All Forums | NFL Betting Forum

Playoff Futures and hedging

...
Participants:
Search model icon
Views: 1715
Posts: 22
 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: Oct, 2005
Posts: 2730
Posted: #1
3-0 yesterday (not that it matters when it comes to futures) 

I enjoy putting in NFL futures prior to wildcard weekend because the value is usually there. Also, I like this strategy because, provided your teams progress past wildcard weekend, it offers an alternative hedge--especially with larger pointspreads. 

NFC Future to win NFC Championship : Saints $500 to win $1,625 ($1,125  profit)

As for the AFC, I have no play yet mainly because even though I find the Patriots to be highly suspect, so are the rest of the AFC teams and right now there is negative juice on the Pats to win AFC championship which I find slightly odd. 

Also keep in mind that I often bet against my own futures to try and middle a bit. For example, if the Saints beat the Lions and travel to SF. I expect the line to be Saints -4 or higher. I would probably then take a bit off of the table with 49ers +4 or whatever and have the chance to still cover with a Saints win. 
 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: Oct, 2005
Posts: 2730
Posted: #2
clarification on my last point..."would have a chance to still cover with a Saints win by 3.." (obviously)
 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: Dec, 2010
Posts: 1737
Posted: #3
Quote Originally Posted by spork:

3-0 yesterday (not that it matters when it comes to futures) 

I enjoy putting in NFL futures prior to wildcard weekend because the value is usually there. Also, I like this strategy because, provided your teams progress past wildcard weekend, it offers an alternative hedge--especially with larger pointspreads. 

NFC Future to win NFC Championship : Saints $500 to win $1,625 ($1,125  profit)

As for the AFC, I have no play yet mainly because even though I find the Patriots to be highly suspect, so are the rest of the AFC teams and right now there is negative juice on the Pats to win AFC championship which I find slightly odd. 

Also keep in mind that I often bet against my own futures to try and middle a bit. For example, if the Saints beat the Lions and travel to SF. I expect the line to be Saints -4 or higher. I would probably then take a bit off of the table with 49ers +4 or whatever and have the chance to still cover with a Saints win. 


+4..............
 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Sep, 2010
Posts: 65
Posted: #4
Gad! I wish I have the stones, and or the expendable income to put half a dime on futures. Best of luck to you. I got the Saints as a pick to win the super bowl... although for considerably less :-D
 
MVP
Participation Meter
Joined: May, 2003
Posts: 18451
Posted: #5
Lol +4
 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: Oct, 2005
Posts: 2730
Posted: #6
lol, fair enough boys...fair enough. the +4 is likely way off...but we'll see. 

I just feel as if Vegas sets lines based on who the public wants to back. People love betting the Saints.

But touche. I was still definitely way off. My bad. 

All that said, I don't really think my futures logic is off. 
 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Jul, 2011
Posts: 171
Posted: #7
Your logic is indeed correct but it's more down to if you back either of the 1 or 2 seeds. The Saints NFC odds wont come down enough even if they beat the Lions.

If you are looking at placing futures just for the fact that you can hedge/middle down the road then I can't see it being profitable tbh.

I backed the Pats last year at $1.90 and they got rolled in the divisional round by the Jets looking at middling.

Not sure you'll ever get a number 1 seed being a dog in the Championship game EVER
 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: Oct, 2005
Posts: 2730
Posted: #8
I hear ya but I was just talking about betting an individual game. Not betting some other future as a hedge against my existing one. 

Regardless, this is just an option at this point...it can easily become infeasible. Say for example, the Packers lose to the Falcons or Giants somehow, then the Saints would become home favorites (provided they beat the Lions and the 9ers) and I would be unable to do any sort of hedge.

Basically, at the end of the day, I do think the Saints have a strong chance to win the NFC, which is why I made the bet. If a nice situation presents itself to hedge or take a bit off, then I will...but I'm not married to the idea. 
 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: Dec, 2010
Posts: 1737
Posted: #9
Would you be shocked if the Saints were +3.....

That would have been the line in week 17
 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: Oct, 2005
Posts: 2730
Posted: #10
Quote Originally Posted by Niners13:

Would you be shocked if the Saints were +3.....

That would have been the line in week 17

Well, not to belabor this point. I've already conceded that my Saints -4 was stupid and way off. Not that it matters at this point, but I am a lifelong 49ers fan...and I have felt that even still no one sees them as a legit title contender. That probably influenced my initial comments. As to your point, no I would not be surprised if it were Saints +3...but I'd imagine it would endup as Saints +2 or even lower by kickoff. Like I said, the Saints need to first beat the Lions...


 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: Sep, 2009
Posts: 1534
Posted: #11

The best time to bet Super Bowl futures is during the offseason.

I have the Packers at 8 to 1.

 
MVP
Participation Meter
Joined: May, 2003
Posts: 18451
Posted: #12

hedging after the saints probably win over the lions is a bad play, you make nothing off that.. they are over 10 point favs so they are expected to win bigtime, so hedging is actually not a smart play, just bet less if u plan on hedging a bit..  there is no hedge value after that game..

 
MVP
Participation Meter
Joined: Oct, 2007
Posts: 17830
Posted: #13
Quote Originally Posted by Niners13:

Would you be shocked if the Saints were +3.....

That would have been the line in week 17


5dimes has the following...

Wild Card Winner at San Francisco 49ers - Divisional Playoffs
all plays have action regardless of which team plays 49ers
 109 New Orleans / NY Giants / Atlanta -3½ -115      
 110 San Francisco 49ers +3½ -115  

 
MVP
Participation Meter
Joined: Oct, 2007
Posts: 17830
Posted: #14
Obviously the line is higher with the Saints in the game than the Giants/Falcons winner. I think it should be pk, but his +4 MIGHT not be that far off....
 
