if one would take both patriots and Dallas at this juncture you recieve a 1 to 1.45 rate of return if they end in the super bowl no matter how this gamewas settled . if dallas and not the pats. you still have availuble hedge at 1.5 to 1 guaranteed.if Pats made it without the cowboys, you have a 1.07 -1.125 gauranteed.
only possible scenario to not recieve any would be that both teams are eliminated in divisional or championship games at home.
if one would take both patriots and Dallas at this juncture you recieve a 1 to 1.45 rate of return if they end in the super bowl no matter how this gamewas settled . if dallas and not the pats. you still have availuble hedge at 1.5 to 1 guaranteed.if Pats made it without the cowboys, you have a 1.07 -1.125 gauranteed.
only possible scenario to not recieve any would be that both teams are eliminated in divisional or championship games at home.
Steelers are my value pick this post season. +975 at 5dimes. Only a very slight dog at KC, then probably around +4.5 at NE.
I am not so sure that Pitts would be a slight dog in a Pitts/KC match-up as the Steelers blew them out earlier in the year.
All things considered, Ben having two Superbowl wins, Bell and Brown considered among the best might sway the line-maker to list them as the favorite IMO.
Of course KC has the better D and better special teams and home-field is huge...but public perception being what it is, the lines-maker might see it differently.
For sure Pitts would be a dog going into Gillette as Brady is 8-2 lifetime in his starts against Pittsburgh including two AFC championship games.
In all of these years, Ben and Brady have only faced each other once in the postseason and that was in Ben's rookie season 2004 and the Pats blew them out.
Quote Originally Posted by wildcat95:
Steelers are my value pick this post season. +975 at 5dimes. Only a very slight dog at KC, then probably around +4.5 at NE.
I am not so sure that Pitts would be a slight dog in a Pitts/KC match-up as the Steelers blew them out earlier in the year.
All things considered, Ben having two Superbowl wins, Bell and Brown considered among the best might sway the line-maker to list them as the favorite IMO.
Of course KC has the better D and better special teams and home-field is huge...but public perception being what it is, the lines-maker might see it differently.
For sure Pitts would be a dog going into Gillette as Brady is 8-2 lifetime in his starts against Pittsburgh including two AFC championship games.
In all of these years, Ben and Brady have only faced each other once in the postseason and that was in Ben's rookie season 2004 and the Pats blew them out.
if one would take both patriots and Dallas at this juncture you recieve a 1 to 1.45 rate of return if they end in the super bowl no matter how this gamewas settled . if dallas and not the pats. you still have availuble hedge at 1.5 to 1 guaranteed.if Pats made it without the cowboys, you have a 1.07 -1.125 gauranteed.
only possible scenario to not recieve any would be that both teams are eliminated in divisional or championship games at home.
I'm not following here. If NE played someone other than Dal, you would most likely not be able to hedge and make any profit.
Regardless, this is probably the opposite of the way you should be looking at it. IMO the only tangible advantage ne/dal have over 3 or 4 other teams is home field advantage and/or bye... But that's already way overreflected in the prices.
Quote Originally Posted by nature1970:
if one would take both patriots and Dallas at this juncture you recieve a 1 to 1.45 rate of return if they end in the super bowl no matter how this gamewas settled . if dallas and not the pats. you still have availuble hedge at 1.5 to 1 guaranteed.if Pats made it without the cowboys, you have a 1.07 -1.125 gauranteed.
only possible scenario to not recieve any would be that both teams are eliminated in divisional or championship games at home.
I'm not following here. If NE played someone other than Dal, you would most likely not be able to hedge and make any profit.
Regardless, this is probably the opposite of the way you should be looking at it. IMO the only tangible advantage ne/dal have over 3 or 4 other teams is home field advantage and/or bye... But that's already way overreflected in the prices.
5dimes has hypothetical matchups posted. KC is -3 +100 vs Pitt, then +5.5 vs NE. There is nothing yet for Pitt vs. NE, I am assuming it would be around +4.5. You are right, the public will likely pounce on Steelers at KC, probably a pick em by game time.
5dimes has hypothetical matchups posted. KC is -3 +100 vs Pitt, then +5.5 vs NE. There is nothing yet for Pitt vs. NE, I am assuming it would be around +4.5. You are right, the public will likely pounce on Steelers at KC, probably a pick em by game time.
I'm not following here. If NE played someone other than Dal, you would most likely not be able to hedge and make any profit.
