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roondog248

Veteran

Joined: Jul, 2012

Posts: 1219

Posted: Oct. 21, 2012 - 5:13 PM ET #226

Quote Originally Posted by giancarlo12:

Can you tease selling points? really? what bookie do you use? do you think pits/cin game can be under 39 pts. i teased to over 34.5 so looks like were in opposite sides.

I'm soryy I had that backwards...U51 & over 39.5

BetVirus

Prospect

Joined: Jun, 2011

Posts: 398

Posted: Oct. 21, 2012 - 5:17 PM ET #227

Quote Originally Posted by si1ly:

8:30 EST - Pittsburgh Steelers @ Cincinnati Bengals Over 45 (-105)

8 of last 10 stayed under 45 h2h.
Solid under play for me. They like play in defence with each other and scored not more than 48 points in last 10 their games.
Same situation as first your total.

kaponofor3

Legend

Joined: Nov, 2007

Posts: 35430

Posted: Oct. 21, 2012 - 5:19 PM ET #228

Quote Originally Posted by BigTenWatto:

Hey Silly, continue to love your work. I have a question for you about capping stuff that is not really relate-able to numbers.

I used the method you laid for the StL - SF game to cap all the games today. The NYG-Was game produced a over/under total that was a more than 10 point variance from the Vegas line. Seems a no-brainer. So, I bet it the over.

There has been 6 (SIX) turnovers in that game. Obviously, this killed the over. Huge, clock-killing drives, capped by ints and fumbles. How do you factor in t/o's in your capping? Based on the RPI system you devised this should have worked and based on the number of times these two have been in the red-zone it should be easily over.

Lastly, the Redskins have also had 2 (TWO) touchdowns overturned by penalty - something else I am not sure you can cap for.

Just looking for some input from the master. Thanks.

You really can't. They are the great random variance that exists in this thing we do. Its well known that year to year, turnovers tend to be random in terms of their distribution. There are a few outliers, but over time, they regress to the mean.

BigTenWatto

Rookie

Joined: Dec, 2009

Posts: 818

Posted: Oct. 21, 2012 - 5:27 PM ET #229

Quote Originally Posted by sabermaths:

hey man dont be disrespectful asking a question at the wrong time, ok? thats pretty messed up...no one cares about your questions.

Thanks Kaponofor3, I figured as much.

It appears this sabermaths guy is a complete asshole.

si1ly

Banned

Joined: Oct, 2008

Posts: 12061

Posted: Oct. 21, 2012 - 5:31 PM ET #230

Yeah, Kap's answer is right on. The fact is, footballs are a funky shape. They tend to do unpredictable things when they're thrown and bounced on the ground. Noway to really predict a turnover battle. Best you can do is check sack and interception rates to see if a team is prone to a disadvantage. Whether it actually plays out in the real world is impossible to reasonably predict. It pretty much boils down to dumb luck in the long run.

giancarlo12

Prospect

Joined: Aug, 2012

Posts: 144

Posted: Oct. 21, 2012 - 5:31 PM ET #231

silly. i know you have over 45 pitt/cin game. but out of curiosity, what is your model say the projected total is for this game.

si1ly

Banned

Joined: Oct, 2008

Posts: 12061

Posted: Oct. 21, 2012 - 5:37 PM ET #232

BetVirus

Prospect

Joined: Jun, 2011

Posts: 398

Posted: Oct. 21, 2012 - 5:48 PM ET #233

Quote Originally Posted by si1ly:

51

no way. 20-16 type game

mrwings01

Prospect

Joined: Oct, 2009

Posts: 27

Posted: Oct. 21, 2012 - 5:51 PM ET #234

hey silly.. im soo pissed off man lost that under in the stl game 2..

i feel i went perfect today. i hit redskins+ over in buffalo game, saints and that under in that gb game.. i was soo excited to see the redskins come back just to see my under game turned into shit.

soo blown away. either way still up for the week and i got the cinni plus over tonight pk and 45 :) hope to bring it home so i can play chi tomorrow night

davopnz

Banned

Joined: Sep, 2010

Posts: 6686

Posted: Oct. 21, 2012 - 6:00 PM ET #235

i know you dont like 2nd half plays but the pats look a great bet...

Crashdavis565

MVP

Joined: Dec, 2007

Posts: 15772

Posted: Oct. 21, 2012 - 6:06 PM ET #236

The public has not figured out the Steelers are no longer the Steelers.

Cannot run it and cannot play D.

Strong lean here to the over.

BetVirus

Prospect

Joined: Jun, 2011

Posts: 398

Posted: Oct. 21, 2012 - 6:16 PM ET #237

Quote Originally Posted by Crashdavis565:

The public has not figured out the Steelers are no longer the Steelers.

Cannot run it and cannot play D.

Strong lean here to the over.

Both teams are very confident in their defence.
No way this game goes Over

si1ly

Banned

Joined: Oct, 2008

Posts: 12061

Posted: Oct. 21, 2012 - 6:31 PM ET #238

I'm sure with the amount of money that the Bills spent that they're 'confident in their defense'. Some good confidence does you if you suck.

BigLick08

Prospect

Joined: Apr, 2008

Posts: 323

Posted: Oct. 21, 2012 - 6:45 PM ET #239

NFL
NFL

2 TEAM TEASER FB 6PTS / BK 4 PTS
[435] TOTAL o40-110 (B+6)
(PIT STEELERS vrs CIN BENGALS)
[438] CHI BEARS -½-110 (B+6) 5 Units

BamaTaxMan

Veteran

Joined: Oct, 2012

Posts: 1574

Posted: Oct. 21, 2012 - 6:54 PM ET #240

Si1ly, my o/u is up to 46.5 on PIT/CIN.

Feedback?

si1ly

Banned

Joined: Oct, 2008

Posts: 12061

Posted: Oct. 21, 2012 - 6:56 PM ET #241

Quote Originally Posted by BamaTaxMan:

Si1ly, my o/u is up to 46.5 on PIT/CIN.

Feedback?

inevitable line movement. Definitely not unexpected as the fair value for this total is much higher than 45... 46.5....48...

I doubt it gets too much higher if anything, you might catch a better line if you wait. I still like it at that number, obviously the lower the better though.

dirtracer29

Prospect

Joined: Oct, 2009

Posts: 23

Posted: Oct. 21, 2012 - 7:08 PM ET #242

What are you looking at for SNF si1ly?

statsman49

Prospect

Joined: Oct, 2012

Posts: 64

Posted: Oct. 21, 2012 - 7:36 PM ET #243

Quote Originally Posted by dirtracer29:

What are you looking at for SNF si1ly?

Take the time to read above you, clearly stated many times Over 45 was his play for SNF

SocrAndrew7

Prospect

Joined: Jan, 2009

Posts: 210

Posted: Oct. 21, 2012 - 8:06 PM ET #244

Quote Originally Posted by si1ly:

inevitable line movement. Definitely not unexpected as the fair value for this total is much higher than 45... 46.5....48...

I doubt it gets too much higher if anything, you might catch a better line if you wait. I still like it at that number, obviously the lower the better though.

Seriously man - no disrespect, but Sil1y works hard on his picks and analysis. His forums educate other handicappers so either take the time to read it then post intelligent questions or dont post at all. He clearly gave his pick many times and even his reasoning.