MVP
Participation Meter
Joined: Oct, 2007
Posts: 17830
Posted: #15
Quote Originally Posted by GunShard:

The best time to bet Super Bowl futures is during the offseason.

I have the Packers at 8 to 1.



Lol.

Well this is solid logic. Dude, like any other bet is works both ways. Good job on Packer bet, but what about people who took the Colts during the off-season? They were one of the faves at the time. Obviously the Packers had a great season which gives your future a 400% increase in value. But it can obviously go the other direction as well.
 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: Oct, 2005
Posts: 2730
Posted: #16
Quote Originally Posted by rangerz2478:



5dimes has the following...

Wild Card Winner at San Francisco 49ers - Divisional Playoffs
all plays have action regardless of which team plays 49ers
 109 New Orleans / NY Giants / Atlanta -3½ -115      
 110 San Francisco 49ers +3½ -115  


Well that's interesting considering all the "lols" i got when I said SF +4....

Moneyshot, I think you have misunderstood what I originally wrote. I currently have a futures bet on Saints to win the NFC, right? Now, let's assume that what Wild Card Winner just quoted holds true (which again is still a big if, I'm aware of that). So let's just say it IS 49ers +3 or +3.5, which if you recall, is what my very first post in this thread was assuming. 

Assuming all of that then I could absolutely hedge by taking the 49ers with the points. And even have a chance to win or push on the 49ers while keeping the Saints bet alive. Or maybe I'll lose my Futures bet but win the 49ers bet. Do you see what I am saying now? 

Oh and "no shit" the offseason is the best time to bet futures. lol. Come on man... 
 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: Oct, 2005
Posts: 2730
Posted: #17
Oh and when I say "hedge," I don't mean match my entire initial futures bet...just mitigate a bit of risk by taking a bit off and hoping for a middle as well.  

 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: Oct, 2009
Posts: 2000
Posted: #18
take detroit ML this weekend as a hedge a huge ML and wont cost much to take a risk
 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: Oct, 2005
Posts: 2730
Posted: #19
Man, that's actually a nice idea. ML of 200 would pay 1,100 right now..interesting. I would win almost as much with the straight upset then I would with the Saints winning the NFC championship. 

But if that happens I'll feel like a dumbass for even betting the Saints future to begin with! haha.

And of course one problem is that I could (and likely will) lose 200 on the Det ML and then essentially I'm in for 700 on my futures bet ($500 initial + $200 Det ML). Then I'm kinda at the mercy for what the spread is next week at SF. I may end up in for $700 with no hedge or middling option and the Saints would then still have to win 2 consecutive games...

I do appreciate the suggestion. 
 
MVP
Participation Meter
Joined: May, 2003
Posts: 18451
Posted: #20
Quote Originally Posted by spork:


Well that's interesting considering all the "lols" i got when I said SF +4....

Moneyshot, I think you have misunderstood what I originally wrote. I currently have a futures bet on Saints to win the NFC, right? Now, let's assume that what Wild Card Winner just quoted holds true (which again is still a big if, I'm aware of that). So let's just say it IS 49ers +3 or +3.5, which if you recall, is what my very first post in this thread was assuming. 

Assuming all of that then I could absolutely hedge by taking the 49ers with the points. And even have a chance to win or push on the 49ers while keeping the Saints bet alive. Or maybe I'll lose my Futures bet but win the 49ers bet. Do you see what I am saying now? 

Oh and "no shit" the offseason is the best time to bet futures. lol. Come on man... 

i do get what u are saying but it is still incorrect... i dont have time to explain it to you and go through the math why hedging after winning the first round over the Lions (Saints are -600 favs) is not that smart...

But GL to you whatever you decide, im not being rude, im just trying to let u know that mathematically, you really arent doing yourself any favors hedging an already huge fav to win the nfc after just 1 game when they are a huge fav anyway.. You bet them right before the wildcard game so..

 

 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: Oct, 2005
Posts: 2730
Posted: #21
no worries bro. No offense taken. 

GL to you as well. It could all be moot anyway considering that all of this is contingent upon the Saints winning this weekend and the spread being favorable next week. So it might not even matter. 

peace! 
 
 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: Dec, 2010
Posts: 1737
Posted: #22
5dimes is down to -2.5 now......
All Forums | NFL Betting Forum
About Us
Contact Us
Careers
Our Team
Brand
Testimonials
Betting Guides
Sportsbook Reviews
Sports Betting News
Podcasts
Responsible Gaming
Betting Sites
Canada Betting Sites
Canada Casinos
Best Betting Apps
Contests
Streak Survivor
King of Covers
Office Pools
The Covers community has
810,221
lifetime members worldwide
Covers 30 Years Logo Established in 1995,
Covers is the world
leader in sports
betting information.
Site Map Help Privacy Terms of Service youtube logo facebook logo twitter logo instagram logo linkedin logo google news logo
Covers is verified safe by: Evalon Logo GPWA Logo GDPR Logo GeoTrust Logo Evalon Logo
Copyright © 1995 - 2026 CS Media Limited All Rights Reserved.

If you choose to make use of any information on this website including online sports betting services from any websites that may be featured on this website, we strongly recommend that you carefully check your local laws before doing so.It is your sole responsibility to understand your local laws and observe them strictly.Covers does not provide any advice or guidance as to the legality of online sports betting or other online gambling activities within your jurisdiction and you are responsible for complying with laws that are applicable to you in your relevant locality.Covers disclaims all liability associated with your use of this website and use of any information contained on it.As a condition of using this website, you agree to hold the owner of this website harmless from any claims arising from your use of any services on any third party website that may be featured by Covers.