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suuma's NFL divisional round - does the truth lie in the numbers ?

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Posted: #26
Quote Originally Posted by SITERBUN:

I see lot of people here on board with Carolina. Jump off ship before leave dock! We're looking 3 touchdown win by Seattle! Cam gonna need huge game from Greg Olsen in order to come close. With Seattle's mixed package backfield, Cam gonna be running sideline to sideline. Really how many road dog people think gonna win this weekend? We all know only room for one, and Colt have best chance at that one! Reason point spread so high for this game, because gonna be dominant victory...SITERBUN no fall for sucker bet!

Posted by 49er fan.


Thanks for your comment.

1. If you think Seattle wins by 21 points, how many points will they need to score to win by that margin ? Seahawks are no scoring machines and they play against one heck of a defense. How many points will the Panthers score ? Let's admit they score just 7 or 10 points here. So you think Seattle score 28-31 points at least ? Sorry, I just cannot see that.

2. The spread is 11, because bookmakers have balanced money splits at this number. It has been moving slightly to 10.5, so Panthers backers have put few more coins on the dog.

Good luck this week!


 
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Posted: #27
Quote Originally Posted by TheForbes777:

Up in the air on the Ravens vs. Pats. Not sure about the Carolina game. Rolling Denver and probably Dallas depending on sone research. Great season man!


I like Denver as well. Just waiting if the line comes down to 6.5 at decens odds. Denver defense will create mismatches and I am not very high on the Colts defense.

BOL this week, Forbes!
 
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Posted: #28
Will follow the Rodgers injury during the weekend. If I have the feeling he won't be 80-90%, I will buy out of the total.

Are there any updates on his injury ? It scares me that he didn't practice since December 28th.
 
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Posted: #29
Suuma, best of luck....like all your picks....but I can see how the other side can cover also....this is a very tight spread on all the games this week.....will look more deeply into this............Thanks for your input as always.....
 
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Posted: #30
Hey Suuma, great season and stay hot. I disagree with you on the Panthers, but I like your over play in GB, and I'm with you on Baltimore and I have some Raven props as well from pre-season.

GL man.
 
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Posted: #31

Hey buddy,

Does the weather in GB scare you on that total? 

I'm starting to lean UNDER if it stays cold and windy.  Just wondering.

Like CAR and Balty.  GL, Heff.  

 
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Posted: #32
Thanks fellas.

Another thing I've been reading this week is that this Ravens team is far away from the 2012 one.

In fact, the 2014 defense has a slight edge over the 2012 one statistically. Joe Flacco was close from posting career-high numbers in the regular season and they have a good running game.
 
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Posted: #33
Quote Originally Posted by Dogjimbo:

Hey buddy,

Does the weather in GB scare you on that total? 

I'm starting to lean UNDER if it stays cold and windy.  Just wondering.

Like CAR and Balty.  GL, Heff.  



IF it will be very windy and Rodgers won't be practicing much, I will definitely buy out of the total
 
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Posted: #34
I absolutely love Carolina. We have a winner. Have a good one, Suuma
 
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Posted: #35
 Brother I'm with you in most except Carolina I see no value in betting cam newton until he proves me wrong but 11 is a generous line no doubt.     Greenbay I like the over as we'll but just can't pull the trigger on it.    
 
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Posted: #36
Quote Originally Posted by NFL-1975:

 Brother I'm with you in most except Carolina I see no value in betting cam newton until he proves me wrong but 11 is a generous line no doubt.     Greenbay I like the over as we'll but just can't pull the trigger on it.    


What exactly don't you like about Cam Newton ? He has an average receiving core and a very young o-line. No doubt he has been an average or maybe below average passer this season, but he doesn't have the stuff to work with.

Since Wilson joined the NFL, Cam Newton has just 12 rushing yards less (1865) but eight rushing TDs more than Wilson while playing a fewer amount of games.

BOL this week. Let's get the Ravens together then!
 
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Posted: #37
Quote Originally Posted by suuma:



I respectfullly have to disagree here. I am a numbers guy. The Browns and Texans defenses definitely rank ahead of New England.



Let me reclarify my sentence I said it wrong.

New England's defense might be the best Joe Flacco has faced against in their last 5 head to head matchups 

Patriots secondary has been their Achilles the last few years and with Revis in there now the secondary is much improved than the one Flacco went up against in 2012 and 2011. 

But another stat I think should be worth looking into are the penalties. New England has committed 120 penalties this season ranking them worst in penalties per game and were punished  with -1080 yards lost. The Ravens have committed 110 penalties for -870 yardage. A few pass interference calls should help the Ravens thanks to an overly aggressive Brandon Browner

Also the cold weather should have an effect on this game. Its going to be under 18 degrees with winds at 10-15 mph... projected to be even colder than the GB/DAL game. It'll be a little more difficult to pass in these conditions.. Just ask Peyton

Last time Ravens played in 18 degree weather was against the Broncos in divisional round... Deja vu?!
Sip on that plus money honey!
 
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Posted: #38
Nice write up summa.

Scale of 1-10 confidence in the Panthers (asking because you added that "could SEA win by 17? Yeah caveat. You don't usually say things like that)??
 
