Bodio, another fantastic analysis but I respectfully disagree.
I'm going to digest your excellent researched writeup and respond back in a couple days.
This is GOING to be the MOST WATCHED SB in NFL history and might be the last NFL game for quite some time.......I'm sure the NFL gods won't be cheering for a defensive doozy
It sure seems you are extremely heavy with PITT slant in your writeup as I feel Pack "better team" right now. Gotta get my case together for the over
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Bodio, another fantastic analysis but I respectfully disagree.
I'm going to digest your excellent researched writeup and respond back in a couple days.
This is GOING to be the MOST WATCHED SB in NFL history and might be the last NFL game for quite some time.......I'm sure the NFL gods won't be cheering for a defensive doozy
It sure seems you are extremely heavy with PITT slant in your writeup as I feel Pack "better team" right now. Gotta get my case together for the over
Your write-up is too LEGIT! Respect to you! What's your take comparing this year's Superbowl prediction and last year's? Saints were underdogs and the public wanted them to win, now Steelers are the underdogs but the public is on the Packers. Colts were -5 last year, does this have any factor in this year's game? I'm just worried about the "Vegas" calls, all games are fixed by them. Also, Total points, both teams has great defenses, but it's Superbowl, most of the games went Over in the past. If you don't mind, could you give me your email address or phone number so we can discuss further details?
Sometimes public likes the 'new flavor of the month'. Packers are a little more exciting than the Steelers right now, and the public wants to see excitement. Public ignores the fact that GB has been involved in plenty of 'ugly' games as well and are very successful winning those also. The public was actually on the Colts last year by an overwhelming majority. (don't remember the #'s but had to be close to 65/35 split).
If you think 'Vegas' fixes games, then there really is no point in gambling, unless you know what they know. Vegas just sets the line to get even action as much as possible.
As to your statement that most Superbowl games go Over. Well the UNDER has hit in 5 of the last 6 SuperBowls.
You can contact me at VegasButcher (gmail) or PM me here...
Good luck buddy
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Quote Originally Posted by sportscenterhd:
Your write-up is too LEGIT! Respect to you! What's your take comparing this year's Superbowl prediction and last year's? Saints were underdogs and the public wanted them to win, now Steelers are the underdogs but the public is on the Packers. Colts were -5 last year, does this have any factor in this year's game? I'm just worried about the "Vegas" calls, all games are fixed by them. Also, Total points, both teams has great defenses, but it's Superbowl, most of the games went Over in the past. If you don't mind, could you give me your email address or phone number so we can discuss further details?
Sometimes public likes the 'new flavor of the month'. Packers are a little more exciting than the Steelers right now, and the public wants to see excitement. Public ignores the fact that GB has been involved in plenty of 'ugly' games as well and are very successful winning those also. The public was actually on the Colts last year by an overwhelming majority. (don't remember the #'s but had to be close to 65/35 split).
If you think 'Vegas' fixes games, then there really is no point in gambling, unless you know what they know. Vegas just sets the line to get even action as much as possible.
As to your statement that most Superbowl games go Over. Well the UNDER has hit in 5 of the last 6 SuperBowls.
You can contact me at VegasButcher (gmail) or PM me here...
Well I dont have the time to make an analysis like that but im thinking over based on fact green bay will not be able to run the ball period. Which results in a lot of clock stoppages or longer gains. Yes pitt will definitley try to slow the game up and run but that will result in either play action and some long bombs and some big plays or green bay will stuff them and it will mean more passing for pitt which I think their gonna do a lot of anyway. No I dont have the numbers only a gut feeling of what is gonna happen in this game. I do believe my play is pitt/over tease and pitt/under tease in hopes to hit the middle or pay the juice. Risky yes but I do believe its a good play. And pitt straight of course!
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Well I dont have the time to make an analysis like that but im thinking over based on fact green bay will not be able to run the ball period. Which results in a lot of clock stoppages or longer gains. Yes pitt will definitley try to slow the game up and run but that will result in either play action and some long bombs and some big plays or green bay will stuff them and it will mean more passing for pitt which I think their gonna do a lot of anyway. No I dont have the numbers only a gut feeling of what is gonna happen in this game. I do believe my play is pitt/over tease and pitt/under tease in hopes to hit the middle or pay the juice. Risky yes but I do believe its a good play. And pitt straight of course!