Regardless, this is probably the opposite of the way you should be looking at it. IMO the only tangible advantage ne/dal have over 3 or 4 other teams is home field advantage and/or bye... But that's already way overreflected in the prices.
as long as you keep hedging with plus values meaning you take more than your wager every step you be guaranteed a return of investment. by starting with the favorite you have a 90% propibility of payoff. starting with the two favorites outside of march madness. guarantee return of 98%in all other championship games, betting future favorites and hedging the other build value.
Quote Originally Posted by rm990:
I'm not following here. If NE played someone other than Dal, you would most likely not be able to hedge and make any profit.
Regardless, this is probably the opposite of the way you should be looking at it. IMO the only tangible advantage ne/dal have over 3 or 4 other teams is home field advantage and/or bye... But that's already way overreflected in the prices.
as long as you keep hedging with plus values meaning you take more than your wager every step you be guaranteed a return of investment. by starting with the favorite you have a 90% propibility of payoff. starting with the two favorites outside of march madness. guarantee return of 98%in all other championship games, betting future favorites and hedging the other build value.
as long as you keep hedging with plus values meaning you take more than your wager every step you be guaranteed a return of investment. by starting with the favorite you have a 90% propibility of payoff. starting with the two favorites outside of march madness. guarantee return of 98%in all other championship games, betting future favorites and hedging the other build value.
Ok let's play this out.... You have a hypothetical 1000 on both NE and Dal.
If Dallas does not make the super bowl you're down 1000
Let's say NE does make it and you're now alive for 1850 on them... This would be a profit of 850 after you deduct your Cowboys loss.
You want to hedge but the problem is you need a money line of +235 on the patriots opponent to even hedge out and break even on the whole deal. Anything less than that number and you cannot guarantee yourself a break even. At a money line of +250, you profit 2% of your total risk which is ridiculous considering the likelihood of neither dal or ne making it is much higher than 2%
I understand there are other permutations but they are equally bad scenarios when you start bringing hedging into it.... I guess the bottom line is you can't turn a negative expectation into a positive expectation. The value is either there or it isn't. I think most bettors would agree that those prices on dal and ne are negative expectation bets
Quote Originally Posted by nature1970:
as long as you keep hedging with plus values meaning you take more than your wager every step you be guaranteed a return of investment. by starting with the favorite you have a 90% propibility of payoff. starting with the two favorites outside of march madness. guarantee return of 98%in all other championship games, betting future favorites and hedging the other build value.
Ok let's play this out.... You have a hypothetical 1000 on both NE and Dal.
If Dallas does not make the super bowl you're down 1000
Let's say NE does make it and you're now alive for 1850 on them... This would be a profit of 850 after you deduct your Cowboys loss.
You want to hedge but the problem is you need a money line of +235 on the patriots opponent to even hedge out and break even on the whole deal. Anything less than that number and you cannot guarantee yourself a break even. At a money line of +250, you profit 2% of your total risk which is ridiculous considering the likelihood of neither dal or ne making it is much higher than 2%
I understand there are other permutations but they are equally bad scenarios when you start bringing hedging into it.... I guess the bottom line is you can't turn a negative expectation into a positive expectation. The value is either there or it isn't. I think most bettors would agree that those prices on dal and ne are negative expectation bets
But Patriots win (with little value). Most places it is +160 already
I don't know man. For me it's difficult to back a team at the start of the playoffs whose odds (11) are lower than their weighted DVOA (14).
You have to at least trust the numbers to a certain extent and realize Seattle has taken a step back. Mostly due to their poor offensive line. They'd be a surprise to me... Any respect they're garnering has to be based on past season's successes
Quote Originally Posted by Gavinnick:
Seattle has all the value
But Patriots win (with little value). Most places it is +160 already
I don't know man. For me it's difficult to back a team at the start of the playoffs whose odds (11) are lower than their weighted DVOA (14).
You have to at least trust the numbers to a certain extent and realize Seattle has taken a step back. Mostly due to their poor offensive line. They'd be a surprise to me... Any respect they're garnering has to be based on past season's successes
without dallas pats would run neg 350, hence without pats dallas neg could be neg 200 but to whom? who takes the pats in foxborough ?
run the other side, welcome to Jerry's world. who goes into Dallas end ups conference champions, Atlanta the only other team in the nfc to face the pats. and again they have to travel to dallas and win....
without dallas pats would run neg 350, hence without pats dallas neg could be neg 200 but to whom? who takes the pats in foxborough ?
run the other side, welcome to Jerry's world. who goes into Dallas end ups conference champions, Atlanta the only other team in the nfc to face the pats. and again they have to travel to dallas and win....
hence taking the two teams gives a reasonable 95% recieve plus money. 75% reasonable to take .30 to 2.00 return in 30 days or so. having both Dallas and Patriots as the superbowl futures.
