. Will be a whole different story. Peyton Manning can torch them a lot and I expect him to do so. Seeing a 14+ Denver win. Andrew Luck's time will come for sure, but their playoff run will be over tonight.


    Sticking with the Over in the GB/DAL game. Can't wait for this matchup to begin. Have a good evening fellas !
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    Wow I didn't notice the line movement. Wanted to lock in Denver at -7 or maybe -6.5 as a big play, but will make it just a normal play now as the value is gone.


    Denver Broncos -9.5 -110

    I expect the Broncos to roll here. It's not a Colts fade, but a play on the Broncos regarding the mismatches this team is able to create tonight. I see the same matchup then in week 9 when the Chargers played at Denver on a Thursday night game. YOu can almost take my write-up from that game and exchange Chargers into Colts. Chargers had a very good passing offense at this point but no single run game and a suspect defense that looked good at times but didn't face any competition. Today it's probably the best defense in the league against a one-dimensional Colts offense that has to rely on Andrew Luck who will get pressure from the mighty Denver d-line. Last season Luck has had one of the easiest games. He had so many time looking for an open receiver, it was unbelievable. That won't be the case today as the Denver pass rush will cause some major trouble. The Denver offense against the Colts defense ? IMO it's a big mismatch. Any good passing offense is able to torch this defense. Don't take the game against Cincy into consideration when the Bengals played without Green and Gresham for four and three quarters. Will be a whole different story. Peyton Manning can torch them a lot and I expect him to do so. Seeing a 14+ Denver win. Andrew Luck's time will come for sure, but their playoff run will be over tonight.


    Sticking with the Over in the GB/DAL game. Can't wait for this matchup to begin. Have a good evening fellas !
     
    suuma
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    Posted: Jan. 11, 2015 - 12:07 PM ET #70

    Quote Originally Posted by scalabrine:

     

    You were much, much closer to that Carolina cover than you think. Forget the score.



    Good to hear. Will watch the replay during the week. I am shocked to see Rex Ryan signing with the Bills. That's bad for the Jets. Rex will be surrounded with the staff he likes to work with. Give the Bills a good QB and you have a playoff team.
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    Quote Originally Posted by scalabrine:

     

    You were much, much closer to that Carolina cover than you think. Forget the score.



    Good to hear. Will watch the replay during the week. I am shocked to see Rex Ryan signing with the Bills. That's bad for the Jets. Rex will be surrounded with the staff he likes to work with. Give the Bills a good QB and you have a playoff team.
     
    Dinosaur_Man
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    Posted: Jan. 11, 2015 - 12:20 PM ET #71

    Quote Originally Posted by suuma:



    Good to hear. Will watch the replay during the week. I am shocked to see Rex Ryan signing with the Bills. That's bad for the Jets. Rex will be surrounded with the staff he likes to work with. Give the Bills a good QB and you have a playoff team.
    rex with buf's defensive personel with some control to put his coaching staff together!! AFC east better watch out!!!
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    Quote Originally Posted by suuma:



    Good to hear. Will watch the replay during the week. I am shocked to see Rex Ryan signing with the Bills. That's bad for the Jets. Rex will be surrounded with the staff he likes to work with. Give the Bills a good QB and you have a playoff team.
    rex with buf's defensive personel with some control to put his coaching staff together!! AFC east better watch out!!!
     
    suuma
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    Posted: Jan. 11, 2015 - 12:21 PM ET #72

    Quote Originally Posted by Dinosaur_Man:

    rex with buf's defensive personel with some control to put his coaching staff together!! AFC east better watch out!!!



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    Quote Originally Posted by Dinosaur_Man:

    rex with buf's defensive personel with some control to put his coaching staff together!! AFC east better watch out!!!



     
    suuma
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    Posted: Jan. 11, 2015 - 12:22 PM ET #73

    AFC East is likely going to be a very good division in 2015.
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    AFC East is likely going to be a very good division in 2015.
     
    Europa
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    Posted: Jan. 11, 2015 - 12:41 PM ET #74

    "I never came here to kiss Bill Belichick's, you know, rings,"-Rex Ryan on singing with the NY Jets.

    Rex is coming for Bill, just for one more time.  
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    "I never came here to kiss Bill Belichick's, you know, rings,"-Rex Ryan on singing with the NY Jets.

    Rex is coming for Bill, just for one more time.  
     
     
    suuma
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    Posted: Jan. 11, 2015 - 12:49 PM ET #75

    Quote Originally Posted by Europa:

    "I never came here to kiss Bill Belichick's, you know, rings,"-Rex Ryan on singing with the NY Jets.

    Rex is coming for Bill, just for one more time.  



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    Quote Originally Posted by Europa:

    "I never came here to kiss Bill Belichick's, you know, rings,"-Rex Ryan on singing with the NY Jets.

    Rex is coming for Bill, just for one more time.  



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