Bodio, another fantastic analysis but I respectfully disagree.
I'm going to digest your excellent researched writeup and respond back in a couple days.
This is GOING to be the MOST WATCHED SB in NFL history and might be the last NFL game for quite some time.......I'm sure the NFL gods won't be cheering for a defensive doozy
It sure seems you are extremely heavy with PITT slant in your writeup as I feel Pack "better team" right now. Gotta get my case together for the over
Would love to hear it brutha. Haven't been able to find any good analysis backing the OVER, so very interested to hear your thoughts. (As long as they're not revolving around NFL gods wanting a high scoring game )
I agree with you on that Packers are a slightly better team right now. But both squads are really close. I did suggest that PIT ML has the most 'value' but that's because you're not laying any juice, and I could easily see each of these teams having a 50% win-rate against each other. To me, the side is a total 'coin-flip' (matter of fact I have NOT see one good argument/analysis backing either side)...
In any case, would love to hear your thoughts on both the OVER and why Packers are the bet in this one...
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Quote Originally Posted by Crusher13:
Bodio, another fantastic analysis but I respectfully disagree.
I'm going to digest your excellent researched writeup and respond back in a couple days.
This is GOING to be the MOST WATCHED SB in NFL history and might be the last NFL game for quite some time.......I'm sure the NFL gods won't be cheering for a defensive doozy
It sure seems you are extremely heavy with PITT slant in your writeup as I feel Pack "better team" right now. Gotta get my case together for the over
Would love to hear it brutha. Haven't been able to find any good analysis backing the OVER, so very interested to hear your thoughts. (As long as they're not revolving around NFL gods wanting a high scoring game )
I agree with you on that Packers are a slightly better team right now. But both squads are really close. I did suggest that PIT ML has the most 'value' but that's because you're not laying any juice, and I could easily see each of these teams having a 50% win-rate against each other. To me, the side is a total 'coin-flip' (matter of fact I have NOT see one good argument/analysis backing either side)...
In any case, would love to hear your thoughts on both the OVER and why Packers are the bet in this one...
Well I dont have the time to make an analysis like that but im thinking over based on fact green bay will not be able to run the ball period. Which results in a lot of clock stoppages or longer gains. Yes pitt will definitley try to slow the game up and run but that will result in either play action and some long bombs and some big plays or green bay will stuff them and it will mean more passing for pitt which I think their gonna do a lot of anyway. No I dont have the numbers only a gut feeling of what is gonna happen in this game. I do believe my play is pitt/over tease and pitt/under tease in hopes to hit the middle or pay the juice. Risky yes but I do believe its a good play. And pitt straight of course!
Both defenses are built to prevent long plays so I don't see that happening. I feel that both teams will need to sustain long scoring drives in this one if they want to put points on the board.
Good luck brutha!
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Quote Originally Posted by mrquija27:
Well I dont have the time to make an analysis like that but im thinking over based on fact green bay will not be able to run the ball period. Which results in a lot of clock stoppages or longer gains. Yes pitt will definitley try to slow the game up and run but that will result in either play action and some long bombs and some big plays or green bay will stuff them and it will mean more passing for pitt which I think their gonna do a lot of anyway. No I dont have the numbers only a gut feeling of what is gonna happen in this game. I do believe my play is pitt/over tease and pitt/under tease in hopes to hit the middle or pay the juice. Risky yes but I do believe its a good play. And pitt straight of course!
Both defenses are built to prevent long plays so I don't see that happening. I feel that both teams will need to sustain long scoring drives in this one if they want to put points on the board.
I understand that and agree but just saying I dont think either team ecpecially the pack is gonna have a choice in matter. They are gonna HAVE to throw and throw a lot. Big plays or not it will result in more gametime with clock stoppages OR some big plays.
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I understand that and agree but just saying I dont think either team ecpecially the pack is gonna have a choice in matter. They are gonna HAVE to throw and throw a lot. Big plays or not it will result in more gametime with clock stoppages OR some big plays.
Bodio, I totally agree with you when you say how people loved the colts to win it all last year and then what happened.
I still like the under and your analysis just helps me grow stronger on this pick.
I am still going playing safe though with a Pitt +8.5 and Under 50.5 teaser, the only thing that scares me though is if from no where the special teams squeeze an extra TD then my spread pick might be jeopardized.. like the Ravens game against Steelers in the post season..