15% probability to have Pats vs Atlanta 5% probility to have (afc) vs atlanta and 5% for all other probabilities.
hence taking the two teams gives a reasonable 95% recieve plus money. 75% reasonable to take .30 to 2.00 return in 30 days or so. having both Dallas and Patriots as the superbowl futures.
15% probability to have Pats vs Atlanta 5% probility to have (afc) vs atlanta and 5% for all other probabilities.
hence taking the two teams gives a reasonable 95% recieve plus money. 75% reasonable to take .30 to 2.00 return in 30 days or so. having both Dallas and Patriots as the superbowl futures.
15% probability to have Pats vs Atlanta 5% probility to have (afc) vs atlanta and 5% for all other probabilities.
Good luck... I don't see what could go wrong...
Quote Originally Posted by nature1970:
hence taking the two teams gives a reasonable 95% recieve plus money. 75% reasonable to take .30 to 2.00 return in 30 days or so. having both Dallas and Patriots as the superbowl futures.
15% probability to have Pats vs Atlanta 5% probility to have (afc) vs atlanta and 5% for all other probabilities.
Seattle Seahwks value bet, NFC Champs X5 & SB X10 , when they lose to GB , Away they favored -3 & made 6 turnover, Good offense, Better Defense, Great Special Teams
Seattle Seahwks value bet, NFC Champs X5 & SB X10 , when they lose to GB , Away they favored -3 & made 6 turnover, Good offense, Better Defense, Great Special Teams
I am not so sure that Pitts would be a slight dog in a Pitts/KC match-up as the Steelers blew them out earlier in the year.
All things considered, Ben having two Superbowl wins, Bell and Brown considered among the best might sway the line-maker to list them as the favorite IMO.
Of course KC has the better D and better special teams and home-field is huge...but public perception being what it is, the lines-maker might see it differently.
For sure Pitts would be a dog going into Gillette as Brady is 8-2 lifetime in his starts against Pittsburgh including two AFC championship games.
In all of these years, Ben and Brady have only faced each other once in the postseason and that was in Ben's rookie season 2004 and the Pats blew them out.
well, i like your reasoning but you must not have been around the odds-making circles for a long time cuz there is absolutely NO way that Pitt would be favored at KC... the line will be KC favored somewhere between -1 and -3 depending on how big the Steelers blow out the Fish...
even if you believe these teams are 'evenly' matched, the home field advantage of KC is one of the largest in the entire NFL... i've been told that although most odds-makers give the home team a 3 pt home field advantage, when in KC or Seattle, that becomes a 4 pt home field advantage...
i think that it will be ONE HELLUVA GAME and cant wait to see it.. unfortunately, i have no clue as to who will win.........
Quote Originally Posted by lancer89074:
I am not so sure that Pitts would be a slight dog in a Pitts/KC match-up as the Steelers blew them out earlier in the year.
All things considered, Ben having two Superbowl wins, Bell and Brown considered among the best might sway the line-maker to list them as the favorite IMO.
Of course KC has the better D and better special teams and home-field is huge...but public perception being what it is, the lines-maker might see it differently.
For sure Pitts would be a dog going into Gillette as Brady is 8-2 lifetime in his starts against Pittsburgh including two AFC championship games.
In all of these years, Ben and Brady have only faced each other once in the postseason and that was in Ben's rookie season 2004 and the Pats blew them out.
well, i like your reasoning but you must not have been around the odds-making circles for a long time cuz there is absolutely NO way that Pitt would be favored at KC... the line will be KC favored somewhere between -1 and -3 depending on how big the Steelers blow out the Fish...
even if you believe these teams are 'evenly' matched, the home field advantage of KC is one of the largest in the entire NFL... i've been told that although most odds-makers give the home team a 3 pt home field advantage, when in KC or Seattle, that becomes a 4 pt home field advantage...
i think that it will be ONE HELLUVA GAME and cant wait to see it.. unfortunately, i have no clue as to who will win.........
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