t's very interesting that BOTH of this Sunday's conference championship games in the NFL playoffs have played out the same way in terms of sharp betting.
- Green Bay and Pittsburgh are the favorites.
- Green Bay and Pittsburgh get meaningful support at -3, so much so that sportsbooks had to raise the juice to -120, or -130 at that number before finally settling in at -3.5.
- During the course of events right at the open, or later in the week, some stores posted a favorite by four points, but immediately saw the dog get hit fairly hard.
That makes it pretty clear. Sharps (professional wagerers) like the favorites -3 and the dogs +4!
Good night everyone, see you next time!
It's just not any more complicated than that at the moment. I will be interested to see if additional sharp action comes in on the underdogs over the weekend if the line stays at -3.5. Wise Guys who liked the favorite are already in at -3 or -3 with additional juice. They could read the tea leaves and made sure they got in at that critical number. My sense is that some dog lovers are waiting to see if the public backs the favorites up to four or more on game day. Then they'd come in at lines that offer a little more insurance than just 3.5.
Could the public back the dogs? Most of the time I'd say no. But, we have VERY appealing underdogs this week in terms of squares. Chicago is a team they could easily support at home in a Cinderella story. The Jets are a popular betting team most of the time, and just won outright two weeks in a row as underdogs. As a general rule, the public is going to bet favorites in championship games. That's just always the case in all sports going back since gambling started. This year, things could get interesting.
I haven't talked about the totals yet. There's nothing to talk about! Green Bay/Chicago opened at 43 and has stayed there. NY Jets/Pittsburgh opened at 38.5 and has stayed there. Both cities have the potential for weather influences. It makes sense to wait until the last second unless you know for sure bad weather is coming that would inspire an Under bet. That being said, all four teams have experience playing in cold weather. And, all three cold weather games went OVER last week! Games in Pittsburgh, Chicago, and New England landed on 55, 59, and 49 thanks to a lot of cheap field position points, and some strong armed quarterbacks who could throw through the win.
-Nick Bogdanovich
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