Any predictions on the final score?
An investment in knowledge pays the best interest. –Benjamin Franklin
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Bodio, I totally agree with you when you say how people loved the colts to win it all last year and then what happened.
I still like the under and your analysis just helps me grow stronger on this pick.
I am still going playing safe though with a Pitt +8.5 and Under 50.5 teaser, the only thing that scares me though is if from no where the special teams squeeze an extra TD then my spread pick might be jeopardized.. like the Ravens game against Steelers in the post season..
Bodio, I totally agree with you when you say how people loved the colts to win it all last year and then what happened.
I still like the under and your analysis just helps me grow stronger on this pick.
I am still going playing safe though with a Pitt +8.5 and Under 50.5 teaser, the only thing that scares me though is if from no where the special teams squeeze an extra TD then my spread pick might be jeopardized.. like the Ravens game against Steelers in the post season..
Any predictions on the final score?
20-19 Steelers
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Quote Originally Posted by amanverma:
Bodio, I totally agree with you when you say how people loved the colts to win it all last year and then what happened.
I still like the under and your analysis just helps me grow stronger on this pick.
I am still going playing safe though with a Pitt +8.5 and Under 50.5 teaser, the only thing that scares me though is if from no where the special teams squeeze an extra TD then my spread pick might be jeopardized.. like the Ravens game against Steelers in the post season..
Exceptional! I was heavy on PIT but I also played your teaser. TY. I rewatched the GB game and indeed with a healthy Cutler CHI there existed a strong possibility of winning the game. Drive after drive a back up QB drove on GB to eventually to throw INTs while the GB offense was completely shut down. Both PIT and GB offenses lost momentum in the 2nd half and now a two week lay off while two excellent defenses get 2 weeks to prepare.
What are your feelings on another teaser PIT and the under?
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Exceptional! I was heavy on PIT but I also played your teaser. TY. I rewatched the GB game and indeed with a healthy Cutler CHI there existed a strong possibility of winning the game. Drive after drive a back up QB drove on GB to eventually to throw INTs while the GB offense was completely shut down. Both PIT and GB offenses lost momentum in the 2nd half and now a two week lay off while two excellent defenses get 2 weeks to prepare.
What are your feelings on another teaser PIT and the under?
Just make a list of factors that you feel favor the OVER and compare with the list of factors that favor the UNDER. Compare the two lists and I'm sure that will help with your decision... Don't assume that just because both offenses have the potential to put up points that they necessarily will. These defenses are #1 and #2 in the NFL in preventing teams from putting points on the board. There's a reason why they've been so good and so consistent throughout the season
Good luck bud
Thanks man you as well!!
I like the over for a few reasons, none really statistical or anything.
I find that most super bowls go over unless they set the line way to high like last year.. But here we have the Defense taking center stage which would say UNDER to the general public,, so I think it will go over this time.. I dont care too much if the line went down a half point, last year the line went up if I recall.
I feel like the NFL wants a ton of scoring and you are less likely to see a 56 yard TD bomb come back for holding.. they want points in this World Wide TV event.. They will let things go for the sake of ratings and action..You know what I mean?
2nd, these 2 QB's are really really good at avoiding pressure and making plays... Both have speedy WR's and can go down the field in a heartbeat and its on turf without wind and snow mud so if the QB's get loose, and from what i have seen - they will. Lots of passes in this game. Also they do not know each other like the bears and pack did.. 2 of the 3 Pack playoff games went over the #.
I think Rodgers will have a much better game than he had vs Chicago.. Steelers are unlikely to get blanked in 2nd H and amazingly (Thanks to the DEFENSE ) that game went over last week even though one team had 0 points in the 2nd H.
GL buddy
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Quote Originally Posted by bodio:
hehe...yeah I know what you mean.
Just make a list of factors that you feel favor the OVER and compare with the list of factors that favor the UNDER. Compare the two lists and I'm sure that will help with your decision... Don't assume that just because both offenses have the potential to put up points that they necessarily will. These defenses are #1 and #2 in the NFL in preventing teams from putting points on the board. There's a reason why they've been so good and so consistent throughout the season
Good luck bud
Thanks man you as well!!
I like the over for a few reasons, none really statistical or anything.
