I think this may be one of the best games on the board. The Pats will put up points and I can't see the Seattle offense keeping up with them by the 2nd Half. Their D will only be able to handle so much of Brady. Just to play it safe, I think the ML has great value at -170.
Is there any reason not to unload on the Pats this afternoon?
Any input would be appreciated.
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To remove first post, remove entire topic.
I think this may be one of the best games on the board. The Pats will put up points and I can't see the Seattle offense keeping up with them by the 2nd Half. Their D will only be able to handle so much of Brady. Just to play it safe, I think the ML has great value at -170.
Is there any reason not to unload on the Pats this afternoon?
everyone is looking at the last two games and thinking the patriots are a great running team now , it really had more to do with the defenses they were playing buffalo and denver are horrible
buffalo in the game with san fran gave up over 300 yds rushing and 300 yds passing that's the first time in NFL history this has ever been done ..
remember how the pats looked against arizona at home , well that's the only real defense they have faced this year
. look for t the running game and bradys little dinks and dunks not to be effective today .
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everyone is looking at the last two games and thinking the patriots are a great running team now , it really had more to do with the defenses they were playing buffalo and denver are horrible
buffalo in the game with san fran gave up over 300 yds rushing and 300 yds passing that's the first time in NFL history this has ever been done ..
remember how the pats looked against arizona at home , well that's the only real defense they have faced this year
. look for t the running game and bradys little dinks and dunks not to be effective today .
New England is 3-2 straight up and 4-1 ATS with their two losses being
by 2 points and 1 point to 4-1 teams Arizona and Baltimore. That record
and their +10.4 points average scoring margin hide the fact that the
Patriots really aren’t all that great. New England has averaged 440
yards at 5.7 yards per play on offense (against teams that would allow
5.6 yppl to an average team) and they’ve allowed 375 yards at 5.9 yppl
(to teams that would combine to average 5.7 yppl against an average
defense). So, the Patriots actually allow more yards per play than they
gain while being 0.1 yppl worse than average overall after adjusting for
schedule. New England does run nearly 14 more plays per game than their
opponents, which is why they have more total yards but even a 65 yards
edge in total yards isn’t that impressive. What has made the Patriots
appear to be just as good as always is their +10 turnover margin, which
has been worth about 7 points per game. New England is expected to be
positive in turnover margin because Tom Brady doesn’t tend to throw a
lot of interceptions (although he is expected to throw more than the 0.2
interceptions per game that he’s averaging so far this season), but a
defense that is worse than average overall isn’t going to continue to
force 2.8 turnovers per game.
Now that we’ve established that the Patriots are overrated we need to
figure out if the Seahawks are good enough to compete in this game.
Seattle is a work in progress offensively, averaging just 4.7 yppl
against teams that would allow 5.3 yppl to an average team, but the
Seahawks are very good defensively – allowing just 259 yards at 4.5 yppl
to teams that would combine to average 5.4 yppl against an average
team.
Seattle is actually a better team from a yards per play perspective and
my math model projects the Seahawks with an edge of 6 total yards in
this game even with New England expected to run 7 more plays. The
Patriots are expected to have an advantage in turnovers of 0.5, which is
a far cry from the +2.0 turnovers they’ve been averaging. If the
Patriots are +2 in turnovers then they’ll most likely cover but that is
highly unlikely and my math model favors New England by 1 ½ points. The
math actually picked this game even but New England has consistently
outplayed their statistical projections every season by at least 1.0
points (except in 2008 when Brady missed the season with an injury).
Belichick’s team has out-played their statistics by an average of 1.5
points per game over the years, so I have learned to just add that to my
math model projections. Even with that adjustment there is still line
value in favor of Seattle and the Seahawks apply to a very good 111-47-3
ATS home underdog situation while the Patriots apply to a negative
83-168-2 ATS road favorite letdown situation. As was the case last week,
I do have respect for Tom Brady’s 92-45-4 ATS mark as a starting
quarterback when not favored by 9 points or more, but he’s at his best
in division games, or off a loss, or at home. Brady is a more modest
21-19 ATS in non-division road games after a win. I’ll still resist the
temptation to make this game a Best Bet but I’ll consider Seattle a Strong Opinion at +3 ½ points or more.