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Posted: #39
Quote Originally Posted by Digitalkarma:


Let me reclarify my sentence I said it wrong.

New England's defense might be the best Joe Flacco has faced against in their last 5 head to head matchups 

Patriots secondary has been their Achilles the last few years and with Revis in there now the secondary is much improved than the one Flacco went up against in 2012 and 2011. 

But another stat I think should be worth looking into are the penalties. New England has committed 120 penalties this season ranking them worst in penalties per game and were punished  with -1080 yards lost. The Ravens have committed 110 penalties for -870 yardage. A few pass interference calls should help the Ravens thanks to an overly aggressive Brandon Browner

Also the cold weather should have an effect on this game. Its going to be under 18 degrees with winds at 10-15 mph... projected to be even colder than the GB/DAL game. It'll be a little more difficult to pass in these conditions.. Just ask Peyton

Last time Ravens played in 18 degree weather was against the Broncos in divisional round... Deja vu?!


Okay that's a whole different story then. Based on my read on the game, an increasing wind speed would favor the Ravens. Wind has a negative effect on the passing game and Tom Brady need to be very accurate tonight as I believe the Ravens will shut down the run.

I like that Deja vu.
 
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Posted: #40
Quote Originally Posted by scalabrine:

Nice write up summa.

Scale of 1-10 confidence in the Panthers (asking because you added that "could SEA win by 17? Yeah caveat. You don't usually say things like that)??


Tough question, scal. Based on a scale of 1-10 I would hardly play  anything below 5 so I would guess it's around 7-8 for the Panthers.
 
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Posted: #41
Quote Originally Posted by suuma:



What exactly don't you like about Cam Newton ? He has an average receiving core and a very young o-line. No doubt he has been an average or maybe below average passer this season, but he doesn't have the stuff to work with.

Since Wilson joined the NFL, Cam Newton has just 12 rushing yards less (1865) but eight rushing TDs more than Wilson while playing a fewer amount of games.

BOL this week. Let's get the Ravens together then!

Let me answer that for him. Cam's brain is what he doesn't like. It's not just about stats buddy. It's about poise, smarts, timing, adaptability and a winning attitude/body language. Wilson has all of that and more.
 
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Posted: #42

Nice insight brother, changed the way I was looking at Carolina game! Thanks for everything this year, greatly appreciated!

 
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Posted: #43
Quote Originally Posted by suuma:

76-48 YTD (61.3%)

I've been reading a lot of comments about how bad the Ravens defense and how good the Patriots defense is. Let's take a look at some defensive stats. Those are stats in which the time of possession and number of attempts are eliminated. I always use the efficiency on a single down/attempt to compare teams.

                   Ravens #8 / Patriots #12
                  Ravens #3 / Patriots #9
Run efficiency:                   Ravens #1 / Patriots #21
Yards per pass attempt:     Ravens #15 / Patriots #16
Sack percentage:               Ravens #4 / Patriots #18
Third down conversion %:  Ravens #16 / Patriots #17
Red Zone TD %:                 Ravens #2 / Patrios #7
Offensive PPG:                   Ravens #8 / Patriots #7
Offensive TD per game:      Ravens #4 / Patriots #6

Just saying...


Good luck !


Patriots 6th hardest schedule this year.

Ravens 30th hardest schedule this year.

For being a numbers guy, you missed the most important piece of the puzzle.

GL this weekend. 
 
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Posted: #44
Quote Originally Posted by begginerboy:


Let me answer that for him. Cam's brain is what he doesn't like. It's not just about stats buddy. It's about poise, smarts, timing, adaptability and a winning attitude/body language. Wilson has all of that and more.


Okay I get that point.
 
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Posted: #45
Quote Originally Posted by NNYHILLBILLY:

Nice insight brother, changed the way I was looking at Carolina game! Thanks for everything this year, greatly appreciated!



Thank you
 
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Posted: #46
Quote Originally Posted by HeadOverHeart:



Patriots 6th hardest schedule this year.

Ravens 30th hardest schedule this year.

For being a numbers guy, you missed the most important piece of the puzzle.

GL this weekend. 


Ravens played the 21st (0.495) hardest schedule this year, Patriots the 7th (0.529) hardest one. I didn't miss that, but I also didn't mentioned it because I was talking about only defensive stats. If you know an accurate rating for defensive SOS, please give me a heads-up.

If not, I can only do the math and calculate the average ranked total offense both teams have played against in terms of yards per play:

Ravens: #16 (excluding the first playoff game)
Patriots: #19

So I guess, we can of course compare those defensive stats by both teams. Remember, the Patriots play in the AFC East.

BOL this weekend.
 
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Posted: #47
BOL SUUMA
 
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Posted: #48
Good luck buddy, doesn't matter what any of us have in our mind for these games BUT this isn't the same BAL team like in years past, they no longer have a D they can lean on and just depend on their O making just enough plays, while this is probably the best D NE had in years with their O players all coming in healthy. 
 
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Posted: #49
Right there with you with CAR, I actually see them having a chance at wining this one, but not willing to throw money on it yet......yet..........YET 
 
 
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Posted: #50
GL this weekend suuma *handshake
What do you call an Eternal Optimist? An accordion player with a beeper!
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