thanks buddy. You have a week and half to decide. The line shouldn't get much lower and I only see it going up. There'll be plenty of other info out there to make your decision easier (or maybe harder actually) come closer to game-time..
Yeah, that shouldn't happen until either the 2nd half or if they're down by 10+ points early. I see this being a very close game throughout so feel that the Steelers won't abandon the run early.
Yes, Vegas has been making a lot of $$ with UNDERS and the UNDERDOGS hitting in the past 10 years. Covers has a great article on that on their home-page actually. Very interesting...
Superb write-up, if not just a touch too long-winded, but that's just me lol... great job, and while I too like the Under 45 in this game, just don't forget that just one defensive score can send the total over the number... I know, I know, sounds simple enough, and we have ALL been "moosed" at one time or another on a late defensive pick-6 or fumble-recovery that resulted in a TD or even a meaningless FG. I only bring it up bc both teams have so much speed and reliable hands in their respective secondaries, I mean, C-Wood and Polamalu aren't the only ones who make plays for these teams, even big ole Raji for GB managed to pick one off and take it to the house last week, nearly wrecking a CERTAIN Under last week @ Chicago... to wit, in PITT's last SB win vs AZ, James Harrison rumbled 98yds to paydirt on a red-zone turnover to end the 1st half... Steelers Ryan Clark and Ike Taylor both have wheels for Pittsburgh, while Trumand W. has already notched 3 ints for GB and Shields had two of his own vs the Bears just last week.
I guess I am echoing that both teams have play-makers all over their respective defenses, and who wouldn't look to make a name for themselves should they get their paws on the pigskin and try to return it for a TD regardless of the score or moment in the game? That kind of play can earn you a SB MVP and earn you $$$ down the line, am I right?
For the record, I am on the Under as well, I am seeing something like PITT 26 GB 17 --- provided there aren't any defensive TDs; however, if someone were to tell me that there would definitely be at least one defensive score in the game, that would likely scare me off the Under 45. But at least in THIS case, both teams seem to take decent care of the football and neither QB puts it up for grabs very often... but we all know that if the Packers want to win, they will have to throw more often than they would probably like, and that fact alone suggests that at least one Aaron Rodgers INT is probably in the offing, and you'd better hope #43 isn't on the receiving end...
Again, outstanding freaking analysis, I will be referring all of my wagering friends to read this thread in its entirety before putting one penny on the total...
...lastly and just for the record, while not documented here on covers, I correctly predicted last week to my buds who were IN Vegas for the AFC/NFC championships, that the GB/CHI game would go Under, eventhough some folks expected a higher scoring affair, and that the NYJ/PITT game would indeed go Over, despite both teams having stout defenses and solid running games... went contrarian for a varity of reasons; in any event, I have had my finger firmly on the pulse of the totals so far during this postseason in particular and helped my friends hit some nice parlays/total bets last weekend...
awesome write up, loads of good info. I liked the under before, now I love it.
the only thing is I hate routing for a low scoring game, I'd rather route for scores and tds to make it exciting. I do like $$ more though. Not sure if I should lock in under 44.5 or wait to see if it goes up...just don't want it to go down
Superb write-up, if not just a touch too long-winded, but that's just me lol... great job, and while I too like the Under 45 in this game, just don't forget that just one defensive score can send the total over the number... I know, I know, sounds simple enough, and we have ALL been "moosed" at one time or another on a late defensive pick-6 or fumble-recovery that resulted in a TD or even a meaningless FG. I only bring it up bc both teams have so much speed and reliable hands in their respective secondaries, I mean, C-Wood and Polamalu aren't the only ones who make plays for these teams, even big ole Raji for GB managed to pick one off and take it to the house last week, nearly wrecking a CERTAIN Under last week @ Chicago... to wit, in PITT's last SB win vs AZ, James Harrison rumbled 98yds to paydirt on a red-zone turnover to end the 1st half... Steelers Ryan Clark and Ike Taylor both have wheels for Pittsburgh, while Trumand W. has already notched 3 ints for GB and Shields had two of his own vs the Bears just last week.
