Quote Originally Posted by KwameKilpatrick:
1) throw away the regular season, look back at the most recent super bowls. im not saying the favorite will not cover, just that the playoffs change the entire dynamic of a team.
2) bet with your head, not your heart, case in point, if you are from pitt/zona, TRY to pretend you are from kansas city.
3) do not overanalyze it, there are millions of factors in the super bowl. especially this year. coaching familiarities, experience, age, will, talent, weather/field surface, injuries etc... try and focus on these factors, and not betting on pitt because you heard anquan boldin is unsatisfied he cant get enough tickets and wants out of ARIZ(this is not INSIDE INFO).
let's now look at all of the pro's/con's to both sides...
Offense - ARIZONA(8/2) the way they are running the football, which may be difficult against pitt, is essential. pittsburgh has seen this, and that will force them to run blitz and/or have "curly haired woman" near the box. even if they are not succesful yardage wise, if they continue to carry the ball a good number of times, it will protect warner, and allow him to eat up the blitz like he always does. this does not bode well for ike taylor or deshea townsend/bryant mcfadden. good luck DB's of pitt.
Defense - PITTSBURGH(7/3) listen, arizona's defense has been playing absolutely outstanding of late, and have actually been much more impressive during the postseason, holding the panthers to 13 points on the road, and shutting the eagles down in the first half, and on the last possesion of the game when it counted. their defense has not been perfect, but has made the plays when needed to in critical situations(3rd down/4th down, 4th quarter). that being said, pittsburgh's defense is just plain better. They have everything, except corner's. taylor is good, townsend is not so much. this is a bad matchup for the steelers. pitt = best defense in this game.
Special Teams - ARIZONA(6/4) neil rackers is a flat out better kicker than jeff reed. zona's punt and kick coverage are better than pitt. however both of these teams are good on special teams, i just see arizona's as a bit better.
Coaching - ARIZONA (6/4) as a football fan, it doesn't get any better than this. tomlin v. whisenhunt. the guy who got snubbed out of the others job, vs. the guy who doesnt give a shit and wants to prove he's better. todd haley v. dick lebeau. this is the best coordinator v. coordinator matchup that i think i have seen in my lifetime in the super bowl. however, i think lebeau's blitz gets eaten alive by haley's quick hitting passing and running attack. pendergrast v. aryans. this also is key. aryans is no joke as o-coordinator, but he better get his o-line ready, they are weak. pendergrast's cardinal's defense are making the biggest plays when needed. whoever wins the battle between dick lebeau and todd haley will win this super bowl, i guaruntee you that...
Experience - PITTSBURGH (7/3) this advantage for pittsburgh isn't as heavy as you would think. mike tomlin, wasnt there. the entire offensive staff(minus bruce aryans) is now residing in arizona. however, 20+ players for pittsburgh have played in a super bowl compared to the 4 or 5 from arizona(most actually were on pitt's 05 sb winner). this edge still favors pittsburgh, but not as much as you would think.
Injuries - ARIZONA(9/1) this one's clear. the starting LT and RG for pitt have been on IR for several months now. and it's been showing. hines ward will play, but his cutting ability that has always given him the quickness to get open, will not be. every time the pittsburgh steelers have thrown to hines ward on 3rd down, he has converted, EVERY TIME. no drops, no short ran routes, no nothing. 100%. if he's not 100%, this will truly hinder pitt's chances of victory, much less a cover.
Weather/Field Surface - ARIZONA(7/3) yeah. the cardinals are definately a better team in good weather. they can run and cut way better in good weather. look @ the worst games they have played this season... @ n.e. (snow storm after clinching NFC WEST, 47-7 NE, @NYJ pouring rain). pitt's defense is best suited in bad weather, it definately gives their DB's an advantage, as neither of the corner's or safeties are particularly good at pass coverage with exception to ike taylor. the DB's of pitt might get exposed in this matchup. exactly like they did last year @ arizona. hmm....
strictly on the field, i like arizona right now. however, we all know in this game, there are WAY more factors than just footbal players and coaches. it may look like it, but i am in no way biased towards arizona. matter of fact, ive been a pittsburgh steelers fan my entire life. in 3rd grade(this should show my age), i lost $300 on the steelers against the cowboys(1995/1996). obviously, i wasnt receiving points or anything just straight betting $20 with all my friends/classmates. so trust me, these analysis i just did is not because i am a card's fan or anything like that. i am just trying to get an edge on this game, and in my capping, i've found arizona +7 is wrong. i have also noticed that +210-240 on the moneyline is a little low for a +7 moneyline dog bet. is this fishy only to me, or has anyone else noticed that. dont you get 2-1 on your money for a 3.5/4 point moneyline dog bet? hmmm... the only way vegas would make this number real low, ESPECIALLY WITH EVERYONE ON ARIZONA, is if they had a strong feeling arizona could win this one. just smells like arizona +7, arizona ML, and over 46.5 are all solid bets....
good luck all....
They are a solid Dog: great QB with a lot of weapons - never out of the game. Defense is solid (not great) and makes stops when needs to and causes TO's.
+7 is way to go.
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