0
New England is 3-2 straight up and 4-1 ATS with their two losses being
by 2 points and 1 point to 4-1 teams Arizona and Baltimore. That record
and their +10.4 points average scoring margin hide the fact that the
Patriots really aren’t all that great. New England has averaged 440
yards at 5.7 yards per play on offense (against teams that would allow
5.6 yppl to an average team) and they’ve allowed 375 yards at 5.9 yppl
(to teams that would combine to average 5.7 yppl against an average
defense). So, the Patriots actually allow more yards per play than they
gain while being 0.1 yppl worse than average overall after adjusting for
schedule. New England does run nearly 14 more plays per game than their
opponents, which is why they have more total yards but even a 65 yards
edge in total yards isn’t that impressive. What has made the Patriots
appear to be just as good as always is their +10 turnover margin, which
has been worth about 7 points per game. New England is expected to be
positive in turnover margin because Tom Brady doesn’t tend to throw a
lot of interceptions (although he is expected to throw more than the 0.2
interceptions per game that he’s averaging so far this season), but a
defense that is worse than average overall isn’t going to continue to
force 2.8 turnovers per game.
Now that we’ve established that the Patriots are overrated we need to
figure out if the Seahawks are good enough to compete in this game.
Seattle is a work in progress offensively, averaging just 4.7 yppl
against teams that would allow 5.3 yppl to an average team, but the
Seahawks are very good defensively – allowing just 259 yards at 4.5 yppl
to teams that would combine to average 5.4 yppl against an average
team.
Seattle is actually a better team from a yards per play perspective and
my math model projects the Seahawks with an edge of 6 total yards in
this game even with New England expected to run 7 more plays. The
Patriots are expected to have an advantage in turnovers of 0.5, which is
a far cry from the +2.0 turnovers they’ve been averaging. If the
Patriots are +2 in turnovers then they’ll most likely cover but that is
highly unlikely and my math model favors New England by 1 ½ points. The
math actually picked this game even but New England has consistently
outplayed their statistical projections every season by at least 1.0
points (except in 2008 when Brady missed the season with an injury).
Belichick’s team has out-played their statistics by an average of 1.5
points per game over the years, so I have learned to just add that to my
math model projections. Even with that adjustment there is still line
value in favor of Seattle and the Seahawks apply to a very good 111-47-3
ATS home underdog situation while the Patriots apply to a negative
83-168-2 ATS road favorite letdown situation. As was the case last week,
I do have respect for Tom Brady’s 92-45-4 ATS mark as a starting
quarterback when not favored by 9 points or more, but he’s at his best
in division games, or off a loss, or at home. Brady is a more modest
21-19 ATS in non-division road games after a win. I’ll still resist the
temptation to make this game a Best Bet but I’ll consider Seattle a Strong Opinion at +3 ½ points or more.
stuart, that was the best writeup I have read on covers all week. Thanks for the work and info. Do you have your own picks for today aside from seatle play? I see you havnt posted much lately, it would be truely appreciated from a capper of your skill level and knowledge for your weekly insights.
0
stuart, that was the best writeup I have read on covers all week. Thanks for the work and info. Do you have your own picks for today aside from seatle play? I see you havnt posted much lately, it would be truely appreciated from a capper of your skill level and knowledge for your weekly insights.
New England is 3-2 straight up and 4-1 ATS with their two losses being
by 2 points and 1 point to 4-1 teams Arizona and Baltimore. That record
and their +10.4 points average scoring margin hide the fact that the
Patriots really aren’t all that great. New England has averaged 440
yards at 5.7 yards per play on offense (against teams that would allow
5.6 yppl to an average team) and they’ve allowed 375 yards at 5.9 yppl
(to teams that would combine to average 5.7 yppl against an average
defense). So, the Patriots actually allow more yards per play than they
gain while being 0.1 yppl worse than average overall after adjusting for
schedule. New England does run nearly 14 more plays per game than their
opponents, which is why they have more total yards but even a 65 yards
edge in total yards isn’t that impressive. What has made the Patriots
appear to be just as good as always is their +10 turnover margin, which
has been worth about 7 points per game. New England is expected to be
positive in turnover margin because Tom Brady doesn’t tend to throw a
lot of interceptions (although he is expected to throw more than the 0.2
interceptions per game that he’s averaging so far this season), but a
defense that is worse than average overall isn’t going to continue to
force 2.8 turnovers per game.
Now that we’ve established that the Patriots are overrated we need to
figure out if the Seahawks are good enough to compete in this game.