I guess I am echoing that both teams have play-makers all over their respective defenses, and who wouldn't look to make a name for themselves should they get their paws on the pigskin and try to return it for a TD regardless of the score or moment in the game? That kind of play can earn you a SB MVP and earn you $$$ down the line, am I right?
For the record, I am on the Under as well, I am seeing something like PITT 26 GB 17 --- provided there aren't any defensive TDs; however, if someone were to tell me that there would definitely be at least one defensive score in the game, that would likely scare me off the Under 45. But at least in THIS case, both teams seem to take decent care of the football and neither QB puts it up for grabs very often... but we all know that if the Packers want to win, they will have to throw more often than they would probably like, and that fact alone suggests that at least one Aaron Rodgers INT is probably in the offing, and you'd better hope #43 isn't on the receiving end...
Again, outstanding freaking analysis, I will be referring all of my wagering friends to read this thread in its entirety before putting one penny on the total...
Yes, you're absolutely right with regards to a defensive score, but I've covered the fact that both teams are very good at protecting the ball in my write-up. Can it still happen? Of course! But I don't think it will though.
I was curious so I pulled up some stats. There were 512 NFL games this season. Out of all of those games, there were 22 fumble returns for TD's by a defense (surprisingly Arizona had 7 of those; GB had 1 and PIT 0) and 57 INT's returned for TD's (3 by GB and 3 by PIT). That's about 15% chance. If you add punt returns for TD's 13 (zero for both GB and PIT) and Kickoff return TD's 23 (1 PIT and 0 GB), then a chance for a defensive or ST touchdown was around 22% this season or about 1 in every 5 games. Obviously the fact that both QB's and both teams in general, are really good at protecting the ball, reduces that risk even further. Of course that possibility will always exist, but it has a fairly small chance of occuring during the Super Bowl...
...lastly and just for the record, while not documented here on covers, I correctly predicted last week to my buds who were IN Vegas for the AFC/NFC championships, that the GB/CHI game would go Under, eventhough some folks expected a higher scoring affair, and that the NYJ/PITT game would indeed go Over, despite both teams having stout defenses and solid running games... went contrarian for a varity of reasons; in any event, I have had my finger firmly on the pulse of the totals so far during this postseason in particular and helped my friends hit some nice parlays/total bets last weekend...
Nice job. I also really liked the UNDER in the bears/packers game last week. I didn't play it because it dropped from my preferred # of 44, but I did have an 'action' wager on the UNDER 21.5 in the first half in that one. I was also leaning OVER in the Jets/Steelers game as my model predicted a 25-18 score in that one (43 total points)
Nice job helping your buddies win some $$. I'm sure they're greatful. Good luck to you bud. Win lots of $$!!
the only thing is I hate routing for a low scoring game, I'd rather route for scores and tds to make it exciting.
That's how Vegas makes a lot of $$ on SuperBowl's and other 'big' events. Everyone loves 'high-scoring' affairs and it's a lot more fun to cheer for lots of points, then for defensive battles. I get it. If you think the UNDER is a good play, but want to cheer for a lot of points, my suggestion is just don't bet the total. You'll enjoy the game that much more.... Pick a side (I still feel it's a coin-flip), bet a 'really small amount'and enjoy the game! :) Good luck bud!
Good luck buddy. Yeah, agree with you here -- controlling oneself during SuperBowl is one of the hardest things to do. I have to constantly repeat to myself that it's just another game....
Yeah, tough decision. You could 'middle it' straight up but if Steelers lose by 11 then you automatically lose both bets. If Steelers cover and one of the O/U bets losses, then you lose juice overall. You could just bet the 'new' teaser at your regular amount plus whatever it would take to cover the loss on the original one. Then, your new wager is Steelers +10 with the UNDER, and you're still leaving a 'middle' open for both to hit....
You have a week and half to decide so no rush. I'm sure you'll find another analysis by then that favors the OVER so then you won't have any decision to make hehe... Good luck buddy!
Established in 1995,
Hot Forum Topics