I find that most super bowls go over unless they set the line way to high like last year.. But here we have the Defense taking center stage which would say UNDER to the general public,, so I think it will go over this time.. I dont care too much if the line went down a half point, last year the line went up if I recall.
I feel like the NFL wants a ton of scoring and you are less likely to see a 56 yard TD bomb come back for holding.. they want points in this World Wide TV event.. They will let things go for the sake of ratings and action..You know what I mean?
2nd, these 2 QB's are really really good at avoiding pressure and making plays... Both have speedy WR's and can go down the field in a heartbeat and its on turf without wind and snow mud so if the QB's get loose, and from what i have seen - they will. Lots of passes in this game. Also they do not know each other like the bears and pack did.. 2 of the 3 Pack playoff games went over the #.
I think Rodgers will have a much better game than he had vs Chicago.. Steelers are unlikely to get blanked in 2nd H and amazingly (Thanks to the DEFENSE ) that game went over last week even though one team had 0 points in the 2nd H.
I like the over for a few reasons, none really statistical or anything.
I find that most super bowls go over unless they set the line way to high like last year.. But here we have the Defense taking center stage which would say UNDER to the general public,, so I think it will go over this time.. I dont care too much if the line went down a half point, last year the line went up if I recall.
I feel like the NFL wants a ton of scoring and you are less likely to see a 56 yard TD bomb come back for holding.. they want points in this World Wide TV event.. They will let things go for the sake of ratings and action..You know what I mean?
2nd, these 2 QB's are really really good at avoiding pressure and making plays... Both have speedy WR's and can go down the field in a heartbeat and its on turf without wind and snow mud so if the QB's get loose, and from what i have seen - they will. Lots of passes in this game. Also they do not know each other like the bears and pack did.. 2 of the 3 Pack playoff games went over the #.
I think Rodgers will have a much better game than he had vs Chicago.. Steelers are unlikely to get blanked in 2nd H and amazingly (Thanks to the DEFENSE ) that game went over last week even though one team had 0 points in the 2nd H.
GL buddy
These are just some of my VERY SAME sentiments. THIS game IS going over the total!
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Quote Originally Posted by Gold_Rush:
Thanks man you as well!!
I like the over for a few reasons, none really statistical or anything.
I find that most super bowls go over unless they set the line way to high like last year.. But here we have the Defense taking center stage which would say UNDER to the general public,, so I think it will go over this time.. I dont care too much if the line went down a half point, last year the line went up if I recall.
I feel like the NFL wants a ton of scoring and you are less likely to see a 56 yard TD bomb come back for holding.. they want points in this World Wide TV event.. They will let things go for the sake of ratings and action..You know what I mean?
2nd, these 2 QB's are really really good at avoiding pressure and making plays... Both have speedy WR's and can go down the field in a heartbeat and its on turf without wind and snow mud so if the QB's get loose, and from what i have seen - they will. Lots of passes in this game. Also they do not know each other like the bears and pack did.. 2 of the 3 Pack playoff games went over the #.
I think Rodgers will have a much better game than he had vs Chicago.. Steelers are unlikely to get blanked in 2nd H and amazingly (Thanks to the DEFENSE ) that game went over last week even though one team had 0 points in the 2nd H.
GL buddy
These are just some of my VERY SAME sentiments. THIS game IS going over the total!
Exceptional! I was heavy on PIT but I also played your teaser. TY. I rewatched the GB game and indeed with a healthy Cutler CHI there existed a strong possibility of winning the game. Drive after drive a back up QB drove on GB to eventually to throw INTs while the GB offense was completely shut down. Both PIT and GB offenses lost momentum in the 2nd half and now a two week lay off while two excellent defenses get 2 weeks to prepare.
What are your feelings on another teaser PIT and the under?
Looks like great 'value' to me.
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Quote Originally Posted by FleshGordun:
Exceptional! I was heavy on PIT but I also played your teaser. TY. I rewatched the GB game and indeed with a healthy Cutler CHI there existed a strong possibility of winning the game. Drive after drive a back up QB drove on GB to eventually to throw INTs while the GB offense was completely shut down. Both PIT and GB offenses lost momentum in the 2nd half and now a two week lay off while two excellent defenses get 2 weeks to prepare.
What are your feelings on another teaser PIT and the under?
but I respectfully disagree.
)
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