Seattle is a work in progress offensively, averaging just 4.7 yppl
against teams that would allow 5.3 yppl to an average team, but the
Seahawks are very good defensively – allowing just 259 yards at 4.5 yppl
to teams that would combine to average 5.4 yppl against an average
team.
Seattle is actually a better team from a yards per play perspective and
my math model projects the Seahawks with an edge of 6 total yards in
this game even with New England expected to run 7 more plays. The
Patriots are expected to have an advantage in turnovers of 0.5, which is
a far cry from the +2.0 turnovers they’ve been averaging. If the
Patriots are +2 in turnovers then they’ll most likely cover but that is
highly unlikely and my math model favors New England by 1 ½ points. The
math actually picked this game even but New England has consistently
outplayed their statistical projections every season by at least 1.0
points (except in 2008 when Brady missed the season with an injury).
Belichick’s team has out-played their statistics by an average of 1.5
points per game over the years, so I have learned to just add that to my
math model projections. Even with that adjustment there is still line
value in favor of Seattle and the Seahawks apply to a very good 111-47-3
ATS home underdog situation while the Patriots apply to a negative
83-168-2 ATS road favorite letdown situation. As was the case last week,
I do have respect for Tom Brady’s 92-45-4 ATS mark as a starting
quarterback when not favored by 9 points or more, but he’s at his best
in division games, or off a loss, or at home. Brady is a more modest
21-19 ATS in non-division road games after a win. I’ll still resist the
temptation to make this game a Best Bet but I’ll consider Seattle a Strong Opinion at +3 ½ points or more.
Nice
0
Quote Originally Posted by stuartFL:
New England is 3-2 straight up and 4-1 ATS with their two losses being
by 2 points and 1 point to 4-1 teams Arizona and Baltimore. That record
and their +10.4 points average scoring margin hide the fact that the
Patriots really aren’t all that great. New England has averaged 440
yards at 5.7 yards per play on offense (against teams that would allow
5.6 yppl to an average team) and they’ve allowed 375 yards at 5.9 yppl
(to teams that would combine to average 5.7 yppl against an average
defense). So, the Patriots actually allow more yards per play than they
gain while being 0.1 yppl worse than average overall after adjusting for
schedule. New England does run nearly 14 more plays per game than their
opponents, which is why they have more total yards but even a 65 yards
edge in total yards isn’t that impressive. What has made the Patriots
appear to be just as good as always is their +10 turnover margin, which
has been worth about 7 points per game. New England is expected to be
positive in turnover margin because Tom Brady doesn’t tend to throw a
lot of interceptions (although he is expected to throw more than the 0.2
interceptions per game that he’s averaging so far this season), but a
defense that is worse than average overall isn’t going to continue to
force 2.8 turnovers per game.
Now that we’ve established that the Patriots are overrated we need to
figure out if the Seahawks are good enough to compete in this game.
Seattle is a work in progress offensively, averaging just 4.7 yppl
against teams that would allow 5.3 yppl to an average team, but the
Seahawks are very good defensively – allowing just 259 yards at 4.5 yppl
to teams that would combine to average 5.4 yppl against an average
team.
Seattle is actually a better team from a yards per play perspective and
my math model projects the Seahawks with an edge of 6 total yards in
this game even with New England expected to run 7 more plays. The
Patriots are expected to have an advantage in turnovers of 0.5, which is
a far cry from the +2.0 turnovers they’ve been averaging. If the
Patriots are +2 in turnovers then they’ll most likely cover but that is
highly unlikely and my math model favors New England by 1 ½ points. The
math actually picked this game even but New England has consistently
outplayed their statistical projections every season by at least 1.0
points (except in 2008 when Brady missed the season with an injury).
Belichick’s team has out-played their statistics by an average of 1.5
points per game over the years, so I have learned to just add that to my
math model projections. Even with that adjustment there is still line
value in favor of Seattle and the Seahawks apply to a very good 111-47-3
ATS home underdog situation while the Patriots apply to a negative
83-168-2 ATS road favorite letdown situation. As was the case last week,
I do have respect for Tom Brady’s 92-45-4 ATS mark as a starting
quarterback when not favored by 9 points or more, but he’s at his best
in division games, or off a loss, or at home. Brady is a more modest
21-19 ATS in non-division road games after a win. I’ll still resist the
temptation to make this game a Best Bet but I’ll consider Seattle a Strong Opinion at +3 ½ points or more.
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