Patriots to miss playoffs

Do any Vegas locals have this prop bet available to bet on? What are the odds and how much is the max wager?

Would love to hear your analysis. I'm liking the Pats this year. I don't think they'll be Bradyesque, but with the #1 defense and #1 coaching staff, they might not need elite play at quarterback.

My book has patriots not making the playoffs +145

The Patriots have lost four defensive starters including Shelton, Van Noy, and Jamie Collins. What makes you think they'll once again be the #1 defense in the game? Is the coaching staff elite enough to overcome key losses on both sides of the ball? Feel like this is team will win 6 or 7 games this year and absolutely miss the playoffs. Even if they are able to hold teams down on defense will Stidham or Hoyer really lead this team to a playoff berth?

Thanks! Yes, my numbers project them to have a top-5 defense.

Now if Hoyer starts, things could be shaky. But I doubt he will. 

In current-time America, don't bet against a team wearing red, white and blue, and calling themselves The Patriots!

Good luck with your bet. I'm only taking a couple of future plays: Jags over 4.5, Frisco under 10.5. I think Buffalo will go under too, although I'm going to wait just a little longer, because their win total could go up by august/september. That AFC East could see a 9-7 or an 8-8 team win the division.

Every year the pats lose defensive starters to free agency only to see the players regress on new teams and magically the patriots find solid replacements and continue to win over the last 20 years.  That is superior coaching and scouting and a system that is second to none.  The system made those guys stars.  On offense they have improved their o'line and have improved their backfield.  Stidham is a wildcard no one knows much, but the fact that they believe in him says a lot.  Belicheck will put him in the best position he can to win.  He has mastered his system and has an edge virtually every week in gameplanning. 

Remember when the dynasty started brady was a game manager the first few years, they had a great defense and running game.  Expect a similar strategy this year.  He will play to stidhams strengths, (whatever they are) like he did with brady.

I have wrongly predicted the end of the patriots in the past.  They will not miss a beat this year.  Missing the playoffs is a stretch considering there are now 7 teams qualifying this year.

Once upon a time I played a sport at an elite level.....a couple of coaches were 75% of my success as they played to my strengths and believed in me.  Brady would have been a bit above average as a pro quarterback had he not played on the Patriots.

In my other thread, I have over/under history going back 8 years...the Patriots have exceeded their total wins every year except once when they tied it, if I remember correctly.  

The coaches make the players....Bart Starr is another player who comes to mind, who probably never starts a game unless Vince L. shows faith in him and coaches him up, and Lombardi turned him into a champion.

I would not bet against the  Belichicks and the Vince Lombardis of sports....they are going to have to prove to me first that they can't cut the mustard this year.  I'd be more likely to bet on most of their games to go under the total then bet against them.

I do understand people think Pats will miss playoffs. But as Indigo999 pointed out; they have to prove first they can't handle it (in recent years they've overcome problems like this time after time). And second; 7 teams qualify instead of 6 and that can make the difference. And I also wonder if Pats will make a move on Kaepernick ;)

Why you suspect the line will go up by that time? What will cause that change?

The AFC east teams are all going to have a tough schedule as for starters, they must all play KC and SF, those teams sound familiar? The Patriots have the most difficult schedule of the division IMO. Add in @ SEA, @ Rams, @ HOU, and the Ravens come to town. The other 3 teams in the division have all improved, again, IMO. The Jets will be dangerous and the Bills are a legit playoff contender once again. The only team they could sweep is MIA, and as we saw last year in the final game, a near must win for NE, @ home no less, they couldn't even do that. And for those of you who honestly think they will be better WITHOUT Brady, I want sum of the stuff you've been smoking, must be sum of that Ganja, as Richard Pryor once said, "from the motherland." If the Patriots can win 8-9 games, that will be a job well done but it won't be enough to win the division, that is BUFFALOS'  to lose. I think .500 at best for the Brady-less Belichick boyz.'

Up to now, all the money that has come in on season win totals has come from either pros or diehards (the kind of people that visit and post on this site in June). The average sports bettor doesn't even think about placing a bet involving the NFL until August. Between now and then, most - if not all - of the preview magazines are going to pick Buffalo to win the division. They'll probably be joined by Sports Illustrated, Pro Football Weekly, and all the talking heads on television. By then, the average sports bettor will follow the lead and bet Buffalo over their win total. It will be unanimous, with pros, diehards and public bettors all on Buffalo's bandwagon. That's why I think the line, which opened at 8.5 and is currently 9, might rise a tad.

Good analysis Doctor.

Great insight from everyone. This bet most likely goes up in smoke if the Bills don't win the division. All AFC East teams play tough schedules but I'm banking on the Bills to rise up and win the AFC East for the first time since 95. The Bills are loaded on both sides of the ball and if Josh Allen continues to progress this bet is money in the bank.

Does adding Cam Newton change the AFC East outlook ?

Yes, if cam is 100% healthy Pats can be scary. Big if tho. and decent defenses staring him down in the division. Sean mcdermot former panther coordinator saw cam every day in practices. Public money sees big name qb and coach and will put money on them. Still an incomplete roster with no weapons however

Season could look different if Cam can make starts. 

Even a healthy Cam doesn't get this team to the SB. I think Cam is a decent QB, but certainly not elite. And this NE-roster is far from complete.

I love the BILLS even more ...

Thought CAM should have retired , now he gets to face McDermott  twice ...

Good luck playing with that below average roster ...

I'd bet Bill and crying Cam have many issues 

Anyone who has actually watched Cam and thinks he will be 100 percent of what he once was is truly kidding themselves. I like Cam but his injuries and battering at the hands of defenses has done him in. He was never a very good passer, last year he couldn't out throw sum high school kids. His running days are clearly behind him and that was the strength of his game. Now, if the Patriots had a big time offense, he could manage them I think. But they don't. While their defense will be solid again, their offense has much to be desired, with or without him. Expect alot of "unders" from NE this year, that's your best chance of making money on the Pats this season.

Listen, the Pats did what the Pats do. They are bargain shoppers from the discount bin. They got this guy for dirt cheap. Of course there are health issues and such. But let's not forget that Cam was highly touted out of highschool. He won the Heisman and a championship with Auburn. He was a #1 draft pick. He was the NFL's MVP in 2015 and made a SB appearance with the Panthers.

If it don't work out, it don't work out. The Pats lose nothing.

True. The Pats did a great job with this move. Low risk and possible high rewards. But that wasn't exactly the question. Does Cam most likely change the AFC East? Not in my opinion.

That's a fair opinion.

Bills win div. even if Brady stayed,and if he thought they could contend for another SB he'd still be there.

How are we so sure Cam even starts? He's a nice insurance policy in case Stidham can't play and is being paid like it. Not sure Cam changes much of anything given his shaky health and a lack of weapons on offense.